That Texas Guy

@Flehmenwaffe @TY203922055166 @BullTheoryio Nah, but enough to be happy in my simple life.

@txguy1980 @TY203922055166 @BullTheoryio How many millions have you made so far this cycle? Has our little investor already broken throught the $1bn mark and secured generational wealth for his offspring? 😃

🚨Michael Burry just said Elon Musk and Nvidia's deal is built on fake numbers. Burry published a detailed breakdown calling the entire structure "Fugazi", his word for fake. He is alleging that billions of dollars in Nvidia chips are being hidden off balance sheets, and that American retirees are unknowingly funding the whole thing. Nvidia, the world's largest AI chip company sold $5.4 billion worth of its most advanced GPUs, the GB200, to a company called Valor. Valor is not a real operating business. It is a special purpose vehicle, a shell company created specifically to hold these chips and nothing else. Nvidia also invested $1.9 billion of its own money directly into Valor on top of the sale. Those 100,000+ chips are now physically inside xAI's data center. xAI is Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company, the one that builds Grok. xAI is using every single one of those chips right now to run its AI models. But here is what Burry is flagging. Neither Nvidia nor xAI owns those chips on paper. Valor, the shell company holds legal title. That means $5.4 billion in GPU assets do not show up on Nvidia's balance sheet as inventory. They do not show up on xAI's balance sheet as assets. They are legally invisible to both companies. Nvidia gets to book the $5.4 billion as a completed sale and record it as revenue. xAI gets full use of the chips without owning them. And the risk disappears into a shell company in the middle. Now here is where American retirees enter the picture. Valor needed $3.5 billion in debt to fund this structure. Apollo provided it. Apollo is one of the largest asset managers on earth with $1.03 trillion under management and $834 billion specifically in private credit. Apollo raised the $3.5 billion, packaged it into debt securities, and sold those securities to Athene. Athene is Apollo's own insurance company. It sells fixed and indexed annuities, retirement savings products, to ordinary Americans. When a retiree buys an Athene annuity, they believe their money is sitting in safe, stable investments. That money is now inside a structure funding Elon Musk's AI data center. The numbers inside Athene are most alarming. Athene holds $74.2 billion in reserves. It has moved $217 billion in assets into a captive insurer based in Bermuda, meaning those assets sit outside normal US insurance regulation and oversight. Of the entire portfolio, 34.7%, equal to $103 billion, is classified as Level 3 assets. Level 3 is an accounting classification that means there is no observable market price for these assets. No outside party can independently verify what they are actually worth. The leverage sitting on top of those unpriced assets is 16 times. Burry's says: Every step of this structure is technically legal and publicly disclosed. But the entire thing was deliberately engineered across 8 to 12 steps to move credit risk off balance sheets and away from any market pricing. - Nvidia books the revenue. - Apollo collects the fees. - xAI gets the computing power. - And retirees sitting at the bottom of a 16x leveraged Bermuda insurance structure, holding $103 billion in assets with no market price carry the risk without knowing it exists.

@TY203922055166 @BullTheoryio And has been for years. These permabears missing a generational rally trying to time a crash.

@BullTheoryio Cool, nvidia projecting to make $250B in net profits in 1 year, and he is worried about $5.4B in revenue. Micheal Burry is on the wrong side of this trade😂

@breakpointAV Another great pick. Haven't seen any posts in awhile. Hope all is well!

