Bob

18.2K posts

Bob

Bob

@bobbobbobing

Some random stuff

Beigetreten Haziran 2020
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Bob
Bob@bobbobbobing·
@Archer83Able Based out of where? If from Jordan then.... it's a long time in the cockpit.
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Status-6 (War & Military News)
Chairman of the JCS Gen. Dan Caine: "The A-10 Warthog is now in the fight across the southern flank and is hunting and killing fast attack watercraft in the Straits of Hormuz."
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World Affairs
World Affairs@World_Affairs11·
BREAKING: UAE says it will stop using its soil against Iran
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Bob@bobbobbobing·
@TheDuranReal Who knows more about launching surprise wars of aggression than Japan....amirite or amirite? I'll be here all week....
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The Duran
The Duran@TheDuranReal·
Trump compares Iran strike to Pearl Harbor. Japanese PM sitting there like she accidentally walked into a bad history class. Diplomacy has officially left the building. bbc.com/news/videos/cx…
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Bob@bobbobbobing·
@ElizHagedorn That's a lot of rare earth's....
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Elizabeth Hagedorn
Elizabeth Hagedorn@ElizHagedorn·
State notified Congress today that it's greenlit the following sales: • UAE − F-16 Munitions and Upgrades • UAE − Counter-Unmanned Aircraft System – LIDS • UAE­ − Long Range Radar for THAAD • UAE − Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles • Jordan − Aircraft Repair, Return, and Spares • Kuwait − Air and Missile Defense Radars
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Bob@bobbobbobing·
@simpatico771 Especially if the lube is made from oil.
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Bob@bobbobbobing·
@pati_marins64 Again don't overlook the effort Iran put into en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valfajr_(… & consider underwater land based launchers for these. 15KM range is enough & the recent USN sub sinking of the frigate shows how dangerous they are. Blucher in the Oslofjord comes to mind.
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Patricia Marins
Patricia Marins@pati_marins64·
My recent Interview 1- t.co/TzuDZn03Lt your analysis of the Strait of Hormuz, you argue that Iran’s geographic and military positioning makes the strait almost impenetrable in the current configuration. From a purely military standpoint, what are the specific capabilities, missiles, mines, drones or terrain advantages, that give Iran such leverage over this chokepoint? The first point to highlight is the local geography and how effectively Iran exploits it. If you look at a photo of the Strait of Hormuz from the Iranian side, you’ll see the strait is flanked by mountains. Coupled with this, bathymetric data shows an average depth of 50–70 meters. This makes large vessels and submarines highly vulnerable, while favoring Iranian midget submarines, fast attack crafts (FACs), mines, USVs, and UUVs. The Iranian arsenal is tailor-made for this type of warfare: ambushing enemies in the strait using midget subs, missile-armed fast boats, surface drones, undersea drones, and anti-ship missiles. Specifically regarding underwater drones, we are talking about modern assets up to 8 meters long, powered by lithium batteries and featuring high-stealth capabilities, such as the Azhdar. In the last five years alone, the Persians have commissioned between 250 and 300 fast boats equipped with missiles ranging from 25 to 300 km, such as the Ghadir missiles found on modern Zulfiqar-class boats. Furthermore, Iran appears to have already mined the strait, leaving only a narrow corridor close to its own territory, rendering any transiting vessel extremely vulnerable. Many of these missile and drone positions are housed in 'mini-bunkers' embedded within the mountain ranges flanking the strait. Imagine everything described above supported by aerial drones and anti-ship missiles. To top it off, in January 2026, the IRGCN revealed a network of undersea missile tunnels and coastal bases designed to deploy fast boats and naval drones from protected shelters. I do not believe any commander would force entry into that strait. 2 - t.co/spHUGxxMr9 suggest that Iran has been able to dictate the tempo of the conflict while continuing to export oil and influence global markets. Do you believe Tehran is deliberately managing escalation to weaponize uncertainty in energy markets without triggering a full closure of Hormuz? Yes, and they do so strategically, planning for a protracted war of attrition. With market volatility and surging oil prices, Iran is ramping up political pressure on Trump, who is also facing pushback from Gulf nations suffering billions in losses and a stifled energy industry. Companies like QatarEnergy have completely halted LNG production, Aramco is operating at half capacity, and Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC has significantly scaled back operations. This is not to mention Big Tech and the financial sector, which have also reduced their footprint in the Gulf following Iranian threats. The Persians are waging an asymmetric war of external and internal politico-economic pressure against their adversaries, to the point where their success is becoming evident. They are managing the generated chaos, biding their time to announce the closure of the other strategic chokepoint, Bab el-Mandeb, via the Houthis.
Patricia Marins tweet media
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Bob
Bob@bobbobbobing·
@DanielLDavis1 & yet once achieved... with nukes on board everyone settles back down. Remember the same stuff wrt NK? But now they have them... how many similar briefings have you seen wrt NK? Little Rocket Man is simply no longer a point of conversation.
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Daniel Davis Deep Dive
Daniel Davis Deep Dive@DanielLDavis1·
This is yet another reason why so few Americans have trust or faith or confidence in our government: there is virtually zero truth to this claim, by the Director of the CIA. It is conjecture to suggest Iran was working to get an ICBM platform *in order to attack America.* There are many nations in this world that have long range missiles that can reach the U.S., and yet NONE of them have ever used them. To argue Iran would have, at some unknown future date, developed them and validated their capacity, and then USED them against us is both illogical and without evidence. It is true, however, that Iran was expanding its conventional missile arsenal, precisely because of the attacks we and Israel have been subjecting against them for so many years. Every nation has the inherent right of self defense - even if its a regime u hate. There is no international law, no American law, no Constitutional authority that allows the U.S. gov to arbitrarily destroy another country merely bc we imagine they might, some day, possess weapons that could, if used, hit our country. It's called self-defense capability and its demonstrated purpose is deterrence against exactly the kind of attack we're making against them now. We have reinforced, to countries all over the globe, that they should build more, not fewer, missiles to deter a future aggression against them. Worse, we have given Iran every reason in the world to race to a nuclear bomb, starting first with the shortsighted withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 and this wholly unnecessary and unjustifiable war against Iran in 2026. It is entirely possible we will come, very much, to regret this whole series of bad policy decisions and folly of plunging into a war of choice...
Rapid Response 47@RapidResponse47

