Raymond Russell

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Raymond Russell

Raymond Russell

@raymondopolis

working on my world model

🇺🇸/ 🇮🇳 Beigetreten Ocak 2011
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Raymond Russell
Raymond Russell@raymondopolis·
The spice must flow
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Raymond Russell
Raymond Russell@raymondopolis·
@curtis_yarvin Praedestinationem vocamus aeternum Dei decretum, quo apud se constitutum habuit, quid de unoquoque homine fieri vellet. Non enim pari conditione creantur omnes; sed aliis vita aeterna, aliis damnatio aeterna praeordinatur.
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Curtis Yarvin
Curtis Yarvin@curtis_yarvin·
Elon paying $47B for Twitter was like an Yanomamo Indian in the Amazon trading a sack of gold dust for an AK-47. He has a sense of its awesome power. He doesn’t know how to load it, how to fire it, or what end the bullet comes out. But he has the coolest war club in the tribe
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BLΛC@blac_ai

I sent an AI agent swarm to read the X algo source code. What they found shocks and confuses me. First, I want to be clear about why I'm posting this. Four years on this platform. 60,000+ followers. I've shown up every day since I started. And over the last three months, I've watched my reach drop 40%+, off a cliff, and I haven't changed ANYTHING; I am extremely consistent, disciplined, and focused on what I do and how I do it. What bothers me in addition to my own numbers is that Artists I used to see constantly, I never see anymore. People that I look forward to seeing what they're creating... one day they disappear from my feed. I assume they left. Nope, still here. Still posting. Multiple times a day. Just completely invisible to me now. And presumably me to them. This is happening to a lot of us. I've tried to figure out why and how to fix it. Post more. Post less. Different times. Everything has hurt my account. I'm frustrated, tired, and tbh, straight up losing interest. So... I had my AI agent, Mai, spin up a research swarm last night; a multitude of specialized sub-agents pointed at every line of X's open-source algorithm. Every file. Every filter. Every module they've made public. Literally. I wanted to know exactly how to see this from the perspective of a creative here, from an artist, and not from a content consumer which is what literally every other post about the algo is focused on. What follows is what they found. ///// ⭕️ TLDR; 5 things we all should be aware of: 1. Our follower count does nothing for our reach anymore. 2. The algorithm decides how many people see our posts based on a PREDICTION, before anyone has seen it. 3. Posting too much hurts us. Posting too little also hurts us. (Really) 4. Every time we repost another artist's work, the algorithm buries it. 5. Our posts are gone from the system after 48 hours. Nothing from 3 days ago is being shown to anyone. You start from zero every 48 hours. ///// ⏬ Going deeper on those 5... 1. Your Follower Count is just a Display Number Buried in the codebase: "author_followers_count" is pulled through a service called "Gizmoduck" and passed to the tweet entity service for display only. Not fed into any scorer. Anywhere in the system. 100,000 followers. 1000 followers. Same starting point in "Phoenix", the new system. Years building an audience on this platform? That audience, as a signal to the algorithm, is worth nothing now apparently. What travels with your posts is PREDICTED engagement, a score based on your content and historical signals, regardless of how many people chose to follow you. _ 2. "The Prediction Trap" This is the one that actually broke my brain. Before your post reaches anyone, "Phoenix" scores it across 19 "prediction heads"; 19 different things it's trying to predict about how people will behave. Let me repeat. ❗️THE ALGO IS PREDICTING HOW MUCH ENGAGEMENT YOU WILL GET, AND ASSIGNS REACH BASED ON IT.❗️ WHICH IS A SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY! Some of the 19 metrics: favorite_score — will someone like this reply_score — will someone reply dwell_score — will someone pause on it (binary) dwell_time — how long will they pause (continuous, two separate signals) photo_expand_score — will someone expand the image not_interested / report — negative signals The prediction determines reach... It actually decides if the post will get reach, by predicting... reach? how does this make any sense. It's not determined by merit of the post. It's determined by wether or not the algo thinks it will get reach, thus giving it reach. Phoenix PREDICTS low engagement. Shows the post to fewer people. Fewer people means fewer chances for engagement. Prediction validates itself. Post gets suppressed. + Phoenix PREDICTS high engagement. Bigger distribution. More chances. Prediction validates itself. Post gets pushed further. The prediction drives distribution. Content quality is secondary. And the prediction is built on your account's recent historical signals. If your reach has been declining, Phoenix is PREDICTING it will keep declining, AND actively making that happen by restricting your distribution. ie; A great piece posted on an account with declining engagement gets a small test group, underperforms in that group, gets confirmed as low-value. Even if it's the best thing