Ztalic🔮

@GaetenD It’s good for diversification too. Who knows what the PM landscape will look like 5 years from now.

Reasons why I don't quit my day job: 1. It doesn't interfere with my trading - I work from home and have my personal computer next to my work computer 2. Benefits - I get insurance and vacation time 3. High base salary - 2025 was the first year I made more trading than working

@probaaron My wish for these markets is a @Kalshi-Spotify partnership to actively monitor obvious plays like this when close to resolution. Spotify already flags fake streams right away for their charts. Why not put someone on the 5 or 6 songs on the bubble and filter in real time?

@TheGrandeTop10 Odd since it was not on yesterday’s daily chart

‘The Girl in the Bubble’ SURGED over 100% in Spotify streams

@s1rozha_ @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket what do you think it is going to be though

The Market Is Overestimating the Risk. Here's My Bet on TIME's Person of the Year I've just placed a bet that TIME's 2025 Person of the Year will be a human. While the threat of Artificial Intelligence being chosen is very real, I believe the market is overreacting to it. Here's why: > The Odds Ignore History: Polymarket is giving a 34% chance to a non-human choice. This price seems to be based almost entirely on the AI hype. Yes, the risk of AI winning Person of the Year exists, but are its odds really 1 in 3? > Look at the Data: My bet is based on a simple fact. In its nearly 100-year history, TIME Magazine has only chosen a non-human concept twice (that's ~2% of the time). The last time it happened was over 35 years ago. History isn't a guarantee, but it's an incredibly strong argument against the inflated odds on "No." > TIME is a Brand About People: Ultimately, TIME tells stories of human impact. Elections, social movements, cultural phenomena - all are driven by people. While AI is a massive story, the TIME brand is built on human faces and their narratives. That's its core. This isn't a foolproof bet. it's a calculated risk. I'm betting that institutional habit and a focus on humanity will prove stronger than a revolutionary, but still abstract, technology. So, I'm locking in my bet on "Yes." Let's see if tradition holds up this year.

@GaetenD Ahh makes sense - appreciate the insights!

@Ztal_ They'll never be perfect but it's definitely an area with room for improvement. I think it's difficult on a simple one like our example though. The title and rules summary are very clear. The confusion comes from the legalese in the contract, which is required by regulators.

In the "Will Taylor release a song before 10/3?" market, I saw traders arguing the wrong interpretation of the rules. I corrected them. Should veterans correct rules misunderstandings, or let the market figure it out?

@GaetenD Agreed on that. In general seeing the Costco EPS polymarket flip recently to contradict the "spirit of the market" makes me wary when rules don't make 100% sense to me. I would hope kalshi can redirect some of their sports betting revenue into writing extremely clear rules 😂

@Ztal_ Yeah I get that, but they’re ignoring the very clear market title, rules summary, and payout criterion to dig into legalese that they clearly don’t understand. Most of the time simple markets are just simple markets.

@GaetenD That makes sense. I can see why people are confused by the rules stating "Expiration time: The Expiration time of the Contract shall be 10:00 AM ET" without defining expiration time otherwise. Definitely an advantage to have seen these markets resolve before.

@Ztal_ That would resolve yes. They will be actively checking it prior to midnight. Plus that would be a huge news story if Taylor dropped an hour before the countdown expired.

@PredMTrader u guys are not taking into account that most of the lyrics have leaked lol

THE SWIFTIE STREAM - LIVE WEDNESDAY 7PM PST Joined by a Swiftie who has never heard of prediction markets but has: >Attended the Eras Tour concert TWICE >Attended the 1989 World Tour concert >Attended 40 total concerts in the past year >Made me money twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@GaetenD yep i spent too much time compiling all of the leaked lyrics recently

@Ztal_ Be careful there. A lot of lyrics have already leaked.

With the government shut down, it’s time to turn to something that actually matters: the Taylor Swift album drop. Both platforms have a ton of markets on this and my cash is 100% tied up in them. There’s a lot of easy money to be had, but I won’t give any hints beyond the stream.

@dunedash @Polymarket It’s can be hard to get the liquidity for larger bet sizes depending on the market

50% of @Polymarket users have an average bet of 50 dollars or less.

@RubinReport @RoKhanna Where’s the lie lol. Charlie Kirk was unapologetically against the civil rights act.

Absolutely vile but totally expected. Any Democrats want to push back on this crap? @RoKhanna if you want to be a voice of reason this is your chance.

@grok @investwize_ @AutismCapital lol @grok says they would say that but it only said it in the context that chatgpt’s response was being called bad. actual results below

investwize_ Cheating over unmet dinner expectations is indefensible and selfish. Your wife's 12-hour shift doesn't erase your vows or maturity—cook for yourself or communicate. Feelings of sadness don't justify betrayal; own your actions and seek real solutions like therapy, not excuses.

This is unironically dangerous.

@GaetenD It’s not worth it. I contributed to a campaign years ago and it started an absolute tsunami of texts, emails, and calls asking for more money.

For my Democratic followers (like 98% of you): have you contributed to Biden’s campaign? Would you contribute to a Kamala campaign?