$CRDO Obviously I think that the rotation back into AI has already begun, and the infrastructure play will roll out over the next few years barring a massive disruption. Let's go through what CRDO does. Credo is a fabless semiconductor company that makes high-speed connectivity chips and cable assemblies for AI data centers. The business is almost entirely product sales today. Product sales comprised roughly 97.5% of total revenue in the most recent reported quarter, with IP licensing making up the remaining 2.5%. That licensing stub used to be a bigger part of the story when Credo licensed its SerDes intellectual property to other chipmakers, but the company has deliberately shifted toward product revenue because the margins are better and the volumes are exploding. Within products, the flagship is the Active Electrical Cable, or AEC. These are copper cables with Credo's own digital signal processor (DSP) chips embedded at each end, allowing them to carry data at speeds that passive copper cannot sustain over meaningful distances. At 800G and now 1.6T data rates, passive copper reaches its physical limits within a rack; Credo's AECs use thin, flexible cabling with built-in signal processing, reducing rack weight and improving airflow while extending reach to seven meters. The rest of the IC portfolio includes optical DSPs (chips that sit inside optical transceivers) and PCIe retimers (chips that clean up signal integrity between CPUs, GPUs, and storage within a server). If Credo vanished tomorrow, the companies building the world's largest AI training clusters would face a shortage of qualified, high-reliability copper interconnects at the exact moment demand for GPU connectivity is compounding, with no drop-in substitute at commercial scale. The bigger asterisk is customer concentration. A single customer generated 67% of total fiscal 2025 revenue. By Q3 fiscal 2026 that had diversified somewhat to a top-three of 39%, 32%, and 17%, but this is still a business that can lose 30% of its revenue if one hyperscaler pauses its cluster buildout or decides to shift to a competitor or internal solution. This is not a good business characteristic; it is a necessary feature of serving a market with only five or six meaningful buyers. CEO Bill Brennan made the correct early bet on AEC, has been transparent about lumpy revenue patterns, and resisted the temptation to diversify too early into markets the team didn't know. The DustPhotonics deal is the first major test of whether that discipline holds at larger capital outlays. If you believe in Credo you're buying that hyperscaler AI CapEx continues compounding for at least three more years, that no single hyperscaler builds or buys a competitive internal AEC solution, and that Credo can successfully transition from copper specialist to full-stack optical player before co-packaged optics makes the AEC market structurally smaller.

@breakpointAV Guess whos back, back again, Breakpoint is back, tell a friend. Guess whos back guess whos back Guess whos back...na na nah

$FLYW shorts entered expecting software sector weakness. Flywire has absorbed that sell pressure without breaking $11. @breakpointAV | NFA

@SuperDuperInvst @anni_sen See akam, net, etc. Anthropic is why. Anthropic Launch Sends Fastly Down 18%, Cloudflare And Akamai Also Fall share.google/ekE7Kb1KsbJKq1…

Because it reported stronger than expected last qtr which made its stock surge very strongly very quickly to $33+ which is where it was. Not sure why suddenly stock dipped to <$23 in just 2 sessions but it could either be profit taking or may be someone knows of a capital raise coming? Irrespective they seem to be doing very well which will reflect in the latest qtr end that they announced ER date yesterday. I feel recent dip offers good opportunity to slowly add upon dips and unload within a month for 20% to 60% gains if the earnings will be just like last qtr. Just check my tweets on $AAOI which saw similar rises and falls but within a year now it is UP 1400% imo.

Who’s buying $PLTR here?

@the_truth_1977 @SaltLineReb @therealdbREAL @JKeynesAlpha How? Iran literally has no planes or ships left. US forces can freely fly over skies. The only x factor we need to work on in the future is drones and drone defense. The US military is so far ahead of any other military it isn't fair. Insane take.

@SaltLineReb @therealdbREAL @JKeynesAlpha Why are you still sucking on Trump’s balls? The US military is being exposed as outdated, weak, and ineffective.

Start a war with no apparent plan or strategy other than hoping Iranian people will rise up (they didn’t). Bomb the crap out of everything (doesn’t work). Don’t plan for the closure of Hormuz (all oil stopped). Try to bully EU NATO allies to fix it (they won’t because they weren’t consulted and a month ago an invasion of Greenland was threatened in earnest now they hate the U.S.). Gulf states getting bombed (but not retaliating). Try to TACO (impossible because it’s a full on serious war now). Crash the markets and set up a stagflationary recession (gaslight everyone every 2 hours about how everything is great and it’s almost over and inside trade it with administration buddies). Say it’s over (it’s not). Say you will never put boots on the ground (you become another worse version of George W. Bush). Basically do the dumbest thing ever seen in the Middle East, screw it up royally, and leave everyone else holding the bag.

@ImBreckWorsham He was the lesser of two evils. Where MAGA screwed up was writing off the much young DeSantis.

I'm a woman. I'm accustomed to men lying to me, which is why I remain single. I'm a journalist who's covered politics professionally since 2008. I'm accustomed to politicians lying to me. That's just what they do. I don't trust people. Which is why I don't associate with many of them. But Trump snuck right in under my radar, man. He made me trust him. I BELIEVED him when he said he was different. Never again. Never, NEVER again.