.@CIADirector: If left unimpeded, Iran would have the ability to range missiles to the continental U.S. It's one of the reasons why degrading Iran's missile production capabilities that is taking place right now in Operation Epic Fury is so important to our national security.

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Bob@bobbobbobing·
@Kingbingo_ "You can't militarily control the entire region"... well you can sort of (ignoring insurgencies etc) but it would require a very very large number of troops & a very very large expenditure of resources (to the point of bankruptcy) & ... for what exactly?
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Dan 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
Its not really important what you or I think. It matters enormously what Oman's Foreign Minister thinks, likley a shared regional view. The Gulf ultimately decides what currency to sell energy in. You can't militarily control the entire region.
Wtf! Am I actually right?@WTF_AIARight

@Kingbingo_ I love the way people always neglect to mention that, Iran did this all the time. There was no trust lost, or gained by Trumps actions on this and the US knew better than anyone what Iran was doing behind the scenes. This constant, point the finger at Israel, is retarded.

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Bob@bobbobbobing·
@ArmchairW If they weren't in Malaysia but had stayed in the Gulf, by now "The Persian Gulf is now an Iranian lake with zero USN warships present" would still be a true statement.
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Armchair Warlord
Armchair Warlord@ArmchairW·
Addendum: It's come to my attention that two of the three Bahrain-based Littoral Combat Ships that should be sweeping mines and shooting up IRGC combat boats were spotted in Malaysia three days ago. The Persian Gulf is now an Iranian lake with zero USN warships present.
Armchair Warlord tweet media
Armchair Warlord@ArmchairW

Something something destroyed Navy. Looks like we missed a bit. By the way, according to the Navy there are three Littoral Combat Ships still operating in the Persian Gulf. We haven't seen or heard of them since the war started. And dealing with this is, uh, exactly their job.

