Shingle.Oak

@policytensor A bit off-topic, but a must-read: yahoo.com/news/articles/…

One problem with realism as a doctrine of foreign policy is that it ignores justice, but justice is crucial for sustaining any political order that can sustain a grand-strategy. The realist take on this is that you compute in the power-political frame and sell it with a spin that makes it look just. But there are limits to this sophistry and hypocrisy. One way these issues enter the equation here is the West’s unjust demand that Iran cannot have the bomb while Israel can. I don’t believe that any political coalition in Iran can now survive fudging this issue. The bomb is now essential for both deterrence and for justice. The West can’t be trusted anyway. If there is to be a permanent balance of naked power — and how can there not be? Israel like Serbia in 1914 has forced us all into playing Monopoly now — then nukes are essential, the Hormuz weapon is essential, missiles that can reach London and eventually DC are essential, an alliance with the anti-systemic great powers is essential, hardening is essential, a firm anti-Western policy is essential. I just do not see how this argument will not now win in Iran. The West has burned all its credibility for fair dealing. The only man in the West with both a brain and balls now is Macron. And even he is merely a realist customer to be dealt with at arms length. ‘The savage injustice of the Europeans’, as Adam Smith put it, their unjust treatment of Iran and their hypocrisies around the genocidal hyper aggressive Apartheid regime, is now an active catalyst of the destruction of the Western-centric world order.

@TraceJoyWar @northerly_ @policytensor Are you that stupid? If we mine the strait the oil trade of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait will also go to zero and we'd be exactly the same place we are now. Your "solution" to this problem would be to do exactly what Iran is doing right now.🙄

@northerly_ @policytensor All we have to do is mine the strait and then Iran’s oil trade goes to 0 and we win.

All this while Iran’s great power ally, Time, builds the tsunamis that will crash the world economy, this president, his party, and many, many political coalitions around the world. He’s cooked. Picked the wrong kid to bully.

@jasinskm @policytensor If the US nuked Tehran the entirety of the Muslim would would declare war against the US, and even a lot of the non-Muslim world would do so. The Gulf nations now helping the US would be aghast at the action and cease being US allies. The US would become a pariah state.

@policytensor All the more reason to expect a US nuclear escalation.

Facing the total loss of the US position in the gulf, the president is under considerable pressure to escalate to a ground incursion. It is going to be an even bigger disaster, generating even more pressure for further escalation which will result in a full-blown catastrophe. It’s just really, really hard to see how the US can avoid defeat here. No course of action is promising in the least. Recent updates suggest that the interdiction war has failed. Hormuz cannot be retaken without it. Further decapitation is not going to work. The limited-objective ground incursion options, if undertaken, would almost certainly result in disaster. The US simply does not have the armed force strength — even with a draft — of occupying Iran. The United States has been truly defeated by the newly-minted great power.

@investophermind @WarMonitors "all the way into Kuwait?" Good god you are stupid, Kuwait is right next to Iran.

@WarMonitors Iranian drone reaching all the way into Kuwait to tag a CH-47 Chinook is next-level desperation. That heavy-lifter beast shrugs off hits better than most fighters and the base is still standing tall. Tehran’s long-range flex keeps falling flat.

⚡️ Images of a CH-47 helicopter in Kuwait that was targeted yesterday by an Iranian drone

@FirstSquawk $200 oil here we come

Iran unlikely to open Strait of Hormuz in near term, say U.S. intelligence sources – Reuters

@GasBuddyGuy Great idea! Maybe interview 4-5 in different parts of the country if you can.

Who would like me to sit down with a gas station owner and do a live Q&A? Would this be of interest for people to be able to ask questions to a gas station owner as we have a live convo on X?

@gemina1 @SpencerHakimian You are an authoritarian fascist.

@SpencerHakimian After this war is over you should be triad for treason

How is Iran doing all this without a Air Force or Navy?

@AMist78 @sentdefender He explicitly said "Declaration of War." I'm pretty sure he knows what he's talking about.

@sentdefender I hope he means authorization for the use of force. We’re not declaring war and yes there’s a big difference. Senators should know this

Statement today from Republican Sen. John Curtis of Utah, as several Republican lawmakers begin to break from President Trump over the ongoing and escalating Iran War: “I stand by the President’s actions taken in defense of our national security interests in the Middle East. But we must be clear-eyed about history and the Constitution. While I support maintaining our readiness and replenishing stockpiles, I cannot support funding for further military operations without a formal Declaration of War from Congress.”

@NickRicci5 @sentdefender The strikes in Libya were child's play compared to what's going on now. And Biden never bombed Ukraine or Russia. Good god you are an idiot.

@sentdefender But it was okay when Obama didn’t declare war in Libya or Biden in Ukraine

@Amiran_Zizovi @sentdefender What do you expect them to do, not fight back?

@sentdefender The ayatollahs murder their own people then shoot at US planes.

Video footage published by Iranian state-run media which claims to show the targeting of a U.S. Air Force A-10C Thunderbolt ll earlier today over Southern Iran by a surface-to-air missile, with the A-10 later crashing in the Persian Gulf off the coast of Kuwait, while the pilot successfully ejected and was later rescued by U.S. Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR).