@elonmusk But ugly, for real Mr Musk

Cybertruck is quicker than a Porsche 911, more powerful than a Ford Raptor

@shipwreckshow You are washed. Used to like you.

I would probably caution against downloading a government app to your phone. But you do you.

@shipwreckshow @cfg_504 He got u. Ngl

@cfg_504 You downloaded it didn't you...

@DreamDividend Appreciate that. Guess what I am saying is Trump isn't the first to go to war nor will he be the last. No need to play politics with our service members. You can be a Never Trumper but he isn't the first or last POTUS to start a conflict. The pre 1945 list is just as long...

@txguy1980 That’s right. I would never belittle your service by comparing it to a football game or video game. Some aren’t as respectful Thank you 🙏

Already? 🤷‍♀️ is it still just an adventure or… excursion?? Oh wait.. a video game with our sons and daughters as the players Promise, I promise 🫵 not mad enough

@CFlanders7 Everyone is so bearish. It must go down. Easy money.

Might be tempted to buy this but if you’ve studied history, crashes typically happen from very oversold levels.

@mark_slapinski Source: Trust me bro

There are reports that Trump is considering using a NUCLEAR WEAPON on Iran. He must be impeached!

@austinsilverfx Yep, midterms are looming. He will tap soon because high gas will hurt that ego.

Since last time I filled up my truck, which was like 3 weeks ago, gas has gone up at least $1.50 Not sure Trumps plan here, but people will start complaining soon

@Steve734734 @DreamDividend Dude is a never trumper. Best to unfollow and ignore. It is a mental health issue that cant be treated.

@DreamDividend That was wild you went from the pentagon deploying 5k troops to a post about someone you dislike.

@BlackPantherCap What about the fact all of fintwit "gurus" have flipped bearish after pumping hims, ai, melo, etc over the past few months? A lot of gurus have been humbled.

We are literally ONE HEADLINE away from a MASSIVE correction. The signals are stacking: Geopolitical: > Boots on the ground rumors > War shows no signs of ending > Israeli PM’s status unknown > Oil climbing, WTI pushing higher Macro: > No massive rate cuts coming > GDP growth missing expectations > The FED isn’t riding to the rescue this time Market structure: > VIX at 27. Uptrend since February 12th. > Third straight weekly loss on the S&P > And today, Jim Cramer called the market “oversold” and said he’s buying That last one alone should concern you. We are literally one headline away from a real correction. Not a dip. A correction. I’ve moved to ~16% cash today. Here’s why: This isn’t panic. This is pattern recognition. I still love every thesis in my portfolio. $IREN. $NBIS. $ONDS. $KRKNF. $RKLB. $CIFR. $AMPX. $OSS. Nothing changed fundamentally. But markets DON’T CARE about fundamentals when fear takes over. Cash is a position. And right now, cash is the trade. Depending on how Monday opens, I may continue trimming toward 20-25% cash. I’d rather be early and wrong than late and down 30%. The conviction isn’t gone. The entries will come back. Watching and ready.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Note: This is not financial advice.

@DreamDividend @BBCBreaking Or you are a Never Trumper. Probably more likely.

@BBCBreaking He’s panicking. Realizing he and he alone started this and it’s going to end tragically for the US

US President Donald Trump urges UK and other nations to send ships to help secure key Strait of Hormuz oil trade route bbc.in/4cMVSj2

@TheMarketRaven I like your account but zero chance if this happening... short of us doing it in self defense. Trump has a big stick but actually has a heart hidden behind all the doucyness. He is about legacy and he doesnt want his legacy to be nuking a lot of innocent people. Bad take.

@buddy6buddy @endless_frank Or its because the spy has been bullish since 2009. It will continue once this war is over.

@endless_frank He has said we destroyed their military every day but yet it keeps escalating. He is the boy who cried wolf. His TACO last Monday help for 2 days and now we are lower. All he is doing is causing more fear hence why the market is going lower and will continue to

In addition to the successful targeting of Kharg Island here’s the “thing” that markets wanted to hear to take everyone’s long vol and open put money away from them. This is the “signal” that things get better from here and up we go.