@Habitual_Bliss @ZeeContrarian1 lmao we already bombed Kharg Island, what is bombing it again supposed to accomplish?
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Parenti Soundsystem 🇵🇸
19.1K posts
Parenti Soundsystem 🇵🇸
@ParentiSoundSys
It's time we give less emphasis to how stupid these people supposedly are, and more attention to how vicious and relentless and uncompromising they are. -MP
Beigetreten Haziran 2013
2.5K Folgt2.4K Follower
@ZeeContrarian1 Is the real solution to bomb kharg island, to get it over with?
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𝗗𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗼 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮. 𝗗𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗼 𝗜𝘀𝗿𝗮𝗲𝗹. 𝗗𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘂𝗻𝗻𝗶 𝗚𝘂𝗹𝗳 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀.
Before anything else, understand this:
This is not a strategy.
This is an ideology.
It’s been stated openly, repeated for decades, and built into the system itself. This doesn’t change because of a negotiation or a signed document.
And it’s not just geopolitical-it’s also sectarian. The divide between Shiite Iran and the Sunni Gulf states isn’t a detail. It’s part of the foundation.
Lately, you hear more gulf states quietly pushing the U.S. to “finish the job.”
And when you actually think about it, it becomes obvious why.
Because they understand the reality on the ground better than anyone.
So when people talk about a “peace deal,” they’re missing the point.
The worst possible outcome here is a deal where Iran stays in control of the Strait of Hormuz.
That’s not peace.
That’s just a pause.
Because if you leave the leverage intact-then nothing has actually changed.
And everyone will understand exactly what it means: it’s only a matter of time before we’re back here again. Maybe not next year-maybe not even five years but it becomes inevitable.
Markets will price it that way.
You’re not going to get real long-term investment in the Gulf under that reality. Every refinery, every pipeline, every port, every piece of infrastructure carries a massive risk premium. Because at any moment, they can rearm, escalate, hit oil facilities again, or choke off the Strait.
And oil will reflect it as Larry Fink explains below.
Not because supply is gone-but because risk is permanent.
Gulf oil won’t trade like normal oil anymore. It trades like oil with a timer on it.
As long as the world believes it’s just a matter of time before escalation returns, before infrastructure is hit again, before shipping is threatened again - prices won’t normalize.
You don’t get cheap, stable energy out of a fundamentally unstable system.
So capital won’t treat it as stable either.
It becomes a region where everything looks investable on paper, but nothing is truly investable in size.
That’s why a half-solution doesn’t solve anything. It just guarantees the next conflict.
A deal like that isn’t stability-it’s an intermission.
And the problem with intermissions is that everyone knows the next act is coming.
So the real question isn’t whether you can sign a deal.
The real question is: does anything in that deal actually remove the risk?
Because if the answer is no, then all you’ve done is delay the inevitable, and make the next crisis even bigger.
Open Source Intel@Osint613
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink: "If the war stops but Iran remains a threat… we could face oil above $100, even near $150 for years." On the global outlook: "We’re going to have a global recession."
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@ZeeContrarian1 "that's not X, it's Y" blahblahblah
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@conor64 I was made to strap useless masks on my preschoolers despite complete lack of any solid science demonstrating a benefit or investigating whether it might be harmful. "You can't trust VAERS" i.e. "we have no vaccine monitoring system of record" but their safety was unquestionable.
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A question for everyone: survey data suggests that by the end of the Covid-19 emergency trust in public health institutions had decreased significantly. If you are among the people who reacted that way, why specifically? I'm hoping for long, diverse, individualized answers.
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@michaellistman seems obvious that ground troops will mean a very extended closure of Strait of Hormuz which is pretty disastrous for the global economy, but the sort of idiots who believed killing Khamenei meant the war was done might be temporarily convinced that reopening the Strait is easy
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So here's me thinking there's a 'Houston we have a problem' on our hands. At this point we've seen multiple TACO events, so we're familiar with the footprints. Let's go over this past (only 🙄) 5 days:
>Sat 8pm, rage tweeting of a 48hr red line ultimatum
>Faced with his own deadline for action with only 12hrs to go, TACO delivery that postpones action for another 5 days and produces an $SPX rally of 250pts
>Market continues selloff, so holds a live cabinet meeting to let everyone know how well things are going.
