mark

As for 3x brrrs these levels: 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) Are my best guesses. Here's my thought process: 1. $SIVE: I genuinely do see them being $10B+ next year, they're the literal bleeding edge for CPO lasers alongside $LITE and $COHR. At a $1.3B MC... For likely mapping: Photonics: $AMD CPO, $MRVL Celestial CPO, $JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, ALChip, GUC, O-Net (ELS), $POET. For Space + Defense: Golden Dome via $YSS, $RTX / $ERIC / Bae Systems. Silicon Photonics: $AAPL (Apple Watches). This is just a stupid amount of customers and it's still increasing. They can always TAM expansion downstream through IP acquisitions or vertically integrate to speedrun $LITE's $60B MC one day once they get more funding. 2. MSSCORP (6830): CPO monopoly over inspection at ~$1.2B. 100% monopoly over CPO yields, $TSM, $AMAT, $NVDA, $LCRX, $INTC, and others are all likely customers. "The company’s goal is to seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market" This basically means 100%, they just don't want antitrust. If they defend their monopoly and CPO ramps, can easily see this worth ~$5B-$9B from $1.2B 3. Auros (322310): Samsung / SK Hynix supplier at ~$210M for Hybrid Bonding Metrology. Basically pure play on two products: -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5 cycles, that $KLA had a monoply over for IR metrology. ---> Getting qualified now likely in Samsung factories, H2 volume ramp est. Sk Hynix likely qualifying too when they upgrade to hybrid bonding. -> Thin-film thickness measurement. ---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (either Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year. They've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two products from years of qualification H2 this year. Seems extremely likely to 3x to $630M if they switch to volume ramp, feels like an undiscovered gem in the Korean market? Of course, not sure how they play out and this is all speculative but high confidence supply chain mapping. But off the top of my head these three that I own are the most likely ones at this level.

我还是觉得需要多关注一下 $iqe 这家公司 这家公司是专注于化合物半导体外延晶圆的供应商，处于全球领先地位。 1. 我们得了解他们的主要产品是什么： $iqe 所有的产品都基于他们的核心材料：GaAs（砷化镓）、InP（磷化铟）、GaSb（锑化镓）和 GaN（氮化镓），统称 III-V 族材料。 这些化合物半导体一般都比硅基材料更具有着高频，高功率性，另外还具备光发射和探测的属性。并且IQE 是全球唯一同时具备两种外延生长技术（MOCVD 和 MBE）的量产企业。 这样描述太笼统了，他们的这些特性就是能让电子跑得更快，而高功率则代表着他们和硅相比在相同尺寸下承受更高电压和电流。 而光的发射和探测意味着他们可以做俩个方向： 1. 光通信：InP 是数据中心高速光收发器（100G/400G/800G/1.6T）激光器的核心材料。 和 $sive有可能联系。 2. 传感与成像： 订单多来自于夜视、导弹导引头、空天遥感，这些都和军事有关。 这一点就说明了IQE 是唯一一家同时具备全系 III-V 材料组合，且在美国、欧洲/英国和亚洲三大区域均有制造和研发能力的纯外延晶圆厂商，反观竞争对手他们通常只覆盖一到两种材料。 关于股价，之前的下跌是因为宣布新融资 (占比11.5%)，造成的恐慌性抛售。但这一次是用于覆盖关键增长领域的大规模制造，所以我并不太担心对于以后的发展。 值得注意的是其客户MACOM Technology Solutions也参与了这次融资且占比很高，作为客户+股东这意味着黏着性更强。 他现在可以说是特别火热的板块，为什么呢？ 他的客户包括了光子，Inp，无线，GaN功率电子，传感等行业，当然都是得益于他们的特殊性。 光子方面： 1. MACOM这个已经很明确了 股东+客户 2. II-VI / Coherent 作为光收发器巨头，他们需要消耗InP大量外延片 3. Lumentum 合作关于激光器、VCSEL 4. Oclaro / II-VI 目前已经已合并 5. 博通 Broadcom 他们专注于硅光芯片，但部分光源仍需InP 6. Intel 他们的硅光模块其中激光器来源需InP 无线方面则更为广阔且确定性更高： 1. Qorvo是 IQE 历史上最大客户之一 2. Skyworks 他作为GaAs PA主要消费方 3. Broadcom（收购Avago后）— 射频滤波器/PA GaN功率电子方向： 1. 作为功率半导体龙头英飞凌 Infineon 的GaN产品线扩张中 2. NXP需要汽车/工业GaN 军事传感方面则是我们之前提到的像Airbus、Leonardo 的欧洲航天传感和Teledyne FLIR 的红外探测。 我是很看好这家公司的，因为在MACOM 的战略入股既解决了流动性问题，也验证了其在 InP/GaN 光子和射频领域的战略价值。短期虽然有股本稀释压力，但我相信已经消化差不多了。

Okay chat, it’s been awhile since the previous one. And a ton of names from $VPG to $ASPI cooked. So crowdsourcing a new list: What’s your highest conviction ticker that you think can 10x in a short timeframe, and why?

$AAOI is actually my favorite photonics exposure in the US market right now. I went long last year with low sizing at $28, back when I guessed they were qualifying with $AMZN and $MSFT. High conviction post earnings at ~$70, when they announced 1.6T and other volume orders with hyperscalers. Capacity projections at $90 for 2027 timelines were bullish. Now at $150, the story from 2025 is coming together with all the laser fab bottlenecks, GS optical TAM projections, Made in America efforts, $NVDA / $AMD discussion rumors. The only thing holding them back is ATM after ATM, and now another $600m ATM… I personally think it easily rerates once the mechanical selling pressure stops. And personally think it could be a 4-5x return in 12-24M. Also I don’t know who calculates those forward p/e’s on the screener websites but they’re all extremely off.

I'm sure many $SIVE holders are feeling the pain right now. The drop from 90SEK to 60SEK is painful. But what has changed about the thesis other than the price? We were glad when it moved from 40SEK to 60SEK, and now it's back at 60SEK and you're considering selling? Treat 90 as a gift rather than lost gains.