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Bob@bobbobbobing·
@kajakallas Complete inability to "read the room". The lack of energy can/will lead to a massive global depression forcing millions of Europeans out of a job & forcing debts to climb to unsustainable levels & yet... the above....
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Kaja Kallas
Kaja Kallas@kajakallas·
Iran's attacks on Qatar’s energy infrastructure are deepening the chaos. The war in the Middle East needs an exit, not an escalation. This is equally important for Ukraine, as Russia stands to gain from the Iran war. Now is the time to step up support for Ukraine, including by moving forward with the loan agreed by leaders already in December. My doorstep ahead of today’s #EUCO
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Bob@bobbobbobing·
@ejmalrai It is very ironic that the Marines have been re-equipped etc to ... be the Iranians... as their new role vs China was to be easy to hide missile forces threatening Chinese shipping routes... e.g. they have given up their tanks & other heavy equipment.
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Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
How are these Marines, deployed within a missile and drone engagement zone, expected to defend against saturation attacks? Concentrating US forces within Iran’s strike range creates predictable targets with no defensive depth. They will die for netanyahu. x.com/WSJ/status/203…
The Wall Street Journal@WSJ

The U.S. Marine Corps unit expected to arrive in the Middle East next week could help seize one or more of the strategic islands in the Strait of Hormuz to counter Iranian attacks on shipping on.wsj.com/4cX4rba

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Bob@bobbobbobing·
@WeTheBrandon They don't want a 2 front war (Iran & Yemen) & the possible closing of the Bab el Mandeb as well as Hormuz. That would just leave Suez & if need be a few well placed missiles onto large ships in the canal &...
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Bob@bobbobbobing·
@DanielLDavis1 Interesting counter point from the Omani FM .. worth a read: x.com/RnaudBertrand/…
Arnaud Bertrand@RnaudBertrand

This is probably the most important article of the month: an op-ed by Oman's Foreign Minister, who mediated the talks between the U.S. and Iran, in which he writes that the U.S. "has lost control of its foreign policy" to Israel. He repeats that a deal was possible as an outcome of the talks (something confirmed by the UK's National Security Advisor, who also attended: x.com/i/status/20341…) and that the military strike by the U.S. and Israel was "a shock." Interestingly, given he is one of Iran's neighbors and given that Oman has been struck multiple times by Iran since the war began (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran…), he writes that "Iran’s retaliation against what it claims are American targets on the territory of its neighbours was an inevitable result" of the U.S.-Israeli attack. He describes it as "probably the only rational option available to the Iranian leadership." He says the war "endangers" the region's entire "economic model in which global sport, tourism, aviation and technology were to play an important role." He adds that "if this had not been anticipated by the architects of this war, that was surely a grave miscalculation." But, he adds, the "greatest miscalculation" of all for the U.S. "was allowing itself to be drawn into this war in the first place." In his view this was the doing of "Israel’s leadership" who "persuaded America that Iran had been so weakened by sanctions, internal divisions and the American-Israeli bombings of its nuclear sites last June, that an unconditional surrender would swiftly follow the initial assault and the assassination of the supreme leader." Obviously, this proved completely wrong, and the U.S. is now in a quagmire. He says that, given this, "America’s friends have a responsibility to tell the truth," which is that "there are two parties to this war who have nothing to gain from it," namely "Iran and America." He says that all of the U.S. interests in the region (end to nuclear proliferation, secure energy supply chains, investment opportunities) are "best achieved with Iran at peace." As he writes, "this is an uncomfortable truth to tell, because it involves indicating the extent to which America has lost control of its own foreign policy. But it must be told." He then proposes a couple of paths to get back to the negotiating table, although he recognizes how difficult it would be for Iran "to return to dialogue with an administration that twice switched abruptly from talks to bombing and assassination." That's perhaps the most profound damage Trump did during this entire episode: the complete discrediting of diplomacy. If Iran was taught anything, it is: don't negotiate with the U.S., it's a trap that will literally kill you. The great irony of the man who sold himself as a dealmaker is that he taught the world one thing: don't make deals with my country. Link to the article: economist.com/by-invitation/…

