Charles K Loyd

@DrMohsenSM @sentdefender That's exactly why they did it. The public back-and- forth between both parties is not constructive. Make a deal, don't make a deal. Consequences locked in either way.

@sentdefender TRUMP vs IRGC: Trump says the Strait is opening; the IRGC just forced 3 ships to turn around at gunpoint to prove him wrong.

The IRGC has rejected U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s characterization of talks, denying the “big present” that the president announced yesterday, saying “ This morning, following the false statements of the corrupt U.S. president claiming that the Strait of Hormuz is open, three container ships of different nationalities moved toward the designated corridor for authorized vessel traffic, but were turned back after warnings from the IRGC Navy,”

@Osint613 In Texas it's hard to see how it even got TO the planning stage to be canceled.

Plans to establish an Islamic “Sharia City” (EPIC City) in Texas have been canceled by Texas AG.

@Osint613 Ok they have made it clear that they are not negotiating and in fact are treating the US as the defeated party. So what now? Do we get into a back-and-forth of "you lost!", no YOU lost!"? Just stop and hand out "participation trophies" to everyone.

Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi: “No negotiations with the Americans exist.” “Our senior officials have received their messages, and it will be decided whether any response is necessary.” “The very fact that the Americans are talking about negotiations is an admission of defeat.”

@TheChadLedger @Osint613 I think so but the cost of "winning" will be high. It always is.

@Osint613 They won’t make the deal. We all know it. If we let this regime stay In command we are making a mistake.

Trump on Iran: They are saying to people this is a disaster. They know it. That's why they are talking to us. They wouldn't talk otherwise. They’re defeated. They can’t make a comeback. If they make the right deal, then the Strait of Hormuz will open up.

@ripplebrain Good, at that point bring them home. Reduce military spending, use for domestic needs. What's wrong with that?

1. Surround Iran with military bases 2. When a war with Iran happens you can't even use them because they're too close to Iran 3. Eliminate Iran 4. Now that Iran is gone we don't need the bases anymore

@bulkeley_john @sentdefender That would be major if true. Might explain the increase in missile launches at them today.

@sentdefender x.com/World_Affairs1… Don't expect green things to grow, because given the hatred the Gulf Arab states, Israel, and the US have for the regime, anything less than almost total surrender will probably be rejected. And the IRGC isn't much into unconditional surrender these days.

According to Iranian state-run media outlets, Iran sent its official response to the U.S. 15-point ceasefire plan last night, and is currently awaiting a response from their U.S. counterparts.

@draken1721 @sentdefender Time's up Friday supposedly. We'll see.

@sentdefender They're stalling. Iran does this every time—send vague responses, claim they're waiting, buy time for proxies. Classic playbook.

@brotherdarul @shanaka86 Good point.

@shanaka86 You do know that a huge proportion (40%) of U.S. corn production is used for ethanol fuel additives, right?

Seven clocks are running. None of them negotiable. All of them counting down to the same weeks. The planting clock. Mid-April is the biological deadline for corn and soybean planting across the US Midwest. Every day that passes without nitrogen becoming affordable and available narrows the window for corn. USDA projects corn falling to 94 million acres from 98.8 million. Soybeans rising to 85 million from 81.2 million. The seeds that go into the ground in the next three weeks determine America’s grain harvest in October. The decision is irreversible. The USDA clock. March 31. Prospective Plantings. The report that converts farmer intentions into official data. Every acreage number, every corn-soy ratio, every nitrogen-dependent calculation becomes a published fact that traders, governments, and food agencies will use to model global supply for the next twelve months. The number arrives in twelve days. The FAO clock. April 3. The Food Price Index. The first global reading that captures post-Hormuz commodity prices across cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat, and sugar. The 2022 peak was 159.7 in March 2022 after Ukraine. This reading will incorporate oil above $100, urea at $610, LNG halted, packaging repriced, and freight surcharges of $500 to $1,500 per container. The number that determines whether the UN declares a food emergency arrives in fifteen days. The pharmaceutical clock. India’s API inventory buffers are two to three months, measured from the war’s onset on February 28. Late May is the depletion window. Methanol at 87.7 percent Hormuz exposure feeds the solvent chain for paracetamol, ibuprofen, metformin, and antibiotics. Once buffers deplete, the shortage becomes a patient access crisis for the 47 percent of US generics that originate in India. The China crude clock. FGE NexantECA confirmed China is drawing commercial reserves at up to one million barrels per day. The draw sustains refinery operations for four to six weeks from March 19. Mid-April to late April is the exhaustion window. After that, China faces three options: accelerate Russian pipeline imports, reroute at massive premium, or crack open the strategic petroleum reserve. The third option reprices every commodity on the planet. The helium clock. SK Hynix and Samsung hold two to three months of helium inventory. Late May to early June is the depletion window. South Korea imports 64.7 percent of its helium from Qatar. Ras Laffan is offline. If helium buffers deplete before alternative supply arrives, semiconductor fabrication faces rationing. The AI hardware supply chain hits a physical wall measured in months, not quarters. The insurance clock. Solvency II requires 30 to 60 days of zero incidents before P&I clubs can reinstate war risk coverage. Even after a ceasefire, the insurance normalisation takes six to sixteen months based on the Red Sea precedent of 26 months and counting. The logistics system lags the financial relief rally by the longest duration of any clock in this crisis. Seven clocks. The shortest expires in twelve days. The longest runs for over a year. The planting window, the USDA report, the FAO index, the drug buffers, the Chinese crude draw, the helium inventory, and the insurance cycle are all counting down simultaneously. None of them pause for diplomacy. None of them respond to presidential directives. None of them read sealed packets. The calendar is the only actor in this war that has never lost a negotiation. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@Tpljmpr @clashreport Most of the last Super Bowl commercials were so bad (especially the Ring security system one) that people might NOT buy the product BECAUSE of the commercials.

