Jason Balan
5.3K posts
prediction (if no s3 news). Market drops another 5% in the coming weeks and $MSOS drops with it 10-15%. Watch the usual “going to $2” crew to be out saying “someone knows” “rescheduling postponed” yada yada yaaaddaaaaa. Big gains ahead, carry on thru the noise.
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Hey @Bkov9 time to bring back earnings calls. As more and more eyes start looking to this space, not having earnings call will be an unnecessary red flag for investors
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@FI_JDH Only if you like it at 50x EV/EBITDA, while industry peers trade at 4-5x.
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@DenisRudev Overwhelming majority will vote against it until the doj reschedules. So, correct not another “delay“ headline - but DOA.
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Bipartisan infrastructure just hit the table — and it’s the missing piece Wall Street has been waiting for.
The CLIMB Act (Capital Lending and Investment for Marijuana Businesses) dropped this week: safe harbor for banks to lend, protection for SBA/CDFI grants, and — crucially — the green light for state-legal MSOs to list on NYSE & Nasdaq.
Pair that with the CMS Medicare CBD pilot (full-spectrum, up to 3mg THC/serving) launching in days, and you have real federal scaffolding: capital access + medical validation + potential 280E relief on the horizon.
No more trading at distressed multiples while foreign peers and alcohol/tobacco comps get normal financing.
This isn’t another delay headline.
It’s the structural unlock that turns $1.6B+ in shadow tax liabilities into survivable transition costs — and lets strong-balance-sheet operators ($GTBIF $TLRY $TCNNF $CURA) scale like legitimate businesses.
Once listings + lending flow, which MSOs do you see ringing the bell first on a major exchange?
$MSOS #CLIMBAct #MSOGang #CannabisCapital #Schedule3
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The @USCRorg is in DC today lobbying lawmakers on cannabis policy. It appears the industry is pushing the CLIMB Act, a narrow cannabis reform bill focused on banking and capital markets access.
The path forward for the bill isn't yet clear.
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@SeanKiernan_WFW @TheDankInformer If you’re buying it by the pound you don’t sound like the avg consumer, Sean. Of course not every blk market/intoxicating hemp consumer is going to switch to regulated!
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Oh my lord you guys really don’t know what’s going on, do you.
I can buy $300 to $400 lbs at gray market seshes.
You may want to reevaluate your 20% assumption.
Also, understand there was one large black market that was hiding behind hemp. That isn’t going away.
Consumers are not interested in paying stupid money for average products.
The black market will continue to win. Then what / who will you blame?
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@SeanKiernan_WFW @TheDankInformer Precisely - so if intoxicating hemp is gone, the consumer gets a choice between their back ally dealer, or pay 20% more from the regulated industry. Sales are going up for the multi state operator however you want to slice it.
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@TheDankInformer The consumer cares about price. MSOS can’t compete and the cannabis consumer doesn’t give a shit about stock bros suing each other over your losses.
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@cmarttrades Been clear as day for quite a long time, unfortunately. Too bad (more) operators wouldn’t call it out!
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Are you all paying attention to the corruption in $MSOS yet?
March2Millions@March2Millions
A reminder that despite holding a fiduciary duty to share holders. $MSOS instead decided to help swap providers, (paid by shareholder $). By selling Tier 1's into major inflows per their request, as they were caught offside by Trump tweeting about cannabis. #BuytheUnderlyings
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@HammanShares @V_arrell @HenryLuMencken @cannaVester @OTCExpert101 Another post which has aged very poorly Noah. Again, this is why your EFT $msos $msox is garbage, horrible management.
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Everyone has there favorite- this is one of the biggest "slept on" #Cannabis Stocks in the sector. "Know what you Own"- FWIW I don't even consider this a Bag hold at this point.
P.s. Y'all gotta read through them 8 and 10K's- Bunch of 🍞 crumbs. $CNTMF
"Inputs + Outputs= Price Control"
W.E.B Doobie (Du'Beie)@cannaVester
But But- I think $CNTMF is the real Diamond in the Rough. MM have been pinning price discovery for months. There has been Deliberate price absortion on this company, this will have a nice little run. The company is "STILL" an owned equity of $SMG, Who intends to replatform its entire Cannabis portfolio early this year.
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Schedule III is not the final destination for cannabis.🍃
Dan Ahrens @InvestinginCan1 explains why listings on major exchanges and real banking access are what could change the investing landscape, and why the CLIMB Act matters in that context.
Which cannabis operators would you most want to see listed on a major exchange?
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@srg444 can't rerate when there is little to no interest from institutional investors, the sector has used and spat out the rest of retail.
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Everyone wants cannabis to rerate.
Very few want to do the work on who actually earns it.
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Nasdaq/ NYSE uplist + Schedule III = rocket fuel. $HITI $GTBIF $TCNNF first in line. Institutions flood in. #MSOGang—tell me your top pick.
