blockchainbrooklyn

@punk6529 🙏🏻❤️

1/ On Losing Faith Is it over? Was it all a fever dream? Have we run out of steam? Is it time to pivot to AI for real this time? 2/ Everything is dead? BTC: DAT premiums down, nobody cares ETH: Stablecoin Alts: Crushed NFTs: Right click saved Meme coins: As expected tbh Zcash: Pumping! which ofc means "cycle is over" 3/ This is the worst cryptotwitter timeline I have ever seen relative to the environment. Nobody is attacking us, USA is being reasonable and rational, no CEX has run away with our money, and yet, dead, dead, dead. No narrative, no spark, nothing. 4/ Why? I read the timeline and it tells me: a/"nobody owns BTC" (odd, I mean someone has to own BTC, there is a ton of BTC) and b/ "the gamblers have liquidated themselves (again)" - true, but it was always like this 5/ This TL feels different. This does not feel like "fuck I got liquidated", it feels like malaise, tiredness. Like boredom, to be honest. I know you think it is the price action but the price action is obviously downstream from psychology. 6/ I have a different view of what is going on. I think almost everyone forgot what matters, chased after things that did not matter and, we are in the process of discovering they don't matter. 7/ What matters? Only decentralization, only permissionlessness. Nothing else matters at all. Everything else about crypto is WORSE than a centralized database and always will be because that is how computers work. 8/ In my view, basically everyone "major" except vitalik has strayed from the light on this. Let's start with Team BTC which USED to be very interested in how to build a network that become nation-state resistant. This was the BTC of Antonopoulos, of Lopp 9/ We are 5 years into the BTC of Saylor and that BTC is 100% about driving price action. It is about driving flows to BTC, about getting fully integrated with the USA financial system. 10/ It sounds nice, it sounds better than the system beating us with a big stick, but the net effect is that more and more BTC ends up in Coinbase Custody in New York State Nothing wrong with that, but none of that BTC is nation-state resistant. It is 100% non-resistant to the US government specifically. 11/ The problem with this is that with permissionlessness off the table, the only thing left to drive purchases of BTC is FOMO. "there are only 21M, they are going to run out, you need to buy some before others do and it goes exponential" 12/ I mean, maybe that is true. I am not making price predictions, I still own BTC and always will I think. But it is cringe, and it is wrong. 13/ You can think about this by taking it to the extreme case and trying to understand which of the two scenarios adds value to the world. 14/ Scenario A: Blackrock owns all 21M BTC, everyone on planet earth owns shares in the Blackrock ETF and Brian Armstrong is in charge of making sure we don't lose Our Precious Scenario B: Everyone on earth has their own BTC wallet and BTC is distributed in several billion places around the world and it is literally impossible for any government to stop BTC 15/ In Scenario A, BTC is a complete and utter failure. It is just a pet rock. Yes it is "rare" but it is also "100% seize-able by the USA government" At which point, it might as well be an IOU from the USA government that it pinky-swears is rare 16/ "but it is not like this because other nation-states are accumulating and game theory blah blah blah" No my brothers and sisters. The exact scenario where your BTC get seized is a) centralized and b) hyperbitcoinization Maybe the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is happening and it is your ETF and $STRATEGY (TM) capital stack all along (thank you for your contribution to our national security) 17/ To be clear, nobody is seizing your BTC (let alone your ETH) now because it is not important enough yet. But, if it was, I dunno, I would not trust those centralized vehicles. CEO, Board, shareholders, SEC, US government, state government, custody firm, their regulators all have an angle of attack on a DAT. 18/ If USA seizes BTC, other countries won't save you: EU: "Thank god our dreams have come true, we can ban it also" UAE: "grumble grumble, but fine we will go along" China: "ban. unban. ban. unban. anyway so long as currency is not free-floating, BTC won't be free here" Russia: "someone falls out of a window" 19/ Of course, BTC in ETFs is by no means the worst of it. The "crypto's main use is a casino" crowd is the worst. This is not a zero-sum game, it is a negative sum game because it is rigged. 