@eaub77203 @sentdefender This is utterly delusional. These strikes are not going to result in a regime change. They will do nothing but harden the existing regime, and even get Iranians who previously did not like the regime to rally behind them.

Why the US strikes on Iran are debatably a net-positive in the long run: (Important preface that the loss of human life on both sides is deeply unfortunate) Degrading Irans proxy networks (Hezbollah, Houthi's, Iraqi milita) by cutting off the financier/supplier, allowing the Middle East to be a more stable environment. Deepens US-Gulf Arab relations (UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain) due to increase reliance on US military infrastructure to defend against Iranian threats. (I will concede that this is a circular argument bc they wouldn't need defense if Iran was not struck; however, UAE has always been wary of Iran) Demonstrates US military capabilities over Russian and Chinese supplied air-defense/technology, sending a direct deterrence signal to Beijing and Moscow. Accumulates irreplaceable real-world combat experience for US forces that no training nor simulation can replicate. (In addition to highlighting weaknesses to drones which will provides valuable data for how US systems can improve) IF Iran strikes result in regime change, or at least control over Strait of Hormuz or even Kharg island (or similar island Chain), US influence over Iranian and Venusian oil reasserts the Petrodollar at a time when BEICS nations are actively working to displace it. (And would reinforce US dollars role in global reserve currency ch through energy supply control). This would also give the US massive leverage when negotiating with China. Places US contractors at the top of every allied and undecided nations procurement list, significantly boosting the US defense economy. In regards to Taiwan, china's window has likely closed and due to establishing US military credibility, Chinese decision makers are likely postponing or even ditching the idea entirely. (At least taking Taiwan by force) In sum, if partially successful, these strikes in addition to the Venezuela operation, repositions American power, influence, and economic primacy for the next several decades.

Iranian operatives have been digging out underground missile bunkers and silos struck by American and Israeli bombs, returning them to operation hours after an attack, with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) still retaining a significant amount of its cruise and ballistic missiles as well as mobile launchers, according to recent U.S. intelligence reports shared with The New York Times.

@yakno220 @sentdefender Speaking of Kegsbreath ... x.com/aintscarylarry…

@sentdefender Trump/Kegsbreath said Iran was totally annihilated

@riptidereturns @Rory_Johnston It means Trump is delusional with dementia.

@Rory_Johnston but what does it mean?

The president is Bueller?-posting

@PStConservative @jmbprime No, it is the worthless ones who are staying. The worthwhile ones are the ones being fired.

@jmbprime We have generals out the yazoo, dumbass. We’re getting rid of the worthless ones.

President Trump needs to fire Pete Hegseth today before he loses more Generals. This is out of control.

@sentdefender $300 oil here we come.

Heavy strikes currently underway against the Iranian capital of Tehran and nearby Karaj in Northern Iran.

@IdrisTheGr8t @sentdefender I think you're an idiot?

@sentdefender Beautiful picture but something feels off… why does Earth always look perfectly round and edited in every NASA photo? Just asking honestly 😅 What do you guys think?

New photo of Earth taken from Artemis II.

@RubenThurairaj @Chellaney @GeneralClark And it's going to fail spectacularly.

U.S. Army @GeneralClark in 2007: Pentagon official plan to "take out" seven countries. 1 Iraq 2 Syria 3 Lebanon 4 Libya 5 Somalia 6 Sudan 7 Iran He described this as a "policy coup... to destabilize the Middle East and bring it under American control". Trump is just completing this plan.

My column: For decades, the US waged wars abroad without exposing itself to the risk of serious retaliation. This was made possible by selecting targets that lacked the retaliatory capacity to impose significant costs beyond their national borders. The Iran war has broken that intervention model, ending America's illusion of relatively cost-free wars. The US can still strike with overwhelming force and inflict immense devastation. What it can no longer do is control the consequences or contain the fallout. project-syndicate.org/commentary/ira…

@BartDePalma @yarotrof @WSJ The EU and Asian ultimately don't care who runs Iran, so if Iran controls the strait they won't care as long as the oil goes through.

@yarotrof @WSJ Let me get this straight. The USAF and IDF levels Iran, but the ruined nation “wins” if Asia and the EU are too cowardly to protect and reinsure their own ships and oil imports? Whatever.

Whoever ends up controlling the Strait of Hormuz once the guns fall silent will be the winner of the war. So far, it looks like Iran is on a path to strategic victory. My analysis (from the shores of the strait) in @WSJ wsj.com/world/middle-e…

@WarMonitors Donald Trump is mentally ill.

⚡Trump on Truth Social: With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE. IT WOULD BE A “GUSHER” FOR THE WORLD???

@sentdefender They're probably wasting their time trying to find them. If they didn't get killed they've probably already been captured by the Iranians and will be used as hostages.

For the first time since the start of Operation Epic Fury, Iran has successfully shot down a U.S. fighter jet, with a search and rescue effort underway to locate two crew in Southern Iran, a source familiar with the incident tells Axios.