
LivinLucky
55 posts




$BTC Bitcoin - Update To be more specific, the 2W resistance is $79,466.5 - $81,138 between the 2nd of March and the 15th of March and $74,434 between the 16th and 29th of March. And the weekly resistance is $78,934.5 until the 15th of March. In the same time, the window for the next weekly high is until the 29th of March. So if a pump to around 79K happens from here it should be faded by the 29th of March, even though the most obvious period for that would be by the 15th of March. In the same time, based on Kyushu Ashi on the 2M, April should close above $70,202. If the macro bottom is in the price should probably establish a wide range for a few months before a weekly reversal. If the macro bottom is not in, the price will probably go much lower than most people expect, i.e. 20-30s and should not bottom at 45K which is the most crowded target. But that's just a sentiment-based guess and there is no need to predict anything.





Altseason - Update The invalidation from the quoted tweet was hit - the 1st of February closed above the high of 4th of August candle, i.e. CS closed above the candles. So the argument of this idea for an altseason between the 16th and 22nd of February, namely - CS tracing, is gone. However, there is a new argument present for a potential mini-altseason which irronically may fit on these same dates or the current and following couple of weeks. When the kumo in the future is thick bearish and the price is trying to make a breakout a lot of the times it first makes a bull trap/dump. So this time I wouldn't be surprised to see the ratio retracing, potentially even to the red area between Kijun Sen and the kumo. The probability for that is lower than the previous idea but I still think that there is around 60% chance for at least some kind of BTC.D dump. This would be obivously a mini-altseason if it happens. And what follows next longer term most likely will be very bad for alts. As higher timeframes are slowly but surely alignling for bullish continuation (of BTC.D). And once a confirmed weekly breakout happens this should destroy alts. If this initial dump of BTC.D happens, the reversal point where $BTC takes back dominance over alts should be between the 16th of February and 22nd of March based on the time cycles.



Strategy can withstand a drawdown in $BTC price to $8K and still have sufficient assets to fully cover our debt.


















Not a good look short term if $TSLA closes today with lower low on the weekly BX. Really need a bounce into close ✅









