José Ancer

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José Ancer

José Ancer

@ancerj

Cringemaxxing hobbyist intellectual & consigliere to elite startups. Dad to 3 w/ Mrs. of 15+ yrs. Unapologetic statue pfp. @UTAustin (Philo/Econ)+ @Harvard_Law.

🇺🇸 Beigetreten Kasım 2010
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José Ancer
José Ancer@ancerj·
Critical commentary about "tech bros" and "mediocre white men" has been circulating the news and mediasphere lately. This inspired me to write another (a third) essay in my years-long rumination on "diversity" in the startup and broader tech world. siliconhillslawyer.com/2024/05/29/tec…
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José Ancer
José Ancer@ancerj·
@avidseries A. They're usually building on land with minimal "interesting" trees. B. TFR of the suburban sprawl you despise is almost certainly far higher than the beautiful tree-lined expensive areas, even euro-style density, you love, which raises questions about who *really* is myopic.
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i/o@avidseries·
"A mature tree increases a home's value by 7 to 19 percent." How much money do builders save on costs by removing all the trees from a lot prior to construction? "Roughly $5,000 per lot." Vast swaths of residential America are bleak because of the selfishness, shortsightedness and greed of builders and developers. Personally, I can't live in a house in which there are no visual points of interest outside it that can be enjoyed through its windows. Views of trees, hills and mountains, maybe a skyline or compelling urban panorama — any of these will greatly increase the enjoyment of a home and improve the mental health of its occupants.
Aakash Gupta@aakashgupta

Let me explain exactly why every new subdivision in America looks like the top photo, because the math is wild. A mature tree increases a home's value by 7 to 19 percent. On a $400,000 house, that's $28,000 to $76,000. A single shade tree produces the cooling equivalent of ten room-size air conditioners running 20 hours a day. One tree on the west side of a house cuts energy bills by 12 percent within 15 years. The bottom photo is worth more, costs less to live in, and sells faster. This has been documented by the University of Washington, Clemson, Michigan State, and the USDA. The data is not in dispute. Removing those trees saves the builder roughly $5,000 per lot. Concrete trucks need twice the dripline radius of every standing tree. Utility trenches need flat ground. A bulldozer flattens 200 lots in an afternoon. Preserving trees adds weeks and thousands per home. So the developer pockets $5,000 in savings and the buyer eats $50,000 in lost value for the next two decades. The person making the decision and the person paying for it have never been in the same room. The Woodlands, Texas is the proof of what happens when they are. George Mitchell bought 28,000 acres of Houston timberland in 1974 and preserved 28% as permanent green space. He forced McDonald's to build behind the tree canopy. That McDonald's became one of the highest-volume locations in Texas. The first office building, designed to reflect the surrounding forest so you couldn't see it from the street, leased completely. The Woodlands median home price today: $615,000. Katy, a comparable Houston suburb that clear-cut: $375,000. Named #1 community to live in America two years running. Fifty years of data. The trees are worth more than removing them saves. Developers clear-cut anyway because they sell the house once and leave. You live in it for 30 years.

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José Ancer
José Ancer@ancerj·
nothing changes if no one takes risks that 99.9% say are stupid, reckless. but once a path is cleared in the jungle, you need far less unhinged folk to follow, build things in the void that last. and inevitably write nasty stories about the guys who cleared the jungle for them.
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José Ancer
José Ancer@ancerj·
when one observes evolution of new world colonization, hard to not conclude the conquistadors were bolder chaos agents but the brit/dutch were smarter builders of functional systems and win-win pluralistic culture. and modern american culture is a kind of synthesis of both.
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Ralph Schoellhammer
While everybody is hurting, not everybody is hurting equally. In the "new world order" it is no longer about distributing wealth but pain. Even if something hurts you, it might still be worth pursuing if it hurts your competitors more.
Ralph Schoellhammer tweet media
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José Ancer retweetet
José Ancer retweetet
José Ancer retweetet
Ralph Schoellhammer
Another informative graph for those who are interested in crude oil. I adapted the original one with input from @TheMichaelEvery, and I think now it reveals an interesting (and hopefully correct) picture. Mistakes are mine, and unintentional. @anasalhajji
Ralph Schoellhammer tweet media
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José Ancer
José Ancer@ancerj·
“Apres moi, le deluge.” -Donatien de Trompe, Marquis de Saint-Or, 2026
Just Another Pod Guy@TMTLongShort

