José Ancer
60.7K posts
@ancerj
Cringemaxxing hobbyist intellectual & consigliere to elite startups. Dad to 3 w/ Mrs. of 15+ yrs. Unapologetic statue pfp. @UTAustin (Philo/Econ)+ @Harvard_Law.
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇹🇼 Fox's Bret Baier: “President Xi probably liked that you haven't approved the weapons for Taiwan?” Trump: “I would say ‘like’ is too strong of a word... It's a very good negotiating chip for us, frankly”
If you were not surprised when your nation's cognitive and other elites moved to London, Paris, Frankfurt/Munich, Sydney, Toronto, Milan, to maximize their impact, you should be just as unsurprised when they move to America. It's the same dynamic, scaled.
We stopped everything to write an answer (link below) to Paul Krugman's two posts of today (one informal, one with a simple model) arguing that Europe is broadly not falling behind the United States. The change measured by the Draghi report, he argues, is mostly due to growth in the technology industry, which has distorted GDP numbers without actually leading to higher standards of living. We should believe our eyes when we walk around France and walk around Mississippi. Krugman is wrong. The measures he uses understate European stagnation. This matters enormously. Divergence with the United States is the strongest evidence for reform in Europe. 1. The growth numbers Krugman compares the United States, France, and Germany at purchasing power parity in current prices. On that measure, France's and Germany's position relative to America has been roughly constant since 2000. But current price comparisons miss productivity gains in sectors where prices fall. If America produces twice as much software while the price of each unit halves, the value of American software output looks unchanged even though the volume has doubled. Most economists therefore use constant prices, which fix the base-year PPP level and apply each country's real output growth on top of it. American output growth has concentrated in tech, where prices have fallen tremendously as productivity rises. In terms of the volume of things produced, America has pulled away from Europe. 2. Is it all the tech industry? Krugman concedes this tech divergence but says it is not welfare-relevant. The American growth lead is an accounting artefact of measuring more iPhones at base-year prices, not a sign that Americans are actually richer, because Europeans buy the same iPhones at the same world prices. This is not the right way to think about the world today, as an earlier Paul Krugman would have argued. His model assumes tradable goods, interchangeable workers, marginal-cost pricing, and no profits. Each assumption fails. Most of what households buy is non-tradable: housing, healthcare, childcare, education. When American tech firms bid workers from haircutting to coding, American haircut wages rise. Germany has no growing tech sector to do the bidding, so German wages stay flat. Technology is not priced at marginal cost. Apple's margins are around 40 percent. Anthropic's inference margins are at 70 percent. The major platforms enjoy network effects, switching costs, and lock-in that hold prices well above what a competitive market would deliver. A large share of the productivity gains in technology stays as profit. A lot of the value of American technology dominance shows up in equity, not in wages. Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon together are worth $21 trillion, more than the entire combined stock market value of all European stock markets. Around 60 percent of US equity is held by American households. The median French or Spanish household holds almost no equity. The median employee at Meta, a company with almost 80,000 employees, earned $388,000 in 2025. This advantage is not going to go away. Krugman's own 1991 paper, cited in his Nobel prize, showed that comparative advantage in modern industries is produced by increasing returns to scale, specialized labor markets, supplier networks and the agglomeration of suppliers, workers, and ideas in particular places. Once an industry concentrates somewhere, the concentration is self-reinforcing. Europe is being pushed away from the next round of technology industries (AI!). 3. What about inequality? Another retort is that GDP per capita hides substantial inequality, and so even if America is rich on average, this is mostly due to the super wealthy. But despite the US's high pre-tax income inequality, it also achieves higher median incomes than Europe, in part because of such a high base, and in part because it actually redistributes more than many European countries. The cleanest comparison is median equivalised disposable household income: income after cash taxes and transfers, adjusted for household size and purchasing power. According to the OECD's 2021 numbers, the median American earns 30 percent more than the median Dutchman, about 31 percent more than the median German, and about 52 percent more than the median Frenchman. 4. What about hours worked? Krugman points out that while American GDP per person is higher, most of this is because Americans work more. For this divergence to be an hours worked story, Americans must work more relative to Europeans now than they did in 2000. The opposite has happened. Birinci, Karabarbounis, and See in a 2026 NBER paper show that about half of the American-European hours gap that existed in the 1990s has reversed by the end of the 2010s. Americans work fewer hours per person than they did in 2000, while most Europeans work more. 5. Is America not a bad place to live? Walk around Alabama and France: surely the former cannot be substantially richer than the latter? American cities often have poorer centres and richer suburbs or exurbs. European cities preserve richer and more attractive historic cores. A visit to a city as a tourist in America compared with a city in France will leave one having seen different spots on the income distribution. Americans in Europe go to the nicest and richest European cities. Rather than a walking around test, do a driving around test. Go to the periphery of any modern American city and see a level of new-built material wealth that is extremely uncommon in Europe, with thousands of enormous four- or five-bedroom homes. In the South, in places like Nashville and Austin, drive around the downtowns to see hundreds of luxury apartment buildings springing from the ground. This construction boom is replicated virtually nowhere in Europe today. The other question is generational. Housing often costs more in Europe than in the United States, despite the quality of the housing stock generally being much better. Europe has nice city cores but these are inaccessible to young Europeans. Consider the salaries available to entry-level workers. The starting pay for a London police officer is $57,000. In Washington, DC, $75,000. The entry-level Deloitte consultant job in Madrid pays around €28,000, roughly $33,000 per year. In Charlotte, the entry-level Deloitte job pays $63,000. There are many things to dislike about life in America. But relative to 25 years ago, the gap in material wealth has shifted dramatically in America's favor. siliconcontinent.com/p/european-sta…
Chinese hegemony once looked impossible. But weakened U.S. alliances may no longer prevent Beijing’s dominance. foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/12/chi…
As a consequence of female hormones, women experience a greater fluctuation in emotional behaviors than men. Women should be mindful to not allow this biological reality to overcome them and use this as an excuse to treat others poorly. But it is a normal part of the female biological and psychological system that is not the case for men. Men should recognize this and allow some grace for how women are affected by their hormonal system. As a consequence of male hormones, Men experience a greater sex drive than women, a greater frequency of sexual thoughts, (often unconscious and even unwanted) and the tendency to be drawn to visual representations of attractive women. This does not generally affect their desire for the woman they're in a romantic relationship with. It's more mechanistic. Often like a chore. This is not an excuse for men to obsess over attractive females or use pornography excessively or disrespect or neglect their partner sexually or romantically. But it is a normal part of the male biological and psychological system that is not the case for women. Women should recognize this and allow some grace for how men are affected by their hormonal system. Neither men nor women are immoral or undeserving of love for being affected by gendered hormones.
I win again! This newly-released CDC data shows us that the rise in autism in the United States between 2000 and 2016 was (drumroll)... ENTIRELY (98.25%, not significantly different from 100%) DRIVEN BY A SHIFT IN DIAGNOSTIC STANDARDS. The autism epidemic is incredibly fake.
University of Vermont projects 15% drop in freshman class
“Roughly 1 in 6 American adults, an estimated 44 million people, are now on antidepressants. In young adults, those numbers are even higher. Thirty percent of college students take psychiatric medication, up from 9% in 2007.” wsj.com/opinion/behind…
Wegovy and Zepbound prices dropped 70% in 3 years. Why? People pay out of pocket. Healthcare gets cheaper when consumers spend their own money. @ManhattanInst senior fellow @david_goldhill for @CityJournal city-journal.org/article/glp-1-…