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@__OuttaControl_ @TheCrusaderDeux Pilot is not related to cannabis rescheduling. DEA already has HHS recommendation to reschedule to S3.
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Update on my previous ramblings - and this one comes straight from CMS.gov, published late last night.
The official Substance Access Beneficiary Engagement Incentive page is live. Here's what it confirms:
• April 1. In writing. On a federal government website. Not Mehmet Oz at a podium - CMS.gov. For anyone who was dubious of the April 1 start date, there it is.
• Up to 3mg per serving of tetrahydrocannabinols - delta-8, delta-10, THCA - in orally administered products. Confirmed clinical parameter. No synthetics. Naturally occurring cannabinoids only. Someone at CMS wrote that specification deliberately.
• Medicare does not pay for the products. ACOs fund up to $500/year per patient voluntarily out of their own shared savings. Patients pay nothing. But here's why that's actually the stronger signal: ACOs are risk-bearing organizations with their own money on the line. When they voluntarily fund cannabinoid therapy, it's because they believe it will reduce hospitalizations and downstream costs. So what was initially presented as a government subsidy is instead a market-based validation of therapeutic efficacy. That's big!
But to me the most important line in the entire document (buried in the FAQ) is this one:
"If the legal limits on hemp-derived products changes, as with Section 781 of the FY2026 Agriculture Appropriations Act, CMS will adjust its definition in accordance with the law."
Read that again. CMS is explicitly acknowledging the November Farm Bill cliff, and rather than saying the program will end, they're saying the definition might adjust. In my opinion, that is not the language of an agency expecting its program to be shut down in eight months, rather the language of an agency anticipating the underlying law to change around it.
So the architecture isn't just taking shape - it's now being published on government websites.
Happy Sunday. Touch some grass, hug your dog (or your kid / partner / neighbor if you're not lucky enough to have a dog). We are living in heavy times. The news cycle is relentless, the macro is brutal, and if you're a cannabis investor you've been white-knuckling it for years with very little to show for it.
So take this small kernel of good news - a government agency quietly publishing a federal program page on a Friday night that confirms, in writing, that progress is real and happening. And let it be enough for today.
**Not financial advice. Just a guy reading federal documents so you don't have to.
The Antelope@__OuttaControl_
Not spiking the football (and obv neither is the market) but two items dropped today that, read together, are worth noting for anyone tracking cannabis rescheduling. First: The Medicare CBD pilot launching April 1 will allow full-spectrum products, meaning trace THC is included. The government could have narrowed this to CBD isolate. They didn't. That's a quiet but meaningful acknowledgment of the entourage effect - that the combination of cannabinoids produces better clinical outcomes than CBD alone. You don't design a Medicare pilot around full-spectrum products without believing the THC interaction matters therapeutically. And before anyone says 'the hemp industry just lobbied for this' - Charlotte's Web would have taken isolate coverage and celebrated. The full-spectrum spec is a clinical design choice, not a lobbying win. Second: Rep. Reschenthaler (R-PA) introduced H.R.7987 today, creating a safe harbor for national securities exchanges to list cannabis companies and prohibiting federal adverse action against businesses that serve cannabis operators. Here's the dot-connect: Schedule I is defined as 'no currently accepted medical use.' The federal government is now covering full-spectrum cannabinoid products (including THC) for seniors through a physician-recommended Medicare pilot. You cannot hold both of those positions simultaneously forever. HHS already formally concluded in 2023 that cannabis has accepted medical use. The EO directed the AG to expedite rescheduling. The pilot is now building the real-world evidence record that makes DEA resistance increasingly indefensible. The rescheduling isn't done. 280E relief isn't here yet. But consider what today actually represents: on the same day a federal health agency quietly acknowledged that THC has therapeutic value by designing a Medicare pilot around it, a Republican congressman introduced legislation to let cannabis companies list on national exchanges. One is the scientific predicate. The other is the capital markets infrastructure. You don't build the second without the first eventually following. Cautious optimism is the right posture. But the architecture is taking shape
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@__OuttaControl_ @CannaSzn @TheCrusaderDeux But, rivers set up her (partial) divestment during a liquidity event! ☺️
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Honestly? No idea. And I'd be skeptical of anyone who claims they do.
Could it be a few months of trial data, synthesized, then a rescheduling announcement timed perfectly before the midterms for maximum political impact? Sure. That's a coherent theory.
Could Trump be on the golf course right now with Kessler and announce it Monday? Also not impossible.
This administration operates on a timeline that has humbled every pundit who thought they had it figured out. More than any administration I've watched, the answer to 'when' is genuinely: nobody knows.
What I do know is that I don't want to be out of position when it happens. Whenever that is.
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@stocksvancouver @JT_in_LA @ErichP Rigged would mean the etf mangers are conspiring w the swap providers, mm’s, and ap’s… no? 🫣
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