Interpolations

The Israeli Strike Near Iran’s Reactor is an Ominous Signal The US and Israel find themselves cornered with dwindling options and growing desperation. This is evident in their attacks on Iran’s electrical grid and their calculated attempt to shift the Overton Window toward the nuclear threshold. The statement by Trump advisor David Sacks, suggesting Israel could escalate the conflict with nuclear options, coincides with a missile strike landing just 350 meters from the Bushehr reactor. This isn’t just a warning; it’s a veiled threat. It’s a trial balloon designed to gauge the global reaction to such a catastrophic possibility. A direct hit on an Iranian reactor would inevitably force Iran to retaliate against Dimona, leading us into a spiral of nuclear escalation, but what if Dimona be empty? As global opinion is being tested, this "window" is being meticulously shifted and calibrated. Currently, US-Israeli options, beyond aerial bombardment, include sector-specific ground operations. But what if these operations end in disaster? Even a NATO intervention might change nothing. In Libya, European NATO forces depleted their ammunition in about 10 days during a low-intensity conflict. Today, Rheinmetall claims European stockpiles are bone-dry. While I usually take Rheinmetall’s claims with a grain of salt, this time it actually makes sense. We are looking at a scenario of severe ammunition shortages against a heavily entrenched and well-armed Iran. Any landing operation would be a bloodbath. I believe that, faced with mounting internal and external failures, the US and Israel will gradually push the Overton Window to a choice between total defeat or the use of tactical nuclear weapons, in the event of a catastrophic failure of ground operations. Tactical nuclear weapons are strictly forbidden for use, yet their radiation dissipates within weeks in the current environment. Even so, it would constitute a grave war crime. I do not believe the U.S. would embark on such a path, but I cannot say the same for Israel. Ending the war with Iran still possessing enriched uranium would be equivalent to admitting that Netanyahu, instead of increasing his people's security, did the exact opposite. The internal pressure would be immense. If nothing goes as planned and the death toll rises, I feel this window can shift much faster.

The US and its allies are making a concerted effort to de-escalate the oil/gas war, having witnessed that Iran was willing -- and able -- to climb the escalation ladder very quickly. To be seen whether Tehran plays ball. Whatever the case, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

About to start Blood Meridian for the first time. Give me all your best advice.

Our response to Israel's attack on our infrastructure employed FRACTION of our power. The ONLY reason for restraint was respect for requested de-escalation. ZERO restraint if our infrastructures are struck again. Any end to this war must address damage to our civilian sites.

If Israel fired on the Fars field without the knowledge of the U.S., then it means that our junior partner in this war unilaterally made a decision to expand the range of targets from strictly military installations (the preference of the Trump admin) to critical infrastructure. Trump's goal is to neutralize Iran's military threat while Netanyahu wants to lay the groundwork for regime change. This means that Netanyahu is pursuing more extreme war aims that actually undermine Trump's ability to make a peace and leave on our terms. Alternatively, if the U.S. signed off on the strike, it means Washington made the decision to escalate, but was unable to defend their ally Qatar from the certain retaliatory strike from Iran. We have interceptors and missile defense systems in the region that are supposed to protect those countries as part of their agreement to host U.S. bases. If we signed off on a move that led to an attack on Qatar that we couldn't defend, then it means a U.S. ally is facing consequences for military decisions of Washington that it wasn't privy to. Hardly makes us look reliable.

Statement from President Trump on South Pars Gas Field:

Bibliography of Ali Larijani, who was killed today in a US-Israeli airstrike. Imagine Trump producing works such as this 😂

Never in my wildest dreams did I imagine we could go to war with Iran and things would turn out quite this badly. We owe the people involved in planning Iraq 2003 an enormous apology right now. They had a real war plan. They had allies, logistics, and a legal basis for action.