Alexandra Macedo 🇪🇺🇮🇹
122.7K posts
@alegianedo
“And we don’t bow to foreign pressure either. We protect Europeans. 🇪🇺⚖️” (Veronika Cifrova, MEP)
"I have studied every air campaign since WWI... I've modelled the bombing of Fordow and regime change in Iran for 20 years... We are now in the grip of the escalation trap... This has never worked in over 100 years... Trump is up against the weight of history" - @ProfessorPape.
Historian @TimothyDSnyder sums up a year of Trump choices and policies in one overall conceptual framework, which he calls “Superpower suicide.”
My gut tells me that, if we go back to war in the gulf, the Houthis would join the Iranians from the start. And not just with a Red Sea blockade. But more militarily significantly, with a comprehensive attack on US bases in Eastern Saudi Arabia. Again, the model is 1950, as Schelling understood. When uniformed Chinese forces joined the battle, they did so with overwhelming force. A version of the Powell doctrine, if you will. It is already possible for the Iranians to hope to push US forces out of the gulf altogether. That is the real Houthi weapon for Tehran. Not the Red Sea blockade.
Iran Improves Short-Range Air Defenses and Shares Data with Russia During the 15 days of truce, Iran made improvements to some of its short-range air defenses (SHORAD), primarily the Qaem-118 (also spelled Ghaem-118), which proved effective against MALE drones. The Qaem-118 is a system that uses three simultaneous tracking methods: radar, electro-optical, and thermal (infrared). This allows it to operate in passive mode, detecting targets without emitting radar signals. During the 15 days of truce, Iranian engineers applied software updates to the system’s processors to improve signal filtering, after analyzing radar and heat data collected during confrontations with F-35s and MQ-9 drones in the previous weeks. In addition, they implemented datalink integration to connect the Qaem-118 to mobile radars, receiving the target’s position via radio and activating its own sensors only in the final second before launch Another system that will be seen more frequently is the 358 missile and its successor, the 359. The 358 is a missile that loiters at low speed to engage drones and helicopters. During the 15-day pause, the focus was on updating the image recognition algorithm. Since modern drones like the MQ-9 attempt to reduce their heat signature, Iran applied software corrections so that the 358’s sensor can detect smaller temperature differences against the sky background. Integration with radars was also carried out, as was done with the Qaem-118. Now the 358 is no longer launched blindly. It has been integrated into the network of short- and medium-range mobile ground radars. The radar detects the enemy drone and sends the 358 to the exact coordinates. The missile flies there in silence and only activates its thermal seeker once it is already in the kill zone. Iran emphasizes that this integration happens quickly because these SHORAD systems already use compatible communication protocols. What was accomplished in the 15 days was the physical installation of datalink kits and antennas that were already in stock but had not yet been distributed to all front-line units, which were also trained for this use. And what changes in the 359 version? The 359 uses the Tolou-10 turbojet engine, which makes it faster than the original 358. It can operate above 9,000 meters, enabling it to reach large aircraft such as refueling tankers and radar planes (AWACS) that fly at altitudes the 358 could not efficiently reach. In addition, it has a range of up to 150 km and has abandoned the complex laser proximity sensors of the 358 in favor of a more powerful warhead and more modern thermal imaging guidance systems focused on ignoring countermeasures (flares). Theoretically, this means the repeated scenes of aircraft releasing flares and evading missiles seen in the first phase of the war should no longer occur. We’ll see. All these improvements and the increase in deployed units may be what the Iranians are calling the “little surprise.” Join my Substack to read the full article: open.substack.com/pub/global21/p…
"I have studied every air campaign since WWI... I've modelled the bombing of Fordow and regime change in Iran for 20 years... We are now in the grip of the escalation trap... This has never worked in over 100 years... Trump is up against the weight of history" - @ProfessorPape.