@clashreport In finance terms, this is a horrible ROI. How much did it cost to hit 15,000 targets? And no strategic outcomes? That is like saying 5 million people saw our television advertisement during the Super Bowl half time show, but not one person bought our product.

Former U.S. Sec. of Defense Jim Mattis on Iran War: 15,000 targets have been hit. There have been significant military successes, but they are not matched by strategic outcomes. Now, some of the strategic outcomes floated early on — unconditional surrender, regime change, “we’re going to dictate who the next supreme leader is” — were clearly nonsense. They were delusional.

@ripplebrain Those would be great to fly around in the backyard and scare the s&@t out of critters digging up the garden! Seriously though that is interesting!

Finally something genuinely new and interesting

@MyLordBebo Any reasonable person recognizes slavery was wrong. It was ended over 150 years ago. The problem is it's now politicized/weaponized against people now who had nothing to do with it. Reparations, etc.

🇺🇳 In a UN resolution voting to recognize the trafficking of enslaved Africans and the racialized enslavement of Africans as the “gravest crime against humanity”… 123 voted in favor, 52 abstained, and 3 voted against: The U.S., Israel, and Argentina.

@ripplebrain Carrier pigeons again. Honestly I haven't watched MSM since covid. When I tried it it just seems like something from another era. Or planet. So far behind and so bad.

23 day lag

@Osint613 That's funny in a dark kind of way.

REUTERS: Regional sources say Tehran has informed mediators it will reject any deal that does not include compensation from Israel to Hezbollah.

@sentdefender Maybe. We'll see shortly. Or not.

According to Reuters, citing sources close to the matter, while Iran has publicly rejected the ceasefire proposal sent by the U.S., they have yet to formally respond to the proposal via key intermediaries like Pakistan, as a senior Pakistani security source has told I24 News that Pakistan is still in the process of following up with their Iranian counterparts.

@NickofMars1 @Osinttechnical You're watching a different strike than the rest of us I guess. Or just sarcasm? Several secondaries and not small ones either.

@Osinttechnical I have to agree....not much of an explosion. And where are the secondary explosions? 🤷

Footage of US aircraft obliterating the Iranian munitions storage facility at Bandar Abbas Airbase.

@DropSiteNews Their position seems clear does it not? Now what? Both sides are trapped. In real terms neither side can win, at this point it's lose-lose for both, thus "trapped".

🔺NEW: Spokesman for Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters addresses the U.S.: 🔹“Have your internal conflicts reached the point where you’re negotiating with yourselves?” 🔹“Don’t call your defeat an ‘agreement’. You will see neither your investments in the region nor previous energy and oil prices return.” 🔹“Until it is our will, nothing will return to how it was. That will only happen when the idea of acting against the Iranian people is completely erased from your minds.” 🔸“Our position from day one has been clear and remains unchanged: someone like us will never come to terms with someone like you — not now, and not ever.”

@sentdefender It's fascinating how Iran keeps clearly rejecting all negotiation points but some people keep ignoring this as if they can't process/accept even that possibility. Fear? In denial?

In addition to Iran’s earlier maximalist pre-conditions for ceasefire talks, Iran is now demanding that the U.S. pay reparations for damage and war losses, something the U.S. is unlikely to do.

@Osint613 @MohamadAhwaze That is, quite obviously, fake news.

Unconfirmed reports from Iran say the regime is sending SMS messages to citizens seeking donations to fund a bounty for the assassination of U.S. President Donald Trump. @mohamadahwaze

@goobfo @Osint613 No one knows and nothing makes sense. Wait for confirmed actions, ignore words.

@Osint613 My feed is literally: >Iran rejected US cease fire agreement. >Oil futures dropped because the end of the war is now priced in. WTF is actually happening lol.

BREAKING 🔴🔴 Iran State TV: Iran has rejected the U.S. 15-point plan.

@Faytuks Their positions and even the way the statement is worded is almost identical to those adopted by Russia regarding Ukraine. Interesting.

Sources tell Iranian state media that the war with the US and Israel can only end when Iran's "strategic goals" are achieved and that negotiations are "not viable under the current conditions" t.me/farsna/423635