What seems to be breaking a lot of people’s brains when trying to analyze the ongoing chess board is their unwillingness to think abstractly enough to appreciate why you need to inflict pain on your supposed allies to ultimately drive a decoupling. Going into this the Trump admin demonstrated it could tighten sanctions on Russian energy in a way that Biden never could. Ukraine was winning back territory. Now all of a sudden Russia is the biggest beneficiary of a prolonged SoH closure. The US seems amenable to blowing the barn door wide open and letting Putin monetize this event without sanctions at much higher energy prices. More money for Putin = more soldiers and drones and all of a sudden ukraines gains look more tenuous. Meanwhile European industry once again is getting squeezed on two sides. American energy prices are going to diverge and remain muted while China will continue to subsidize via its strategic reserves and Russian inflow. Europe meanwhile is going to be paying through the nose. Making worse it’s already fairly grim loss of industrial share. Now the “global south” specifically Pakistan and India are utterly fucked. If the U.S. decides to prolong the conflict… which it can absolutely do without material cost in the form of boots on the ground… the loss of even five million barrels per day is going to disproportionally screw the lowest bid in an unsanctioned market. All of this is obvious. But the question is why? And why now? And the only rational answer is decoupling. If you wanted to enforce the transshipment clause into the July review there is a benefit to having the world over a barrel. Not only do you dictate where tankers in ME are going you also can escalate at will and get Qatars gas fields blown up if you’re in the mood which in turn means the GCC are going to do whatever you tell them including direct flows where you want them. And ofc you can weaponize American LNG and also ramp VZ if possible (realistically no, but who knows). But there are also second and third order effects. What does this do to dollar liquidity? How much worse do sovereign balance sheets get if this continues? When do citizens in the global south start rioting? What does this do to consumption of discretionary goods and therefore imports from China? And most importantly how effectively can Trump leverage the chaos to get emergency measures in the US that help him into midterms? Deregulate energy? Stimulate consumer? Lower rates? Ramp weapons manufacturing? It’s complex. It’s chaotic. This whole playbook is borderline batshit. But there is a playbook and denying it at this point is ignorance or derangement. Fuck it we ball 🫡

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José Ancer
José Ancer@ancerj·
@DKThomp @AlexAlmeida2020 Japan/SK have committed a trillion dollars in investments, many already rolling. Australia begging for closer military cooperation. Gulf allies making clear they are aligning with US interests on Iran. India closer on Russia. This is geopolitics not a pre-school playground.
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José Ancer
José Ancer@ancerj·
@AndrewM36013517 A big difference is in America this subculture isn’t at all limited to rural life, or even marginalized as backward and provincial. It’s louder, prouder, and more armed.
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DyerMaker
DyerMaker@AndrewM36013517·
@ancerj Imagine pretending other countries don’t have fun rural-life hobbies and activities…
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José Ancer
José Ancer@ancerj·
TBPN > All-In. Not even close.
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Just Another Pod Guy
Just Another Pod Guy@TMTLongShort·
Unsanctioning Iranian oil doesn’t mean letting the IRGC collect dollars it means seal team six taking possession of Iranian tankers at sea. I thought that was obvious.
Rapid Response 47@RapidResponse47

.@SecScottBessent: In the coming days, we may unsanction the Iranian oil that's on the water. It's about 140 million barrels, so depending how you count it, that's 10 days to 2 weeks of supply, that the Iranians had been pushing out, that would have all gone to China. In essence, we'd be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days, as we continue this campaign. So, we have lots of levers.

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José Ancer
José Ancer@ancerj·
@rosejara1 and they have an instinctual need to flex, act, move things forward, even if it makes things a little messier and more chaotic. at times *because* it does.
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Rose
Rose@rosejara1·
@ancerj This culture is where a big % of 🇺🇸 military enlisted originate from. Ppl who are always ready to work, tinker, & make things work w/what's available.
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