LivinLucky

55 posts

LivinLucky

LivinLucky

@luck_flows

Katılım Ocak 2015
508 Takip Edilen57 Takipçiler
LivinLucky
LivinLucky@luck_flows·
I was following this along and seeing it play out as you said. For me personally, I greatly appreciate any further insight because you possess nuanced knowledge I'm still far away from grasping entirely. You're allowing me to constrain expectations by tying it to time. Thank you for the post and I hope your health is improving.
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Dr Cat
Dr Cat@DoctorCatX·
$BTC Bitcoin There was no need for an update because everything was covered weeks ago in the quoted tweet but as some people keep asking maybe I need to break it down: 1⃣ I explained why the best window of opportunity to attack 79K was until the 15th of March and that since the 16th of March $74,434 starts to act as a powerful resistance making it more difficult. As a result, bulls missed the best opportunity to attack 79K and because they attacked after the 15th, so far the price only managed to wick above $74,434 and is rejecting. 79K is now less likely to come than by the 15th of March - and this statement was made on the 1st of March. 2⃣ That's why I said in the comments, even though that should have been crystal clear from the post, that I expect a bearish reversal latest around 79K: x.com/DoctorCatX/sta… and in the post I made it clear that it should be time-wise no later than the 29th of March. I also said at the lows that if a weekly pump is to happen it should happen when bearish war news come out: x.com/DoctorCatX/sta… The pump came right after the news, and so far the price rejected no higher than 79K and no later than the 29th of March. As everything is going as expected (so far) I see no reason to update. If I update what should I say.... "I told you so"? Since I got some health issues in November I'm working on my spirit in a sense that I've decided to mature and try not clout chase on Twitter so I don't want to update in this case. I don't understand why people are asking for an update when everything is happening as projected. If I'm wrong or my opinion changes there is a reason for update and I might update if I feel so, otherwise there is nothing to update. Now IF the price doesn't completely break down from here directly to new yearly lows, and there is another exit pump before that (which is still hard to tell), I think that if the price manages to go to at or above the weekly Tenkan Sen this would be a short-lived opportunity for bears. This week that's $76,781, next week it is $75,184. Of course, patient and conservative bears may wait for 79K+ but they risk to miss the opportunity. There is just one thing to add since the last post: Based on the time cycles on the 3M timeframe the macro bottom is not in and should come after March.
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Dr Cat@DoctorCatX

$BTC Bitcoin - Update To be more specific, the 2W resistance is $79,466.5 - $81,138 between the 2nd of March and the 15th of March and $74,434 between the 16th and 29th of March. And the weekly resistance is $78,934.5 until the 15th of March. In the same time, the window for the next weekly high is until the 29th of March. So if a pump to around 79K happens from here it should be faded by the 29th of March, even though the most obvious period for that would be by the 15th of March. In the same time, based on Kyushu Ashi on the 2M, April should close above $70,202. If the macro bottom is in the price should probably establish a wide range for a few months before a weekly reversal. If the macro bottom is not in, the price will probably go much lower than most people expect, i.e. 20-30s and should not bottom at 45K which is the most crowded target. But that's just a sentiment-based guess and there is no need to predict anything.

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LivinLucky
LivinLucky@luck_flows·
@EWTracker I think the wave counts make sense but the 2W candles are heavy resistance with the lagging span underneath and we need more time to go by before the ceiling is raised. 2W resistance gets raised to 93k on April 13th. Currently 81k-74.4k for the next 2 biweekly candles
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Tracker
Tracker@EWTracker·
$BTCUSD I know this won't be readable by most - but I'm putting it out there for my TA-in-arms to consider:
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LivinLucky
LivinLucky@luck_flows·
I think it's key that BTC doesn't necessarily need a harsh dump to new lows but that wick will fill let's say we drop to 63k from here, ETH could dip to 1400 or whatever instead of its Feb5 low and everything else will go even lower than those lows Like you said certain 2W candles are resistance until then and failing to break above that during this time period is not impulsive enough. That means this whole thing is corrective and anything can happen by April 12th
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Dr Cat
Dr Cat@DoctorCatX·
@luck_flows I'm not sure how it will manifest by the 12th of April because I'm not sure whether $BTCUSD will dump significantly by then The wick is not that far by the way actually
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Dr Cat
Dr Cat@DoctorCatX·
Altseason - Update The mini altseason should have ended and now the second part of the idea most likely has started to play out with the $BTC.D bullish expansion, which was projected to start latest by the 9th of March as explained here a few weeks ago: x.com/DoctorCatX/sta… Based on the future Kijun Sen angle, the 10/10 wick level is likely to be taken by the 12th of April.
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Dr Cat@DoctorCatX

