Farzeen Sarthaj

When oil spikes in the middle of a commodity cycle, metals don’t move in a straight line. Costs surge. Margins get squeezed. Stocks react first. But if the cycle is real, demand absorbs the shock—and metals follow through. Noise in the short term, confirmation in the long term

@unusual_whales Because fertilizer plants require Natural gas. 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity knocked out

China has restricted fertiliser exports, per Reuters

@RebellioMarket Don’t expect a rally in it even in your dreams for next 2 years.

Is $BTC Going Up Or Down?

@calvinfroedge Precious metals will be sideways minimum 1-2 years from now. Don’t worry 😉

So the dollar is down, oil is down, and gold is down a lot, all at the same time

@kpak82 Exactly, 1-2 years time correction is necessary. Let the industrial metals catch up.

GOLD likely wont see new all time highs again for very long time. Will likely see -20 to 30% lower from current price by the end of the year.

@hajiyev_rashad Seems like you’re frustrated, time correction is superior than price correction. Expecting a 1-2 year sideways in precious metals.

Actually an intense 2-3 day sell-off in metals is better than endless slow grind lower. Fast cleansing and fast recovery. Let's get over something, which is inevitable...

@KeithMcCullough Don't forget the structural cause of it's rally, that is the heavy buying of the central banks. With current geopolitical tensions, they are keeping the dollar reserve rather than switching to gold.

Gold down wasn’t a surprise — it was the setup. 🥇📉 📈 Oil up 📈 Rates up 💵 Dollar up = short-term pressure on gold We sold SOME into the breakdown… Now buying it back into panic. 😈 Process > opinions.

@J_Wise_geology Its because you don’t have good view on it.

The problem is deciding which to buy- silver or gold?

@KeithMcCullough No worries, You will never see this price range ever again in lifetime

I think I'm the only one on Twitter who was Long Gold today - I will be tomorrow too, I guess

@MONETARY_MAYHEM $900 by 2032.

Anyway,who’s ready for triple digit silver?

@MakeGoldGreat Because it kick start commodity super cycle. It has happened in 1930, 1945, 1970, 1990 & 2000. And it’s happening right now.

OCTOBER 1974 OIL SHOCK: Gold barely reacts for 30 days… Then 4 months later: 🟢 Gold +70% And over the full 1973–74 period: 🟢 Silver +160% 🟢 Gold miners +193% 🔴 S&P 500 -48%

@sumitkbehal If market theme is financials then even a Gramin bank stock can be 10x. Cycle/theme matter more than stock.

If you had invested ₹1,00,000 in HDFC Bank 5 years ago, your investment would now be worth ₹1,07,000 The same amount invested in fixed deposits of HDFC Bank would be worth ₹1,37,000 without any volatility Lesson : You should listen to your parents

@riteshmjn Not reliable alone for continuous industrial operations, great for reducing energy cost if combined with grid power.

Here comes the first article on energy independence. Infact I believe that we will see massive over investment in energy security infrastructure.

So sequence is: Panic selling → cost pressure → supply shock → price rally By the time metals start rallying… Retailers thinks, “Why now?” Because market already absorbed the shock.

But here’s the twist most people miss: High oil = 👉 Supply gets constrained 👉 New capacity becomes expensive Add supply chain disruption: •Shipping issues •Sanctions •Export restrictions Now supply tightens globally.

Most people think #war = metals up. Reality is more complex. Here’s what actually happens 👇 First reaction in any war: 👉 Global risk-off Funds don’t think. They de-risk. They sell: •#Equities •#Metals •Risk assets

China’s liquidity. Key indicator: 👉 TSF (Total Social Financing) It tells: How much money China is pumping into the system. When TSF rises: 👉 Credit expands 👉 Infrastructure grows 👉 Metal demand rises When TSF falls: 👉 Construction slows 👉 Demand drops 👉 Metals correct

If you invest in #metals without tracking #China… You’re gambling. China consumes: 50%+ of global metals #Steel, #copper, #aluminium — everything. So what really matters? 👇The thread 🧵

#Gold falling slightly despite geopolitical tension isn’t a contradiction — it’s market mechanics: Fear already priced in, #dollar strength capping upside, profit booking kicking in, rates staying higher, and no fresh shock. Gold moves on changing conditions, not known events.

High #oil prices initially hurt #metal companies’ margins, which is why #stocks may fall. But over time, higher costs reduce supply growth — and that becomes bullish for prices. Oil rises → costs rise → supply tightens → prices rise Most investors only notice the last step.