Capsey

1.8K posts

Capsey

@capseyeth

Analysis @Cryptonary

Beigetreten Mart 2021

740 Folgt2.5K Follower

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Capsey@capseyeth·10 Oca

I must say, this is hard for me to write, but I have sold the majority of my Crypto. Currently 30% crypto and 70% reddies. Looking to unload the majority of that 30% into a $45k-47k Bitcoin (if we're lucky). I will then be Shorting. I will explain my change in sentiment below.

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Capsey@capseyeth·24m

Markets are slowly coming round that this isn't solely up to Trump to end this war, so it's possible that prices continue to move own, and over multi-weeks I think they do. But today, $BTC is at the rising wedge support and the $65k-$66k level - so I've booked some size here.

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Capsey@capseyeth·30m

Luckily, I couldn't help myself on this and did dive back in. Overall, has been a good trade, gonna take a bit off here.

Capsey@capseyeth

I'm in new $BTC Shorts here at just shy of $71k, with Stop at $74,250. Not sure I'm a believer of this Trump tweet and it's a ploy to buy time, plus chart doesn't look good - uptrend line broken. Target $65k.

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Capsey@capseyeth·1h

@cryptonary It looks like the war is going to rumble on with the Iranians rejecting the US proposal. Brent likely to move up to $115 in the coming weeks and Yields are likely to stay elevated. No bueno environment for risk assets.

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Cryptonary@cryptonary·2h

$17B in crypto options expire today. The SEC faces deadlines on 91 crypto ETF applications. And Trump just paused Iran energy strikes for 10 days. All three are happening in the next 12 hours. 1.Options expiry: max pain is $75K, BTC is at $68K. That $7K gap resolves one way or another today. 2.SEC deadlines on SOL, XRP, LTC, DOGE ETFs and 20 other tokens. The biggest single ruling day in crypto history. 3.The 10-day strike pause is the first real de-escalation signal since the war started. Watch oil — if it breaks below $90, the pressure chain that crushed everything this week starts to unwind. We’ll break down what each one means for crypto as it lands.

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Capsey@capseyeth·1d

“They better get serious soon” suggests to me that the Iranians aren’t playing ball with Trump. Think Trump and the US are increasingly looking like the losers. The Iranians just need to keep the Strait closed, and survive.

The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: President Trump says Iranian negotiators are "begging the US to make a deal" while they "publicly state that they are only looking at our proposal." "They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is no turning back, and it won't be pretty," Trump says.

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Capsey@capseyeth·1d

@astekz 😂

QME

Astekz@astekz·1d

my asshole fell out just watching it

American AF 🇺🇸@iAnonPatriot

You couldn’t pay me to eat this food. This is the type of stuff you’ll be seeing on the streets of NYC soon.

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Capsey@capseyeth·1d

@yourealazyfvck Would love to join this.

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David@yourealazyfvck·1d

If you’re in Dubai and you’re free on Wednesday nights we run a 5/6 a side football (soccer game) every week at 8pm Pretty competitive so come correct Hit me for details

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Capsey@capseyeth·1d

Think in the coming months, this is the trade for a nice multiple: betting on the Fed to cut once or twice in 2026. Current odds are: - 27% (1 cut) - 19% (2 cuts) Would give you a 4-5x depending on which hits. Reasoning: The Fed likely remains on hold whilst inflation is elevated due to higher oil prices, but they won't hike because of this - but they will remain on hold throughout Q2. But, economic growth will be impacted by higher inflation and the Fed remaining on hold for longer. Therefore, I expect the Fed will need to cut in Q4 26 to offset the negative impacts to the labour market and the economy that have been caused/exacerbated further by the conflict in the Middle East. Now, as mentioned, I don't expect a cut in Q2, or even probably Q3. And with much higher inflation prints likely to come in Q2, I think the Polymarket odds of cuts will come down (so you'll get even better prices/odds). Therefore, my plan is to DCA into buying 1 cut and 2 cuts for 2026 over the next 1-2 months, with those cuts expected to come in Q4 26. That's the trade.

