Sederomil
462 posts


LONG $AVGO $MRVL Key Points >CPO co-packaged optics technology is actively advancing >NVIDIA Spectrum-6 Ethernet version experiences optical loss over 3.5dB higher than previous generation >Active alignment requires sub-micron precision with over one hundred operations per module >Quantum-X modular design has lower yield pressure while Spectrum-X direct co-packaging causes yield to deteriorate exponentially >NPO near-packaged optics serves as short-term transitional solution Conclusions >CPO is inevitable in the long term but the timeline carries significant uncertainty >Regardless of whether CPO or NPO ultimately adopted the optical components supply chain will continue to benefit Discussion This article thoroughly dissects the controversy triggered by the SemiAnalysis report The focus is not on denying the future of CPO but on highlighting the precision alignment difficulties during mass production Active alignment involves six degrees of freedom making it extremely easy for tiny deviations to cause high optical loss Spectrum-X has high port density and cannot easily replace faulty optical engines like Quantum-X This leads to a situation where with 95% yield per engine the probability of all 32 engines being good drops sharply to about 19% To achieve acceptable overall yield each attachment step needs to approach 99.5% yield threshold This presents a major challenge under current manufacturing processes NPO only needs to handle alignment for a single optical engine greatly reducing complexity It is suitable as a bridging technology before CPO matures Overall the article maintains a balanced perspective It acknowledges the reasonableness of the technical obstacles while pointing out that AI networking demand remains strong Investors and industry practitioners should closely monitor subsequent verification and solution progress


