20/ "what about the JPGs huh?" -> I still love them. The best ones are the best tokens in the world by far, rare, suffused with meaning, with no external dependencies and great to hold on-chain. And beyond the art JPGs, I think that NFTs can do many more things, but this is on me to "show, not tell" 21/ I want to circle back to BTC because it is the easiest to reason about. When people explained to me time and time again that it was a ponzi, I had a simple explanation of why it is not. 21/ BTC lets you do some things better than the existing system. "be sovereign over your money" or "send money to anyone on the planet within minutes" or "maintain an insurance policy against the existing financial system" 22/ I could not tell you how much value this had, but I knew it was not zero. In fact, the value went up the more people used it, the bigger the network was, the more people you could transact with, the more resilient it was to government censorship. These are the economics of a network system, not of a ponzi. 23/ If you take this away, if you stop building a network but instead just, at the extreme, just sell everyone shares of the ETF, well there is no network, there is no incremental network value being generated by the next buyer. 24/ In this model, BTC becomes more ponzi-like. If a new participant does not make the network stronger by joining, they are not adding value, therefore there is a fixed pie and it is just value transfer to an existing holder. 25/ Again, take it to the extreme other direction -> assume we managed to move the whole economy to decentralized rails. I think that world would be better, it would make better decisions, it would take advantage of the wisdom of crowds, there would be more transparency, less rent-seeking and the aggregate value of the world goes up because it is more productive. Some % of the improved value of the world will get captured by the early participants to the network (which is normal and fair) but some % will be captured by everyone (as a late participant or consumer). 26/ But if we don't make the world better, if the world is exactly what it is, but also we play with a pet rock, this will not happen and, well, eventually playing with pet rocks gets very boring 27/ So what to do? The same things you always should do: a/ push yourself, and by extension, the world an inch, a foot, a mile down the pathway of decentralization. many ways to do this, it is a journey, start today. b/ remember, you, yes, you in the mirror have no business trading perps or day-trading stupid coins. you are bad at it and your future self will be mad at your current self. 28/ If you must do it, carve out a budget and test how great you are across the cycle with your budget (1%, 5%, 10%, 20% of your portfolio, not all of it) I am of course a dinosaur, but my total portfolio % of "putting money into stupid coins I have been FOMOed into it" is less than 1%. It has gone about as well as you might expect. 29/ Other than that, own some BTC, some ETH, some NFTs (good ones, that you like) in a self-custodial wallet, a small number of your favorite alts if you must. And keep your job. Earn money, don't try to be a pro crypto trader, this is an imaginary job that only cobie and like 5 other people are qualified for. I have always worked, every single day of my adult life. You should too. 30/ Crypto is a bad way to get rich quick, but a decent way to get rich slowly. In any case, you should have some stake in the decentralized world, in the digital world. 31/ I think in the end, "it" will be OK but "it" it not everything, it is not most things. As it always was, most coins will go to zero, most NFTs will go to zero. These are the rules of the game. 32/ Most of you are young. You have time, you have time into the ASI world, you have the greatest gift and wealth of all. You will be ok. 33/ Don't mope. It does not help anything. If you are bummed out, sad about your outcomes, there is only one sure thing that helps. Get back to working. 34/ Even if you are young, life is short, your life is the important thing, money is just a game, just a tool, just an information system. Don't anchor to your wealth, don't anchor to your ATH, it is not real, my ATH wealth has gone down 90% multiple times. Note it and just keep going. If you are healthy, in a decent country, in a half-decent economic situation, you are better off than almost anyone who has ever lived 35/ If you have an opinion (even a dumb one) about Monad or Grifters, you are in the 0.001% most forward thinking people in the world. Did you make a "mistake"? Who cares, everyone makes mistakes - keep going, keep trying, keep making mistakes, eventually you will find your way, you will get a win. This is how it goes. 36/ use a hardware wallet and even better a SAFE 37/ and to close again with the most important thing. decentralization is the only thing that matters. if you go in that direction, if we go in that direction, in the end, it will be ok. i have no doubt about this, i have never had any doubts about this, it matters so much more than you think it does. /the end