they've ever made. The algorithm creates the outcome it predicted. And for anyone who's been in a decline, getting out requires overcoming a system that's actively betting against you. _ 3. "The Volume Trap" "AuthorDiversityScorer" applies exponential decay every time you appear in the same follower's feed session. Each additional post from you in a single session scores lower than the last. - Post at 9am, noon, 7pm. - A follower opens X at noon. - They see your midday post. - Your 9am post, still alive, is now decayed because you already appeared in their session. - Your 7pm post decays further. ❗️The more you post, the less each post reaches. So you post less... Impressions drop anyway, because low activity reads as a dormant account. The "per-author" caps governing this are redacted from the public code. Post too much = decay. Post too little = dormancy. The band where things work is narrow, undisclosed, and different for every account. This is absolutely absurd. And impossible for people to navigate. _ 4. The New Repost Penalty April 12, 2026. X announced a crackdown on aggregators. Reposts of other people's work: up to 90% impression deduction. On that specific repost. To be clear: NOT on your account. On each individual original post. Lots of mis-info out about this. Every time you share another artist's work because you believed in it, because community means showing up for each other... The algorithm buried it. 90% visibility cut. Gone. BUT Self-reposting your own work is different. X uses a "Bloom filter" that resets at the end of each session. "RetweetDeduplicationFilter" only drops self-reposts for followers who already saw the original in that same session. A follower opening the app at midnight hasn't seen your morning post in their current session. It reaches them fresh. The rule: sharing someone else's work = buried. Sharing your own = viable. _ 5. 48 Hours and... It's GONE. "Thunder" is X's in-memory post store. It auto-trims every 2 minutes. Retention window: 48 hours. After 48 hours your post is gone from the candidate pool. The algorithm can't serve it to anyone. The idea that consistent posting lets your older content keep circulating is wrong at the architecture level. You're starting from zero every two days. Thunder also maintains per-author caps on how many of your posts can be in the candidate pool at once. Those values are redacted. ///// 🫠 How our habits are hurting us: For years the advice was: show up every day, post on a schedule, build the habit. The accounts that did that built audiences. That consistency was proof of commitment. The "AuthorDiversityScorer" punishes it. The daily schedule that built your following now means your posts are competing with each other instead of adding value. The disciplined consistency the old platform rewarded is now what triggers exponential decay under the new one. Let that sink in❗️ The platform changed the rules. The habits we built under the old rules are working against us under the new ones. And no one said anything about it. /// 📤 A Note about/to Nikita & the X Team: Nikita Bier and the algo team at X are building for consumers. The changes make sense from that angle: algorithmic feeds, crackdowns on low-quality reposts, pushing formats that generate comments and replies. If your goal is to show the people scrolling a better experience, this logic tracks. That might even be the right goal. I could argue that with a certain perspective. However... there's a side of the equation they're seemingly not accounting for: the creators who supply the content that makes the platform worth scrolling in the first place. For artists specifically, this has been a demolition job. The art was always supposed to be the value. That's what we spent years building. That's what the audiences came for. The current algorithm doesn't reward that natively anymore. It rewards high comment probability. The result is people like me spinning up AI agent swarms to read source code just to understand why our reach is gone. Creators running diagnostics on a platform they used to just create on... is ridiculous. I don't think this is the intent. But it's the outcome regardless. You can optimize the consumption experience all you want. If the people making things stop showing up because the game is too rigged, there's nothing left to consume. The creator side of the algorithm needs a voice in these decisions. Right now it doesn't have one. //// I sent agents to read the code because I was tired of not knowing the rules. Tired of watching reach disappear. Tired of looking for accounts I used to see every day and finding out they're still there, still creating, just invisible. Understanding all this doesn't fix anything, ironically. But at least now I know what I'm working with. They built the algo well. Just not for us. It's built for the masses, engagement farming, rage baiting, fear baiting, and overall 2026 end-of-days pvp slop and brain rotted doom scrollers. I don't know what else to tell you, or how to operate with any of this, and trust me, I get how insane and confusing a lot of this is. It numbing. Tiring.. and just.. Idk. Regardless, I hope this helps in whatever way it can. -BLAC _ Attached: 1 - screenshot of my death spiral analytics 2 - Summary report on agent swarm findings 3 - the prediction trap, visualized 4 - snippets from the public X algo repo with notes