Altseason - Update The invalidation from the quoted tweet was hit - the 1st of February closed above the high of 4th of August candle, i.e. CS closed above the candles. So the argument of this idea for an altseason between the 16th and 22nd of February, namely - CS tracing, is gone. However, there is a new argument present for a potential mini-altseason which irronically may fit on these same dates or the current and following couple of weeks. When the kumo in the future is thick bearish and the price is trying to make a breakout a lot of the times it first makes a bull trap/dump. So this time I wouldn't be surprised to see the ratio retracing, potentially even to the red area between Kijun Sen and the kumo. The probability for that is lower than the previous idea but I still think that there is around 60% chance for at least some kind of BTC.D dump. This would be obivously a mini-altseason if it happens. And what follows next longer term most likely will be very bad for alts. As higher timeframes are slowly but surely alignling for bullish continuation (of BTC.D). And once a confirmed weekly breakout happens this should destroy alts. If this initial dump of BTC.D happens, the reversal point where $BTC takes back dominance over alts should be between the 16th of February and 22nd of March based on the time cycles.

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Sykodelic 🔪
Sykodelic 🔪@Sykodelic_·
That is exactly what you want to see from a bottom. Perfect, really. We had aggressive shorts load in as price dropped to $62.5k, and they got hunted which started our move. As that happened OI got slammed as they all got liquidated - decent bear trap. Then from there we’ve had a very strong rally from spot buying, with a relatively flat OI, meaning leverage is minimal… But still negative funding so most are trying to short this move. The kinda setup you want to see for a low to form, and for it to continue higher. We will get more signals about what is next at the range highs.
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LivinLucky retweetledi
Strategy
Strategy@Strategy·
Strategy can withstand a drawdown in $BTC price to $8K and still have sufficient assets to fully cover our debt.
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LivinLucky
LivinLucky@luck_flows·
@ChartingGuy CEOs that have stuck around for the whole duration, while bringing company value up massively over a long period of time, deserve to liquidate shares. That's the largest incentive besides innate desire to leave a legacy via innovation
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Caffè Satoshi
Caffè Satoshi@CaffeSatoshi·
Why is everything on my Tradingview watchlist RED except for Trump Coin?! 😂
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LivinLucky
LivinLucky@luck_flows·
@BestTrader01 It's easily calculable for the earnings so I would imagine it's a nonfactor since there's no guessing. The only marginal differences would be from the software side
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ALGO DADDY
ALGO DADDY@BestTrader01·
$MSTR - Earnings Tonight! Good Luck! Stock Down 300+% If we Can Pop $100 on the Earnings that would be GREAT!
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LivinLucky
LivinLucky@luck_flows·
The price difference is from MSTR being a buyer of last resort, absorbing the drawdown through MSTR shares instead. This is also because MSTR is the only way BTC/IBIT longs can hedge their positions. The opposite will be true when the market is shorting on the way up and they need to long MSTR to hedge.
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Heisenberg
Heisenberg@Mr_Derivatives·
$MSTR Wait, let me get this straight... $BTC currently is trading at $80k and likely Strategy's price is going to be trading at the SAME price Monday as when Bitcoin was $57k and $47k?! Make it make sense...
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LivinLucky
LivinLucky@luck_flows·
@BestTrader01 MSTR took the bear market in place of BTC when institutions want to hedge
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ALGO DADDY
ALGO DADDY@BestTrader01·
$BTC $MSTR - Bitcoin is only Down 30% from ATH! MSTR is Down More than 200% from ATH $549! How is that work?!
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Nick shirley
Nick shirley@nickshirleyy·
🚨 Here is the full 42 minutes of my crew and I exposing Minnesota fraud, this might be my most important work yet. We uncovered over $110,000,000 in ONE day. Like it and share it around like wildfire! Its time to hold these corrupt politicians and fraudsters accountable We ALL work way too hard and pay too much in taxes for this to be happening, the fraud must be stopped.
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LivinLucky
LivinLucky@luck_flows·