@Jen_Stark @SphereVegas @badmocap @theericepstein This is what the sphere was created for.

🌈🫠✨ Don’t wake me if I’m dreaming 🔮💫 @SphereVegas

@Jen_Stark @SphereVegas @badmocap @theericepstein 😍

🌈🔮 GM from Vegas @SphereVegas

@MetaBananas @coinbase Makes no sense; if mothers were never fucked, then none of us would even be here. Embrace motherfuckers @coinbase

hey @coinbase are u not listing $mfer because u are too chicken to say motherfucker?

@elonmusk Put everything on the blockchain and make all spending verifiable, transparent, and programmable.

@punk6529 Sharp analysis 👀

1/ On Human Brains; On GPU Brains A short math exercise. There are a couple of million high-end data center GPUs produced per year right now (H200s etc). If you throw in much weaker high-end gaming GPUs (RTX 4090s etc), a few more million are produced per year. Let's say 2M and 5M respectively 2/ If you want to run a high-end model today quickly, you need several of them. Specifically the limiting factor is their memory, not their computation. 3/ If you want to run a high-end near-AGI model at a fast pace, you need a few hundred GB of VRAM, so when o4-pro hits clear AGI this year, I dunno, the GPU industry will be effectively producing a few hundred thousands very smart, very productive humans per year (who can work all day long). 4/ The models will get better, get more efficient. The number of GPUs produced each year will increase too. We will come back to this. 5/ There are 6 billion adults and 1 billion university educated adults in the world right now (+/-) 6/ Next year there will be, let's say, 1 million AGI GPU adults. Now they will be very smart, they will have more intellectual output than even a bright human but there are still only 1 million of them. 7/ They can't run the whole world in 2026. They will be focused on, say, curing cancer. We will still use humans to run air traffic control and also to make espressos in 2026. 8/ So AGI humans will be 1/6000th of all humans in 2026, albeit unusually productive ones 7/ The next year, more GPUs, more ramped up GPU production, more efficient models. Maybe 1/1000th of all humans. 8/ Then 2028, maybe 1/100th or 1/200th of total intelligence will be machine based. Again, will be super impactful because these models are going to be super smart. We are not adding 6M random people. We are adding 6M 150IQ people who don't get tired and work all day and night. 9/ By 2030? We are growing exponentially - maybe 5% here. 10/ By this point everything will accelerate. The GPUs will be orders of magnitude more powerful, the models will be orders of magnitude more powerful, the ASI-making-ASI better loop will not only be happening but starting to have effects in the physical world - new chips, new production lines, new factories are now rolling out. If this is not the Singularity, it is getting quite close. 11/ From here it is a hard sprint and very hard to predict with any confidence, but sometime between 2035 and 2040 the large majority of global intelligence will be machine based. 12/ so tl;dr a) sometime in the next 12-24 months, an AGI will be smarter than any of us; b) sometime in the next 10 years, the ASIs will be not just be smarter on any particular task, but will output more intelligence than all of us combined. What a ride it is going to be, the greatest show on earth is about to begin.

@Zghire_ @notthreadguy bullish

@notthreadguy $FART is the new $SHIT Bp8aje3Dgfnbb58pc7KTPiN495JFfJkRCHi4aTXBpump

wait why does deepseek feel substantially better than o1? I guess i don't use LLMs enough to have nuanced reasoning but yea its better. like a lot

@botfiai worthless gesture when the "sender" can cancel the contract at anytime.

@convex @rasmic

Live event tomorrow! Explore the pairing of AI tooling and Convex with the great @rasmic . RSVP: lu.ma/grbfy90v

@DeeZe Gud tech ✨

$3000 to replace every lightbulb in our house with philips hue lights? damn that's pricey less than 1 ETH to replace every lightbulb in our house with philips huelights? free

neuralink

@BillyM2k @steve_hanke The Fed buying government bonds in particular.

No, Elon. Inflation is always and everywhere determined by changes in the money supply. x.com/elonmusk/statu…

The Federal government computers & software are in such bad shape that they often cannot verify that payments are not fraud, waste or abuse! That’s why the government can’t pass basic audits. They often LITERALLY don’t know where your tax dollars went. It’s insane. My preferred title in the new administration is Volunteer IT Consultant. Need to fix the IT infrastructure in order to make government work. This is a grind & hardly glorious, but we can’t make government efficient & fix the deficit if the computers don’t work.

@AbdelLahjouji @shevereshtus Jailed rappers like 2pac or Lil Wayne would generally be supported by the Israeli population because there are many HipHop fans in the Holy Land (although 65% seems kind of high). I really don’t see how it is relevant to this thread though.

@shevereshtus What about rapping jailed men ? What s the background behind 65% of israeli population that voted for that ? ( not being sarcastic here, I really want to get it, if you have an answer to that of course)

One of the most vile (and oft repeated) accusations against Jews and Judaism is that the Talmud (Ketubot 11b) permits relations with a girl as long as she is under the age of 3. A thread debunking this absolutely horrific libel.

@zachxbt @Henry_DeFi @AltOnChain We love the @zachxbt! 😆❤️🙏🏼

@Henry_DeFi @AltOnChain Then go do the work yourself if you find meme coins interesting? I do not care and am happy all these degens were rinsed for having a meme coin gambling addiction. Faster they lose all of their money gambling the better.

I have zero affiliation with @MartinShkreli but this needs to be said. Remember how quick and vocal @zachxbt was about $DJT and how he shit on Martin and 'insiders' for how it went down? Do you wonder why he's been radio silent on $RTR which was a wayyy bigger pump and dump % wise and way more brutal and quick? It makes you wonder, are the rumours that @zachxbt lets bad press slide on people who bank roll him(via donations) true? Food for thought. I believe in exposing the truth, no matter who is on the other end of it. I hope I saved some of you guys money today by publicly warning you many many hours before it dumped 90+%

@CozomoMedici @ripcache @rollbitcom rarible.com/token/0xc91544…

Buongiorno. #ArtTank is back, joined today by the young maestro @ripcache Each week we acquire $1.5k of art, in partnership w/ @rollbitcom - Share as many works as you like - Any chain, any platform - Drop your art + link below It’s time for Art Tank👇⚔️ 🖼️

@punk6529 Thanks for this important reminder. Inspired.

1/ On The Time Is Now to get your personal act together A mini-thread, views loosely held. If you are like me, you may do a good job in your professional life but there are quite a few things outstanding in your personal life.

@blknoiz06 Mog

$100 to whoever can guess what i replied to this text blast