Venture Global Deep Dive
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@VGDeepDive
Independent investor following Venture Global developments. Not affiliated.
🇶🇦Qatar’s expansion plan to raise LNG export capacity from 77 to 126 mtpa was once framed within global gas glut concerns. After 2 wars in 4 years, that outlook has reversed, with the market now shifting toward structural tightness. 🇮🇷Iranian Gas ❌ 🇶🇦Qatar LNG ❌ 🇪🇬Egypt LNG ❌ 🇷🇺Russian Gas and LNG (❌ for EU27) 🇺🇸US LNG ✅
Australia’s LNG producers might face higher taxes if they make too much money 🇦🇺 💰 Prime Minister Albanese has asked Treasury to look into imposing a windfall tax on the country’s vast LNG industry, to capitalize on soaring prices of the fuel bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
More and more people are saying... "Saudi Arabia’s oil officials are working frantically to project how high oil prices might go if the Iran war and its disruption of energy supplies doesn’t end soon—and they don’t like what they are seeing. The base case ... is that prices could soar past $180 a barrel if the disruptions persist until late April."
The European Commission will propose that EU countries cut taxes on electricity and subsidize prices as a quick way to soften the energy price shock caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said reut.rs/4biWjQY
European gas traders are bracing for a prolonged disruption to LNG supplies from Qatar 🇪🇺 ⚠️ Year-ahead TTF contracts have jumped more steeply than the front-month after an attack by Iran on the world’s biggest LNG plant in Qatar (In other words, LNG glut is disappearing)
A detailed and brutal look at the tactics of buzzy AI compliance startup Delve "Delve built a machine designed to make clients complicit without their knowledge, to manufacture plausible deniability while producing exactly the opposite." substack.com/home/post/p-19…
🚨BREAKING: Qatar just declared force majeure on LNG contracts to Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China. For up to 5 years. Here's what the CEO just told In an exclusive interview with Reuters, Qatar's Energy Minister and CEO of QatarEnergy just confirmed the damage from Iran's attack on Ras Laffan. It's worse than anyone thought. → 2 out of 14 LNG trains damaged → 1 of 2 gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities damaged → 12.8 million tonnes per year of LNG offline for 3-5 years → 17% of Qatar's total LNG export capacity gone → $20 billion annual revenue loss → $26 billion in damaged facilities (the CEO said they "should not be attacked") QatarEnergy may declare force majeure on long term LNG supply contracts to: → Italy → Belgium → South Korea → China For up to 5 years. Additional exports declining: → Condensates: Down 24% → LPG: Down 13% → Naphtha: Down 6% → Sulphur: Down 6% → Helium: Down 14% The damaged trains: → Train S4 and S6: 30% owned by ExxonMobil, rest by QatarEnergy Production cannot restart until hostilities cease. What this means? 12.8 million tonnes per year = 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity. 17% of its capacity just disappeared for 3-5 years. Italy, Belgium, South Korea, China: These countries had long-term contracts with Qatar. Force majeure means those contracts are suspended. They now have to compete in spot markets for replacement cargoes. Against each other. And against every other buyer scrambling for LNG. $20 billion per year in lost revenue for Qatar. $26 billion in facilities damaged. The only country with capacity to absorb Qatari volumes at scale is the United States. I wrote a full breakdown on how this shift benefits US LNG producers and which stocks are positioned to win from Qatar's structural supply loss👇 open.substack.com/pub/themerchan… #Iran #Qatar #LNG