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Raymond Russell
Raymond Russell@raymondopolis·
@johnloeber That’s for the best, they probably wouldn’t serve you if you poached their talent anyway
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John Loeber 🎢
John Loeber 🎢@johnloeber·
Recent miscellaneous thoughts 1. I once was at a casual restaurant where I asked the waiter for ketchup. He said "yeah we have ketchup" and then I watched him walk out, run across the street into a 7/11, and return with a handful of ketchup packets. Incredible 2. I go to my office around 7:30AM now. This would've been unthinkable if you knew me five years ago. What's made the difference? That's when the Waymos are cheap. I respond to financial incentives 3. Python minutiae: "x is not None" is a little weird if you think about what "not None" means, and why would that value have the same identity as some random variable x? But it works because "x is not None" is parsed as fully equivalent to "not (x is None)", because "is not" does not separately use the "is" or "not" keywords, but rather, "is not" constitutes its own comparison operator with its own grammar rule. 4. Carly Rae Jepsen's 2012 smash hit "Call Me Maybe" has always been suspicious to me. Already in 2012, people were no longer calling. The texting generation was in full swing. 5. Frozen peaches are a really good late-night snack. They satisfy in the same way as ice cream, but they're light on calories and healthy, and you naturally eat them slowly since they're frozen. 6. Whatever happened to AI SDR startups? Haven't heard much here lately. 7. Every now and again you run into some community that does not seem interested in status. They are always interested in status, just not in a form that is legible to you. Inane comments that read like ordinary conversation are jousting matches of obscure status games and you don't even realize. They ask you whether you prefer canvas or linen and you say both are fine, and the secret doors you did not even know existed become closed to you forever. 8. The UX on almost all dimmer light switches is awful. The dimming function is right next to the switch toggle, so it's super easy to accidentally adjust the dimming when you toggle the switch. I have no idea how this ended up as the industry standard. 9. Regarding the White House Correspondents Dinner shooter, many people are noting that he went to Caltech. Top schools are not infallible; even Harvard or Stanford produces washouts who don't make it afterwards. There are many reasons for this. These people often become resentful, thinking that the world owes them something because they went to a good school and somehow it never comes. 10. A few years ago, Apple got rid of the Australian Siri and I'm still bummed about it. That was the most pleasant voice. 11. In SF, South Park has a shockingly high number of vacant storefronts. For a neighborhood surrounded by VC offices and being known as a meeting spot, the lack of cafes & restaurants is astounding. 13. Financial technology is interesting because the plumbing always goes one level deeper. No matter how close to the metal you get, it's always built on something else. 14. Being on airplane wifi really underscores which websites are well-engineered -- usable even under minimal bandwidth -- and which are not. 15. Search on Twitter/X is increasingly breaking. I often search my own tweets to refer to something I know I wrote previously -- a few months ago, I noticed that using the "top" search results stopped working, but that the API for "latest" would still be reliable. Now neither work. 16. If I die in a plane crash, I hope it'd be at takeoff. Imagine if my last hours were spent crammed into an airplane seat, sweaty and tired 17. Garbage is "indiferencia" in Portuguese. This is so funny to me. I imagine throwing away something, thinking "I am indifferent to this object" 18. Good literature holds up a mirror to the reader. Revisiting a book a few years later always gives you a different experience. Books like To Kill a Mockingbird are totally different experiences as a teenager vs. as an adult. A lot of political fiction is effective in the same way, as people go through liberal-to-conservative arcs in the courses of their lives. Good media changes in your perspective at every stage of life, and empathy for the other side as you remember exactly what it was like to agree with the other side years ago. 19. I think the world is pretty fair in that you fundamentally get what you want 20. Sometimes I hear founders and execs make excuses for the state of their business: "our net dollar retention has always been 120% but we're down to 90% now because of this one-off issue with our biggest customer --" yeah OK your NDR is 90% not 120%. everyone, literally everyone, has this stuff happen to them. This is baked into how people evaluate these metrics. No excuses or special cases. 21. Nostalgia is big business. People pay through the nose for Disney experiences, rare Pokemon cards, you name it. Even seeing washed-up artists from thirty years ago. (It's a little sad, of course, to see people spend endlessly to try to relive memories or feelings that can never be felt again.) This suggests that people's preferences really get set fairly early in childhood, maybe around the teens, and then that's it for life. What that means is kind of interesting. The big businesses of the future will invest heavily to own the warm fuzzy feelings of childhood that will then create nostalgia-driven consumers for decades.
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will o’brien
will o’brien@Willob·
Ulysses has raised $46M led by a16z American Dynamism. We are building The Ocean Company. The ocean is 71% of the planet. But it is less explored than Mars, and full of secrets, waiting to be told. It is the backbone of global defense. Home to the critical infrastructure that powers our world. And the key to the health of our planet. This frontier needs technology to protect and steward it. We are building it. And we need more builders Join us and explore the Great Blue Frontier: theoceancompany.com/careers
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Shannon Watts
Shannon Watts@shannonrwatts·
“Newsom worries that Tom Steyer, the billionaire investor, would be too all over the place on positions and management to effectively run the state. He worries that Katie Porter, the former congresswoman, would drive business out. He has had a contentious personal relationship with San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan. He ran against former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa eight years ago, and the strain between them is still there. He appointed former Biden Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra to be state attorney general after Harris became a US senator in 2016, and has reservations about how Becerra handled that job.” cnn.com/2026/04/15/pol…
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Raymond Russell
Raymond Russell@raymondopolis·
Minoru Yamasaki Fan Club
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Robotbeat🗽 ➐
Robotbeat🗽 ➐@Robotbeat·
“The universe is probably littered with the one-planet graves of cultures which made the sensible economic decision that there's no good reason to go into space--each discovered, studied, and remembered by the ones who made the irrational decision.”
NASA@NASA

