Venture Global Deep Dive

Venture Global CEO Mike Sabel. How fast can you ramp up? "We're the fastest builder. We have available capacity at large scale. Just CP2 will generate several hundred billion dollars in sales of gas... We have the lowest long-term contract price available in the US market." $VG

@ShaleTier7 Yes, but you might be able to sell that Silicon Valley fraud in an even bigger fraud, or IPO it to bagholders. That process is what we call GDP.

oh ok nice so silicon valley will value literal fraud at $300mm but my $85mm mackenzie delta wildcat is "too risky" and "isnt what were looking for right now" ooooooooooooooookay then.

@tleilax___ And depends if they have train by train legal entities.

Obviously selectively defaulting / declaring force majeur only on the cheap contracts is not gonna fly in court. Pari passu usually means you have to reduce ALL outstanding commercial contracts by 17% if your claimed force majeure'd disability is 17% of your production. This is assuming the sales were FOB Ras Laffan. If the sales were CnF Japan for example, this would be even more fragile.

The TTF-HH spread has moved up, but not all that much, compared to a week ago. These are not conditions for massive demand destruction (what @ira_joseph says). They are higher prices, for a longer period of time. $NEXT and $LNG benefited from this dynamic today because they have new capacity further out along the curve that will benefit from better SPA negotiation conditions. Changes in 2026 prices don't move the needle for $NEXT because it isn't producing yet.

Attacks on Qatar are turning an expected LNG glut into a scramble for supplies, writes @danmurtaugh bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

@ShaleTier7 @BrandonMyers10 I’d like to introduce you to the model that led me here.

@BrandonMyers10 Hilariously good spot to be in tbh.

Do we think $VG goes to all time highs?

Watching for: 1) More attacks on LNG infrastructure. 2) Timeline to restart surviving infrastructure. 3) Timeline to repair damage. 4) Delay estimate for expansion project.

“Saad al-Kaabi said two of Qatar's 14 LNG trains and one of its two gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities were damaged in the unprecedented strikes. The repairs will sideline 12.8 million tons per year of LNG for three to five years, he said.” “State-owned QatarEnergy may have to declare force majeure on long-term contracts for up to five years for LNG supplies bound for Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China due to the two damaged ‌trains, ⁠Kaabi said.  "I mean, these are long-term contracts that we have to declare force majeure. We already declared, but that was a shorter term. Now it's whatever the period is," he said.” reuters.com/business/energ…

Congratulations to Alaska LNG for being officially certified as "No Longer Crazy" after this month's events. @alaskalng

@Kross_Roads I think the shorts are going to be running for the hills, which might lead to an overshoot.

$VG We have a breakout on LNG futures. TTF (Dutch/EU exchange) is up meaningfully following the news from Qatar yesterday, as is JKM (Japan/Korea; not pictured). The spread between Henry Hub in the US and these keeps widening, to the benefit of Venture Global.

How will we know the extent of damage? @gomatsuo points out that the number of LNG vessels that Nakilat (QatarLNG shipping operator) puts on the market will be a predictor: 10-30 vessels - few months; 40 or more - significant, perhaps years. x.com/gomatsuo/statu…

Qatar after the Iran attack - what's been hit at Rass Laffan for LNG? I overlaid the NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) images with an old master plan of the site. This is as of data available at 5:30am EST. $VG $LNG $NEXT

Zoom in on RasGas.

Zoom in on QatarGas.

QATAR CONFIRMS DAMAGE AT WORLD’S BIGGEST LNG EXPORT PLANT AFTER IRAN ATTACK 🇶🇦 🚨 Ras Laffan supplies 20% of the global LNG market. Most of that supply goes to Asian buyers

@SStapczynski @ira_joseph @LNG_Investor_ "This image is clearer. The fire is occurring at Central: Qatar Energy's Condensate Splitter and part of NFE (North flare stack also has flames) West side: Pearl GTL plant it seems. T6-7 are not from the fire in the last few hours." x.com/gomatsuo/statu…

@Kross_Roads @SStapczynski @ira_joseph @LNG_Investor_ Yes, absolutely. Solidarity with Qatar — when energy infrastructure is a military target, millions will suffer.

@VGDeepDive @SStapczynski @ira_joseph @LNG_Investor_ Yes, and that's more than fair. Even as a $VG holder, I hope they can get back up and running soon. But this probably makes the 1 month to full production after resuming an impossible timeline.

@Kross_Roads @SStapczynski @ira_joseph @LNG_Investor_ Yeah, really hard to know at this stage, and I expect information will be tightly controlled to avoid informing Iranian targeting.

@VGDeepDive @SStapczynski @ira_joseph @LNG_Investor_ Terrible. I hope the damage isn't as bad as the videos seem.