Hi Olga. I'd like to work my way towards your books but I'm starting with Tunnel Thru The Air first. I was going to read a free copy on Gutenberg until you had mentioned that physical copies have significance with numbers and hints on the cover. The first edition is not currently in my budget. Are there any copies from B&N/Amazon that suffice? Thank you.
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Olga Morales
Olga Morales@AstroGann33·
Conversations with Gann Olga Morales What if W.D. Gann never truly left? For decades, traders, astrologers, and seekers of the arcane have attempted to decode the hidden layers of Gann’s mysterious masterpiece, The Tunnel Thru the Air. Beneath its surface lies a veiled map of time — one rooted in astrology, biblical prophecy, and sacred geometry. In Conversations with Gann, astrologer Olga Morales embarks on a soul pilgrimage through sacred sites and ancient mysteries, guided by the spirit of Gann himself. Through symbolic dialogues, she uncovers how the ancients — and those who came after, like the Templars — preserved celestial wisdom in cathedrals, stone circles, stained glass, and sacred architecture. The veils begin to lift as star, scripture, and stone align — revealing hidden truths encoded across time by initiates, mystics, and prophets. Gann becomes more than a teacher of market law; he emerges as a guardian of a deeper tradition. If you’ve ever sensed that Gann’s work was more than market forecasting... If you’ve read The Tunnel Thru the Air and heard a hidden chord resonating behind the words... If you believe the ancients left clues waiting to be found... This book opens the door. The spirit of Gann lives on — and the dialogue continues. amazon.com/dp/B0FHF83B93 #gann #astrology
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LivinLucky
LivinLucky@luck_flows·
@DoctorCatX Thank you for your time with posts! I hope you're recovering from illness.
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Dr Cat
Dr Cat@DoctorCatX·
$BTC Bitcoin Currently the most likely scenario is to range a bit here till 2026 to kill entirely the daily downtrend and eventually to pump to 98K-103K marking a major top at these levels between the 12th and 18th of January. The bottom should be either in or mostly swept at 80K. This pump if happens should represent a nice opportunity to derisk and protect capital as we are already in the crypto autumn scenario and even though the bull run and the super cycle are still in play, bullish trend on HTF and ATH are extremely unlikely for the next 6-12 months now when the uptrend is not active anymore on the weekly and biweekly timeframes. On the daily you can see how the downtrend is wearing off as CS has entred the candles. The best timing clarity comes from the biweekly timeframe where you can see how CS keeps respecting the candles with perfect accuracy on each specific date. That's the reason why for the last two months ~92K was such a strong resistance. Based on this timing model (past candles at CS acting as resistance): - $91,351 is resistance till the 21st of December - $89,164 is resistance between the 22nd of December and the 4th of January. - the same resistance is elevated to $96,168 between the 5th and 18th of January which makes it the most likely period to attack higher prices like the obvious resistance of 98K (and probably a wick to the higher one at 103K). As this is a 2W timeframes wicks in the resistance are not uncommon and significant in terms of price but it's very hard to close and hold above the resistance. That's why for the next 2.5 weeks it will be very hard to start a rally above 89K. Which gives time for the daily chart to range around and "kill" the thick bearish kumo by SSB going down and SSA going up. That's why if the bottom indeed is in the most likely scenario for the rest of the year is chop or very slight pushes to the upside which end up being rejected. Zooming in further in this period which we take from the 2W timeframe, using the weekly cycles, you can see 15 (Kihon Suchi 17-2) weeks for a potential cycle high from ATH between the 12th and 18th of January which makes this week the perfect candidate for this major top scenario. It's important to understand that while 103K and 98K are both key levels (98.4K and 103.4K to be precise), 98K is the SSB resistance at CS on the 3D which is very rarely touched during a downtrend and if it is normally it's very short-lived. So 103K should be significantly harder to come than 98K and if it comes it should be a pretty quick wick. If the daily local bottom at 85K doesn't hold the next HTF levels are the weekly SSB at around 80K and biweekly SSA currently at around 77K and that is certainly possible. But it seems like too many people are bearish and expecting 7 handle which makes this scenario less likely along with the daily chart losing bearish momentum.
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LivinLucky
LivinLucky@luck_flows·
@vol888 2H BX closing HL soon might be enough to keep weekly HL
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