@typebulbit I understood; are you then saying that most smarter models correctly do fdt?
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technical_butterflies
597 posts
@techbflies Oh, that's for the free model. You have to login to put in API keys to test different models. I don't have unlimited cash for people to run Opus prompts!
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Can LLMs predict each other? Pit LLMs against each other in Newcomb's problem & Parfit's Hitchhiker:
typebulb.com/u/samples/mind…
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@typebulbit Well, the decisions in my runs using your site appear to be basically using EDT, going by what the model says.
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@allTheYud @typebulbit (excluding that they seem to have already put model outputs on newcomb &c. online)
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@allTheYud @typebulbit ... elaborate further?
but also; isn't what has already been written sufficient?
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Claude is not able to write validly about decision theory... and I would be shocked if EA grantwriters could spot its actual mistakes. The day you're fired is not when you can't see the difference in AI outputs, but when your boss's boss can't see the difference.
🐝StabbithaAllAlong🐝@Stabbitha2
I keep saying that AI *sounds good* but if you ask it to demonstrate in an area of personal expertise, you can see how much bullshit it's really offering. Like, IDK how good the coding is, but I can extrapolate from it's art skills. 😬
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@patio11 Ah, my superpower was actually engaging with the reading, even if I was literally reading excerpts in class.
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Doing the reading is a superpower, and it's even better in a world where "no one" is doing the reading. (Inspired by a conversation I had with some college students.)
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@gbrlvv @cremieuxrecueil Wait? Seriously? There are magic doodads like this for THIS cheap? Why doesn't every doctor have one of these in their office?!?
ebay.com/itm/3177598813…
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never once in 2013–2020 did i find myself in a pronoun circle or was otherwise asked my pronouns in such away that not answering required actively declining
not in college classes, not in the corporate office, not even at the god damn queer conference at the liberal university
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@techbflies @ApriiSR string theory has the string tension which is assumed to be at Planck scale, too, afaik. The Planck scale *is* fundamental. That's different from not having an established theory.
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i find this topic broadly confusing, but like i am pretty sure that the universe is not composed of a big voxel grid of planck-length-edged cubes. i don't know how it works but it isn't that
Elon Musk@elonmusk
@Rainmaker1973 The universe is fundamentally integer. There are a finite number of Planck cubes, which means a limited number of digits of pi (which can be thought of in integer form) to calculate volume. And you cannot have a fraction of a quark or lepton, so … integer.
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@robinhanson Shouldn't this be irrelevant to nuclear policy or beliefs about that kind of radiation damage, because this isn't ionizing radiation? Like the only problem is if it heats you, like in ye olde days with the microwave deep heating "massagers"
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"Every single radiation group outlived the control. … The smallest dose produced the largest benefit. The same pattern shows up in exercise, fasting, and cold exposure. A mild biological stressor activates repair mechanisms that wouldn’t otherwise turn on. Over 3,000 published papers have documented this across microbes, plants, insects, and mammals. … The US still builds its entire radiation safety framework on the opposite assumption"
Aakash Gupta@aakashgupta
The US government spent $25 million over a decade trying to prove your cell phone gives you cancer. The study accidentally produced one of the strongest pieces of evidence for radiation hormesis ever recorded. The NTP study was nominated by the FDA in 1999 specifically because they expected to find harm. They built 21 custom reverberation chambers in Switzerland. Exposed 1,679 mice and 859 rats to cell phone frequencies for 9 hours a day, every day, for 2 years. The whole operation was designed as the definitive “cell phones cause cancer” study. The cancer results were mixed at best. Male rats got more heart schwannomas. Mice showed nothing significant. But the survival data was so unexpected that the researchers didn’t even know how to explain it in their own report. Look at the survival curve. Every single radiation group outlived the control. The 2.5 W/kg group hit p=0.0020, the only statistically significant result in the entire longevity analysis. By day 700, the control group’s survival probability had dropped to ~0.65. The lowest dose group was still above 0.80. That’s the hormesis signature. The smallest dose produced the largest benefit. The same pattern shows up in exercise, fasting, and cold exposure. A mild biological stressor activates repair mechanisms that wouldn’t otherwise turn on. Over 3,000 published papers have documented this across microbes, plants, insects, and mammals. The French Academy of Sciences formally accepted it in 2005. The US still builds its entire radiation safety framework on the opposite assumption: that all radiation, at any dose, causes proportional harm. The FCC limit for cell phones is 1.6 W/kg. Your AirPods operate at a fraction of that. The dose that produced the strongest longevity signal in this study was 2.5 W/kg. Barely above the regulatory ceiling. The entire regulatory framework for wireless device safety assumes a dose-response curve that this $25 million study failed to find.