>Market unhappy with meeting and dumps almost 2%
>Fresh TACO delivery to postpone action for an additional 10 days
>Market reaction is now only 80pts to the upside and QUICKLY faded giving back half within minutes.
>Crude and Bond markets tracked step for step with equities on all these moves
Now what?
Just like in his first term, when reactions to China tariff tweets gradually diminished as traders got hip to the playbook, it seems we might be now demanding more significant TACOs.
Simple statements like last Friday's "as we consider winding down" no longer fuel rallies like they have in the past. The market is telling the administration that it now needs overstuffed TACOs to be satisfied. 😋
I have no clue how this plays out. Ground troops sent in or not? And will the market interpret that as bullish or bearish? (and I've heard rational arguments for both) Will either side offer anything that smells like compromise? 🤷♂️
Like I always explain how an elevated $VIX (think near 30 and above) needs ever increasing uncertainty to stay elevated, future TACOs will similarly require larger and larger portions of meat. I also know that people get more desperate when their methods stop working and a clock is ticking.
Don't bother trying to excuse the actions of the administration (pointless), this is about the indisputable market reactions and what is required out of our admin to end the financial bloodletting.
UVXYTrader@michaellistman
I don't know which ones of you are doing this, but if ya'll going to start fading TACO deliveries within mere minutes, I'm going to give them up. 🙄
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@BartoszMilewski @DenVividly the United States kills people in ICE prisons by allowing septic teeth to go untreated
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@ParentiSoundSys @DenVividly You are in the USA enjoying the freedom to criticize the government. If you tried the same in Iran, you'd be dead. So don't defend the genocidal regime. Enjoy your freedom.
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@MarkJCarney man you don't even get a grey check for abasing yourself like this?
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Canada shares its condolences with the UAE following the latest Iranian attack that took the lives of two civilians in Abu Dhabi.
We strongly condemn Iran’s unprovoked attacks on the UAE and across the region, and reiterate the importance of opening secure access through the Strait of Hormuz. Canada supports efforts to safeguard international shipping and ensure freedom of navigation.
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@THE__WAC @saifedean yes the people who are also owned by the Epstein set would definitely have released the Epstein files
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@saifedean Mmm if they had evidence of Trump doing bad stuff, they definitely would’ve released those files.
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@BartoszMilewski @DenVividly stop uncritically swallowing Western propaganda, if the "protests" had succeeded Israel would be dismantling Iran just like Syria & Libya as we speak
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@ParentiSoundSys @DenVividly Now you're being delusional blaming Mossad for mass protests against the incompetent and brutal regime who slaughtered thousand of its own citizens.
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More than 100 girls between the ages of seven and 12 were killed. Someone decided to compress the kill chain. Someone decided that deliberation was latency. Someone decided to build a system that produces 1,000 targeting decisions an hour and call them high-quality
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@AlbertoWeinric1 @ZeeContrarian1 let me know when the Strait is back open
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@ParentiSoundSys @ZeeContrarian1 It must be hard for you guys seeing how the all powerful Iranians are eating American dick
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I hope we all understand that any major move on Iran is likely a net positive, regardless of the outcome - not immediately, but usually within a week.
This should be seen as a strong buying opportunity.
There’s nothing markets hate more than uncertainty, and right now we’re at peak uncertainty.
Z@ZeeContrarian1
𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗠𝗲𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗰𝗸𝗲𝗻 I want to start by giving Iran credit. In my Samson theory below, before the war began, I wrote that one possible scenario was that Iran would try to pull a Samson. If they felt cornered, they might try to hurt everyone around them and drag the region down with them. What actually happened is not exactly Samson, but it is close. Instead of pure destruction, Iran made a very rational move. Iran cannot defeat the United States militarily. The only real lever they have is oil. Their survival does not depend on winning the war. It depends on spiking oil toward 200 and creating pressure inside the United States. If oil goes high enough, Trump will face serious domestic pressure. So that is exactly what they are trying to do in any way possible, including bombing their own allies. I give them credit. It is a smart move. They are betting that Trump might chicken out if oil spikes hard enough. If oil reaches 200, that scenario becomes very real. For Iran, this is the only asymmetric weapon they have against a far superior adversary. Now we are entering a real game of chicken. Trump can signal that he is ready to destroy or take over Kharg Island. If that happens it is basically game over for Iran Islamic Regime. Iran on the other side is trying to push oil toward 200. If that happens it could become game over for Trump politically. Both sides escalating further means a crash scenario. It also seems that Israel and the United States may not have identical objectives in this war. Israel appears to want regime change. Trump has midterms. He cannot afford oil at 200. For Trump, two things would likely be enough to claim victory in this war. First, getting the enriched uranium out of Iran and proving that their nuclear capabilities have been destroyed. Second, pushing the longer range ballistic missile program back years, if not decades. There is no doubt that Israel and the United States are winning the military side of this war. Iran has already taken significant damage from these strikes that will take many years to recover. The real question is what Iran does next. It seems Iran understands the situation. Their priority now is probably survival of the regime. They also understand that Trump will want a fast win. So their strategy may be to absorb the damage while creating nuisance and pressure for another month or two, but not going all the way by closing the Strait of Hormuz, which would force Trump to take or destroy Kharg Island, hoping the Americans eventually settle for a deal. That is where the game theory becomes very real.