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Capsey@capseyeth·1d

Feel quite strongly that risk assets are going to just chop for the coming months. Think it's +ev to remain overweight cash and not get chopped up between now and mid-summer. Expecting equity indexes to come down further in that time, but $BTC is for bidding between $55k-$65k.

zerohedge@zerohedge

*IRAN DOES NOT ACCEPT CEASEFIRE, SAYS US TALKS ILLOGICAL: FARS *IRAN SAYS US STEPPED UP EFFORTS TO SECURE CEASEFIRE: FARS

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Capsey@capseyeth·2d

Still think it looks pretty poor, but out of the Short for a small loss. Just gonna sit tight, expecting range-bound for more months to be honest.

Capsey@capseyeth

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Capsey@capseyeth·2d

Turning up and negotiating in a 5990 is heavy work.

The Telegraph@Telegraph

Iran has refused to negotiate with Donald Trump’s top envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, accusing them of “backstabbing”. Who is touted to replace them? Find out here ⬇️ telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/20…

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Capsey@capseyeth·2d

Market barely even bouncing. Doesn’t help when Yields are stabilising at their highs. Still think there’s a decent move lower for risk assets in the coming months.

First Squawk@FirstSquawk

ISRAELI CHANNEL 12: ONE-MONTH CEASEFIRE TO BE ANNOUNCED UNDER MECHANISM BEING DEVELOPED BY WITKOFF & KUSHNER

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Capsey@capseyeth·2d

Zoomed in, $BTC looks sort of diabolical here. - same rising wedge pattern as before (downside bias). - RSI uptrend line broken and rejected into retest. - $71k-$72k unable to be reclaimed. - negative Coinbase Premium. Could go on. And in a time where Yields have broken out, market liquidity is falling and financial conditions are tightening. Think $55k-$63k is for long-term bidding though.

Capsey@capseyeth

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Capsey@capseyeth·2d

@cryptonary Yep, financial conditions are now at their tightest since 2022. Great chart from CrossBorder on this.

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Cryptonary@cryptonary·2d

Gold is down 16% since the war started. BTC is up 8%. The macro says sell everything. Financial conditions haven't tightened this fast since 2022. A month ago, markets priced four rate cuts this year. Now there's a 78% chance of zero. And yet BTC won't break. One of two things is true: Either BTC is the last domino and it's about to catch down to the $55-65K zone. Or the bond market is about to force the Fed's hand. The 30-year yield hit 4.96% today. Last time it crossed 5%, in April 2025, Trump reversed policy within 48 hours. We're positioned for the first. Risk off. But the second satisfies faster than most people are prepared for.

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Capsey@capseyeth·3d

@astekz I'm of a similar view - think we need a full de escalation (a deal) for more upside to come for risk assets. Which I'm not sure is likely in the immediate term. Think this has more bumps along the road rather than out-right de escalation. I'm Short, in the same $BTC trade.

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Astekz@astekz·3d

I might be a bit early here but i'm betting after a squeeze today we run it right back down

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Capsey@capseyeth·3d

@TXMCtrades 100% completely agree. Iranians now know Trumps pain point and it doesn't take them a lot to inflict this pain.

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𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂@TXMCtrades·4d

The latest Trump ultimatum reeks of desperation. He has put himself in a box. Either keep your word and become a war criminal or bluff and kill any remaining credibility. Pure ego to put himself in this spot.

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Capsey@capseyeth·3d

@Rob_Jones19 I think this is just Trump buying time to get more marines and ships in the region. Don't think I'm a believer. And yep, Iranians now know his pain point (the markets), and I don't think they need a lot to inflict this i.e., keep Strait closed = higher oil, higher Yields.

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Rob@Rob_Jones19·3d

@capseyeth They were already denied by Iran 😂. It's mental.... It's almost like he just expected everyone to roll over.

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Capsey@capseyeth·3d

I think Trump wants to de escalate but to save face - my feeling is that he's done this on his own, and I'm not even sure how substantive these talks are and whether they even took place. I don't think I believe it, and now the Iranians know Trumps pain points i.e. the markets. And there's still a tonne of questions: - Are the Israelis onboard with this? - Do more strikes happen, just not on energy infrastructure? - Do the Iranians confirm these talks? - The Iranians now know where and how to pressure Trump. - Is this Trump just buying more time? I'm not a buyer of this rally in risk, and if anything, see it as a Shorting opportunity. I don't think I'm a believer here.

Open Source Intel@Osint613

Trump: I AM PLEASE TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WITCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP

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Capsey@capseyeth·3d