"Welcome to my old neighborhood." Our @NASAArtemis II astronauts woke up on the sixth day of their mission to a special message recorded in 2025 by astronaut Jim Lovell, the pilot of Apollo 8.

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Robert Bork III
Robert Bork III@BobbyBorkIII·
🚨BREAKING: A federal judge has ordered the Trump administration to turn the Artemis II mission around.
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Raymond Russell
Raymond Russell@raymondopolis·
So instead of moving quickly on Starlink in 2024–25, Delta will now offer its customers another half-decade of what will now be a very substandard product experience
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Raymond Russell
Raymond Russell@raymondopolis·
For c̶o̶m̶p̶e̶t̶i̶t̶i̶v̶e̶ [Ed Bastian ego] reasons, Delta can’t buy Starlink—they’d be admitting that United did something cool before Delta Airline Starlink is great (and importantly, it actually exists right now), and there was no exclusivity preventing Delta from buying
Evan@StockMKTNewz

Delta Airlines $DAL will use Amazon's $AMZN satellites to deliver in-flight Wi-Fi service Delta agreed to install the Amazon Leo internet service on 500 aircraft starting in 2028 - Bloomberg

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justin
justin@justincalles·
highlight of weekend: leafing through @raymondopolis & @SamSuechting's king james bible from 1669
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Dhruv Bindra
Dhruv Bindra@bindra_dhruv·
This is why I’ve been hiding from the internet for 2 years…
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Raymond Russell
Raymond Russell@raymondopolis·
@Willob When I'm watching a nice sunset in my kayak in a kelp bed, I often wish there were some 110dB Bad Bunny playing
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will o’brien
will o’brien@Willob·
Reflect Orbital but you can beam reggaeton or mariachi music to any public space on Earth 24/7
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Ari Schulman
Ari Schulman@AriSchulman·
This should be the biggest story in the country right now. Barksdale is the HQ for our B52 nuclear bombers, it's where Bush sheltered on 9/11, and the drones are reported as "far more sophisticated than anything seen in Ukraine ... and well beyond Iranian capabilities."
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Awais Ahmed
Awais Ahmed@awaisahmedna·
Rahul Seth (@ultasawaal) has been a contrarian before being contrarian stopped being contrarian. And one of the earlier backers and proponents of deep tech in the country before backing deep tech became cool. I remember those days of yore. One example of that conviction was his super early bet with @PranosFusion, a very cool Indian startup by @Shauryapranos and @roshgor building a fusion energy company out of India. Which has now raised their seed round to take their tech to the next level. As the world propels towards humongous energy needs to build a silicon god, clean abundant energy will be a non negotiable and companies like Pranos will play a very crucial role in that civilisational odyssey. For companies building similar civilisational companies in India at the earliest stages, you have to have Industrial47 and Rahul as a partner in your journey. Don’t hesitate to reach out.
rahul seth@ultasawaal

2 years ago, I met @Shauryapranos and @roshgor over idlis at Airlines. They were planning to build a fusion energy company in India. There was no ecosystem for it, no playbook, no capital. Most people I mentioned it to thought I'd lost the plot. No investment committee would have approved a pre-seed cheque into an Indian nuclear fusion startup in 2024. It would've been laughed out of the room. What I saw, however, was two people who understood fusion physics and engineering at a level that made me feel like a student again. Two athletes who had decided that this was the Marathon of their life. @industrial47 wrote the first cheque. Today, they are a team of 8 PhDs with an integrated fusion development stack, a Tokomak reactor about to hit first plasma and have just raised a $6.8Mn round. Congratulations Roshan, Shaurya and team @PranosFusion! The hard part is ahead, but I wouldn't bet against you two. Welcome to the grand run - @piventures, @ankurcapital, @lkeshre, @MarsShotVC, @shashank_kr, @harshilmathur, @shashankmehta05 and @npbhukhanwala.

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