Ananke Group

Consider this nightmare scenario: Trump keeps at it for few more weeks/months, fails to dislodge IRN regime and works out a deal instead: a partial restoration of shipping & side payments to IRGC. The global economy adjusts, but the Gulf states stay held to ransom by Iran.

Worth noting you can't really do Kharg without reopening Hormuz. Might be possible to stage some sort of SOF raid with support out of Kuwait or Bahrain but to really take & defend it the US will need to push a Marine ARG and Aegis destroyers for top cover far up into the Gulf.

#China's crude oil imports from its biggest supplier, Russia, were 21.8 million tons in the first two months of 2026, or 2.7 million barrels per day, up 41% year-on-year, according to customs data published on Friday. The daily import rate in the first two months hit a record high, at least since 2015, according to Reuters calculations based on customs data. #oott marketscreener.com/news/china-s-c…

@EuropaMagnifica Les droitardés français c'est un sketch permanent. Une mauvaise blague, plutôt ...

Le tweet a été effacé il semblerait. Peut-être se sont-elles rendu compte que cela faisait penser aux associations de banlieues 🇫🇷 soutenues par l’ambassade 🇺🇸. Ça fait toujours mauvais genre d’être lié à une puissance étrangère qui ne travaille, elle, qu’à ses propres intérêts.

La Commission 🇪🇺 va proposer aux pays membres de réduire les taxes sur l'électricité et de subventionner les prix comme mesure rapide d'atténuation du choc provoqué par la guerre contre l'Iran.

Les États-Unis lèvent les sanctions contre deux géants de la potasse, Belaruskali et la Compagnie Biélorusse de Potasse (BPC). Une rare bonne nouvelle pour les agriculteurs du monde entier en ces temps de crise. lemonde.fr/international/….

The economic situation in Ukraine is precarious, heavily dependent on foreign aid whose consistency in the coming years is questionable. Spending 27% worth of its GDP on defense, while Russia spends the equivalent of 5.1%, makes the long-term sustainability of the war questionable and is driving the country toward a financial abyss. Quoting the article: "We believe that Ukraine, by continuing the war and increasing taxes, is moving toward default and economic collapse," says the think tank Ukrainian Institute of the Future in a recent assessment of the economy. Unfortunately, the near-collapsed and now unstable electricity infrastructure will have an additional impact this year. Russia executed an operational pause this winter and focused on strategic deep strikes to degrade Ukraine’s ability to wage war. Victory will be decided on this front, where endurance is key. This year’s budget expenditures are not fully funded, and are likely underestimated. I maintain my hypothesis that a real assessment of both sides’ perspectives will occur next winter; the focal point will be reached or not. See my previous analysis on these topics 👇 #UkraineRussiaWar #Strategy #Economy

B Netanyahou ne dit pas la même chose à son électorat & au reste du monde. Combien de tps durera la guerre ? «Aussi longtemps que nécessaire», (en hébreu aux journalistes israéliens). «Plus tôt que vous ne le pensez», (en anglais aux correspondants étrangers) @LeFigaro_France

Russia has spent billions and billions of dollars building ghost pipelines to serve the Japan and SK markets. They are still incomplete but it would be barely an inconvenience to finish them up. I assume they would want to sign nice long contracts and the Asian counterparties would be relieved not to be dependent on Middle East for energy. Bad news for Europe if all this goes down…their gas at preferential prices might never come back.

Shout out to Qatar for the worst return on a $400M bribe in history.

native Emiratis are only 12% of the entire population If the UAE is going to declare war on Iran, are they going to draft tourists into the military?

Africa after aid is more resilient than you might think. economist.com/leaders/2026/0…

Morgan Stanley published this chart about massive disruptions in industries across the board

On touche au sublime. Appliquer une taxe que tes voisins ne suivent pas, les voir accueillir ces colis et te les réexpédier ensuite. Les génies qui ont voté et applaudi pour ça, on vous voit...

Le prédécesseur n'était pas une colombe mais celui-là semble effectivement plus radical... x.com/i/status/20346…

Coupe une tête et il en sortira une autre. Trump aurait déclaré à ses collaborateurs être favorable à l'assassinat du nouveau guide suprême iranien (fils de ...) si ce dernier n'accepte pas les demandes américaines. Ça peut durer un moment si on joue à ça ...

Every 1 million tonnes of lost urea production in the world in 2026 reduces grain production by 7-8 million tonnes. A sobering thought.

Satellite imagery suggests Iranian strikes hit a U.S. Patriot SAM site in Bahrain, damaging two hardened shelter structures (one heavily). The shelters likely housed launchers, radar components, or missile stockpiles, meaning the strike degrades the battery’s operational capacity even if it’s not fully destroyed. Source: @EGYOSINT

JUST IN - Saudi oil officials fear oil prices could rise above $180 a barrel — WSJ

That would mean having Saudi on board. Not happening anytime soon ...

Hegseth : « les munitions destinées à l'Ukraine seraient mieux utilisées pour notre propre intérêt. » Il ne manquerait plus que les Européens continuent de payer et que Kiev ne voit rien venir ... La préférence communautaire, on en reparle?