Iran would not be deprived of targets if the US withdrew its troops and ships. They would be able to apply pressure on the GCC countries to spin them completely from Washington's orbit, while taking on Israel directly. More importantly, Hormuz would fall firmly under Tehran's control. Sanctions would no longer be within US power: instead, they would be removed by default, as desperate nation after desperate nation (on the sell as well as the buy side of the oil trade) made bilateral deals with Iran to get the black gold flowing again. The unilateral withdrawal theory thus works no more clearly today than it did six weeks ago. Perhaps it is now the least worst option, but it would be indistinguishable from a strategic defeat. Trump attacked to gain control; instead, he relinquished it.
Professor Pape’s analysis is sharp. I agree with most of what he lays out in this interview & his substack. I’m advocating for us to walk now to avoid further escalation, sanctions relief can be used to encourage Iran to open the SOH. Our top goal now should be avoiding the plunge into a prolonged conflict.
Please learn to ask the right questions. First, nuclear weapons, navy and ground forces are not the issue. The issue is ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones; and the threat they pose to US bases and the surface fleet. Second, the math considerably worse than reported. The issue is not just that deterrence in Asia in dead; although it certainly is. The immediate issue is that the US can no longer be confident that prosecuting even a months-long war will disarm Iran. Given the reconstitution rate of Iranian strike capabilities and the depletion of the US magazine, it is probable that we will run out the weapons before Iranian capabilities are anywhere close to being degraded. The reason is the asymmetry of goals. In order to hold on the US empire in the gulf, the US has to do what the hasbara commissars are demanding — ‘finish the job’. The Iranians just need to avoid getting disarmed for then they can retain control of Hormuz. As I have previously explained, we’re watching the empire die because the balance of power has been revealed to be vastly less favorable than was hitherto believed to be the case: x.com/policytensor/s…
Please learn to ask the right questions. First, nuclear weapons, navy and ground forces are not the issue. The issue is ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones; and the threat they pose to US bases and the surface fleet. Second, the math considerably worse than reported. The issue is not just that deterrence in Asia in dead; although it certainly is. The immediate issue is that the US can no longer be confident that prosecuting even a months-long war will disarm Iran. Given the reconstitution rate of Iranian strike capabilities and the depletion of the US magazine, it is probable that we will run out the weapons before Iranian capabilities are anywhere close to being degraded. The reason is the asymmetry of goals. In order to hold on the US empire in the gulf, the US has to do what the hasbara commissars are demanding — ‘finish the job’. The Iranians just need to avoid getting disarmed for then they can retain control of Hormuz. As I have previously explained, we’re watching the empire die because the balance of power has been revealed to be vastly less favorable than was hitherto believed to be the case: x.com/policytensor/s…
For nearly four decades, NATO’s eyes in the sky have been American. The Boeing E-3 Sentry, a militarized 707 with a rotating radar dish on top, has been the alliance’s airborne early warning backbone since the 1980s. Washington built it. Washington sold it. Washington serviced it. That era ended this week. NATO’s Support and Procurement Agency has selected the Swedish Saab GlobalEye to replace all 14 of the alliance’s aging E-3 aircraft, in a deal worth around 5 billion euros. The contract goes to Sweden and Canada. Not a single American company involved. The decision follows the US cancelling its own E-7 Wedgetail procurement in June 2025, shifting instead toward satellite surveillance under the Golden Dome concept. When Washington pulled out, it assumed NATO would wait. NATO didn’t wait. The GlobalEye uses a fixed AESA radar rather than the E-3’s rotating dish, enabling faster target detection across air, sea, and land at ranges exceeding 550 kilometres, with endurance of over 13 hours per sortie. It is smaller, cheaper to operate, and requires fewer crew. Unit cost sits at roughly 550 million euros, against significantly higher estimates for the E-7. France had already ordered two. Poland and Germany were circling. Now NATO has formalised it for the whole alliance. Trump spent 14 months telling Europe to spend more on defence and rely less on America. Europe listened. He just didn’t expect them to mean it quite so literally. Gandalv / @Microinteracti1
