
Crawling Puncture
562 posts



June risks checklist: Fake Risk #1: SpaceX IPO drains liquidity Everyone is treating this like a black hole for capital. I don’t buy it. The float will likely be tiny relative to the valuation, and market liquidity remains abundant. I think any liquidity shock would be just intraday. Fake Risk #2: Waller + QT I highly doubt Waller tries to crash markets with a QT scare in his first meeting. Even if the left hand shrinks the balance sheet, the right hand is pushing financial deregulation and bank balance sheet expansion. Fake Risk #3: Middle East escalation My base case remains that this is a price negotiation, not a state negotiation. Escalation is very unlikely. The real risks: 1. Funds selling because they believe the fake risks. Positioning matters more than narratives. 2. June OPEX. Call/put IV skew is already heavily tilted toward calls. The closer to OPEX, the vanna/charm flow from OTM call options will force MM to sell. The uncertainties: 1. Will Waller be much less transparent than JPow? Markets hate uncertainty. 2. Will oil prices resurge as inventories near bottoms? How much of the oil spike leaks into May CPI/PCE? 3. Will BOJ hike 25bps in June? My plan: Start reducing leverage and exposure to high-beta names from the first week of June. I will not add any new positions except small monthly call lottery tickets, but will buy dips if SMH/SPX reaches the 21d EMA in the OPEX week, as I expect another bull run post-OPEX.


Got very bullish $ORCL after the $CRWV shit show and $AKAM print. AI native clouds are supply side businesses. Inference is demand side and lives where workloads already run. Akamai already sits in the path with global distribution and massive enterprise traffic. Turning on inference is a toggle. Same with Oracle. The market is overvaluing GPU access and undervaluing embedded infrastructure. Enterprises won’t be moved to CoreWeave in masses. It will be turned on where it already exists, adding another line item to a subscription.












@mat78704 非常牛逼,A大,还是那个问题,就是 15 日和 27 日中间的那个低点日期,大概是哪天哈