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Bob
Bob@bobbobbobing·
@Steven_Swinford Great news for Chinese solar panel & EV makers.
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Steven Swinford
Steven Swinford@Steven_Swinford·
More market turmoil after Iran launched strikes at one of the world's biggest liquid natural gas plants in Qatar Significant rises in the cost of living are coming * Gas prices have surged by 35% * Oil prices have surged by 10% to $119 a barrel * EDF says that the price cap - which is frozen until July -is set to rise from the current level of £1,641 to more than £1,900 * Economists are warning that inflation will surge back to 4% * The FTSE 100 is down 1.9%
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Bob@bobbobbobing·
@carlbildt I would wonder if there are any Chinese ships packed with solar panels, windmills & batteries also incoming. The oil shipments are a band aid. A few million solar panels are a more permanent fix. & then they can shift in BYD etc EV'es.
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Bob@bobbobbobing·
@RLHeinrichs Seems a staggeringly expensive asset in money, materiel & lives. Then again for us it's just money & materiel so...
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Bob
Bob@bobbobbobing·
@WeTheBrandon & tick tock goes the clock where an unpopular ongoing war will be an issue in the mid-terms.... let alone a major global depression with large scale inflation....
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Brandon Weichert
Brandon Weichert@WeTheBrandon·
That's exactly right. But I am not convinced the American people are going to go for this.
rose@mrosetf

@WeTheBrandon They’re gonna kill 5000 troops to manufacture support for this quagmire

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Bob@bobbobbobing·
@thesiriusreport "Little Rocket Man" is clearly a winning strategy.
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The Sirius Report
The Sirius Report@thesiriusreport·
Oh and why did you think Russia gave Belarus tactical nuclear weapons? Once again, deterrence. Clearly many still have no idea how close the world came to a major conflict over North Korea which was narrowly avoided. Hence why Pyongyang immediately got nuclear weapons after that.
The Sirius Report@thesiriusreport

Ask yourself why the US barely mentions North Korea these days?Never threatens to go to war with it or threatens to invade it? Quite simply, it has nuclear weapons. Iran was offered many things by Russia and it turned them down. Granted that's their choice. If Iran had possessed nuclear weapons itself the US and Israel would never have started this war. Precisely why as said earlier, North Korea is left alone. What is being missed by many commenting on the post below is there is a world of difference if Russia offered Article 5 protection against DIRECT US and Israeli attacks, precisely because they are nuclear powers. That changes the rules of engagement totally. What changes the entire dynamic is when two nations in a DIRECT conflict BOTH have nuclear weapons or are protected by nuclear weapons. Whilst we are at pains to state that Iran has every right to defend itself and sadly unless we state the blindingly obvious, there are going to be people who infer we are suggesting otherwise. There is something that needs to be said. It would have been better for Iran if this war never happened. Because what is largely overlooked is not only how does this war end but how will there be lasting peace? Who seriously imagines an agreement signed by the US and Israel is going to end this conflict once and for all? By telling them to be good boys and leave Iran alone. Don't be ridiculous. Rather like Russia is now finding, ending the war in Ukraine and finding a lasting settlement which will endure is extremely difficult to achieve. People seem to think that war is the answer to achieve lasting peace. It is far better to never have a war starting in the first place. The only language the US understands is a nuclear deterrent. Just ask North Korea. To those who constantly cite Ukraine as though that contradicts what is stated above you are clearly not paying attention to what has actually gone on there for the last 4 years. Ask yourself why there is a back channel open with Washington constantly doing everything to avoid escalation with Moscow. If you think the INDIRECT role the US has played in Ukraine warrants a nuclear exchange between the US and Russia you don't understand real world geopolitics nor the actual role the US has played in the Ukraine war. Never has the US remotely posed an existential threat to Russia in the last 4 years. That is critical and poorly understood. China has demonstrated that you can end an hegemonic power without firing a single shot. Nations still don't grasp that true deterrence is the only answer. Wars solve nothing. In fact they do the exact opposite. Instead of focussing on why Iran has every right to defend itself, focus on what should have been done to prevent the US and Israel attacking Iran in the first place. Hence why Iran did indeed make a big mistake as stated below.

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Bob@bobbobbobing·
@H4nsSprungfeld @ArmchairW I assume you've seen the refuelling plan to get a single Vulcan bomber from Ascension to the Falklands? That took 11 tankers...
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Hans Sprungfeld 🆘団
Hans Sprungfeld 🆘団@H4nsSprungfeld·
@ArmchairW "And how does that tanker get to the theater?" "Why simple, another tanker!" "And how does that tanker get there?" "Obviously, another tanker!" "And how does that one --" "It's tankers all the way down."
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