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@H1GHangleHELL @ripplebrain And don't forget the WMD now ☢️! but remember - no Hateful Conduct
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1. Surround Iran with military bases
2. When a war with Iran happens you can't even use them because they're too close to Iran
3. Eliminate Iran
4. Now that Iran is gone we don't need the bases anymore
GIF
HIGHangleHELL@H1GHangleHELL
@planefag Another thing they don’t consider is that once the Iranian threat is eliminated those bases become irrelevant
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@DenVividly @BartoszMilewski oh noooooo not my heckin innocent Mossad-backed protestors trying to knock over a country's government so it could become Syria 2.0
also not accurately described as a "mistake" for all the reasons Bartosz already laid out
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@BartoszMilewski This was a mistake, a tragedy
You're using your voice to protect the killers thar *ordered* the killing of at least 5000 innocent protesters.
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@spx_up_n_down @ZeeContrarian1 "I should get to comment on politics without being challenged or called out" is also typical Israeli narcissism
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@ParentiSoundSys @ZeeContrarian1 Like I said, leave your politics at home, it’s his FEED lmao
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@spx_up_n_down @ZeeContrarian1 "any major move on Iran is likely a net positive, regardless of outcome" oh yeah for sure totally apolitical lmao
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@ParentiSoundSys @ZeeContrarian1 Dude, Z was commenting on the market. Leave your politics at home !
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@LubosSpousta @ZeeContrarian1 beating Iran is a pipe dream
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@ZeeContrarian1 Beating Iran is positive but valuations are at record levels, broken technical picture, poor macro before war already, fund redemptions and energy supply damage which will stay for some time. Only positive point is AI rush remaining. 2026 might easilly be like 2007
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@k42594 @ripplebrain do you also still believe in Santa Claus?
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@ripplebrain Good, at that point bring them home. Reduce military spending, use for domestic needs. What's wrong with that?
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@doingracisms @JohnAmicability @poordart I am very smart, that's why I like to give everyone on Elon Musk's X the maximum level of geolocation data possible and insist on capitalizing the word "White" like an identitarian freak
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@ParentiSoundSys @JohnAmicability @poordart "North America Android app"
Leave the thinking to the White man, Mexican.
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Killing some guy is definitely gonna re-open the strait
Are these people retarded?
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
ISRAELI MEDIA: ELIMINATION OF THE OFFICIAL RESPONSIBLE FOR CLOSING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, ALI REZA TАНКSIRI
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@ThePrimeagen "scum billionaires who literally advocate against self-reflection want me to hate communism, but I'm not going to let this alter the view of it that I was handed by Hollywood movies and McGraw Hill textbooks published by Ghislaine Maxwell's dad"
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Never going to introspect again
Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸@pmarca
Evidently introspection also causes communism.
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@doingracisms @JohnAmicability @poordart lmao people actually think 5000 Marines are going to pry open the Strait of Hormuz, it's hilarious
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@JohnAmicability @poordart Ground forces arriving Friday. Stay tuned. Big surprises this weekend.
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@davebudge how dare he, the American Pedophile Reich is entitled to do whatever it wants, wherever it wants!
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Anyone wonder why Putin is helping Iran?
NEXTA@nexta_tv
🤬Oil keeps flowing — war feeds the Kremlin. While the world burns, Vladimir Putin cashes in Russia is profiting from the new escalation in the Middle East. As tensions around Iran push oil prices up, demand for Russian crude is rising as well. According to The Telegraph, the Kremlin is making around $760 million a day.
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