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@KelseyTuoc @cljack i thought it was because he was hot? haven't seen it yet but assumed it had hot guy doing hot guy things
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@cljack there's something about all WWII era movies - and I'm sure some of it is intentional propaganda - where a guy can be an enormous fuckup (but in a kind of cool way) and then redeemed utterly by choosing 'not the Nazis' when the choice arrives
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My daughter is old enough now to join me in the tradition of watching Casablanca on every long-haul plane trip followed by a good cry that men no longer dress or act like that, if they ever did 🥰
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@comicstosteal @peterwildeford And if they do good at making money, it will be to push the market to their confidence level. And if they're dumb, informed traders get incentivized to profit off of their noise. And thus the stats end up showing p good calibrated markets even at mid-low liquidity.
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@comicstosteal @peterwildeford If people want to make money, they will bet honestly.
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A journalist received death threats and bribe offers up to $900,000 from Polymarket gamblers trying to get him to rewrite a story...
Prediction markets are getting out of hand...
Kim Zetter@KimZetter
Gamblers on Polymarket threatened Israeli journo if he didn't change report about Iranian missile that struck Israel. Also, an Israeli reservist and civilian were indicted for using classified info to make bets before Israel bombed Iran last June timesofisrael.com/gamblers-tryin…
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@comicstosteal @peterwildeford ...so? the whole point is that aside from some asterisks, you expect to make the most money if you bet honestly
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@peterwildeford People referencing prediction markets like that they're people's honest predictions weighted by confidence
But the people betting with prediction markets just like to make money
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While one should be realistic, dating married people can also lead to primary relationship. I dated a married woman for two years and now we're all moving in together (I know at least one other person this has happened to)
Pandora (Dr. Bimbo)@Pandora_Delaney
Dating a married man as a poly person can be great. But it’s important to relate to it as a secondary thing while you find your own primary relationship. (If that’s something you want to.) A lot of poly problems are solved when you accept reality as it is.
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@allTheYud @Halcyon1110242 @perrymetzger I think my actual worry was helping bring the people together for it, or possibly causing them to think AGI was achievable and thus pursue it; but I'm not sure how much of that would've happened anyways.
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As Perry Metzger will exaggerate, I didn't help create the technology. I've been careful not to give them capability ideas, even in the course of giving warnings. Eg, if you reread my "The Trick That Never Works" it should be obvious that I knew RL on CoT and inference scaling was on the way, but was carefully talking around it.
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I wonder how much of Western civilization's collapse is downstream of writers and scriptwriters deciding they were too cool and sophisticated to write about good people doing good things.
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@allTheYud As for myself: I think I like less good heros, and even still almost all the media I can think of principally features a mostly morally upstanding hero or team of heros trying to do mostly actually good things. Even Game of Thrones has Tyrion and the Eunuch!
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@allTheYud ...so, okay, name some media that the youth are into nowadays that you think is doing bad along these lines? I consume less (and weirder) media than most but my friends often mention Avatar (anime) (&sequel), Arcane, recently Iron Lung. IIUC these have good guys doing good.
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@ApriiSR Imagine numbering prisoners in a movie set in 2026.
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why do they number prisoners. that sounds more like sci fi than 1850
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@liz_love_lace i have no clue how to describe the taste of something. htf do you describe the taste of a chocolate cake? "chocolatey, cakey, fluffier than non cake bread, but not as fluffy as super fluffy cake, giving a 'rich' feeling"?
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Why the fuck do restaurant menus have all that info about a dish but not what it tastes like?! That's like almost the only thing I care about, and it's easily obtainable information, why would you omit it
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sometimes i enter a restaurant for the first time and they ask me what i want to get and it's like. I don't know. I'm here for the first time! "I'm here for the first time, what would you suggest?", then half the time they start reading the menu to me. Just tell me what to get
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