Slingshot

ERIC NUTTAL: PEACE DEAL OR NOT - WHY OIL IS ABOUT TO SPIKE SHARPLY HIGHER The renowned oil market analyst Eric Nuttall emphasises that even if Donald Trump and Iran reach the best possible peace agreement and the Strait of Hormuz is immediately reopened in full, oil prices will not plummet again. A major short-term price spike is now imminent in the coming days and weeks as depleted inventories trigger real shortages. The market still believes everything snaps back to normal overnight. It will not. THE SHOCKING SUPPLY LOSS ➡️ Middle East producers have already shut in a staggering 13 million barrels per day as storage fills with trapped ships. ➡️ That equals roughly 400 million barrels lost every single month — far beyond any pre-crisis glut the market priced in. THE SHORT-TERM INVENTORY CRUNCH ➡️ Floating storage and onshore safety cushions are now exhausted after weeks of disruption. ➡️ Final ships have reached destinations and real shortages are just starting to hit hard — jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline supplies are tightening rapidly. ➡️ Governments are already discussing rationing while airlines warn of billion-dollar hits from higher fuel costs. THE COVID PARALLEL ➡️ COVID delivered the biggest demand shock in history through lockdowns and halted travel. ➡️ Today we are experiencing the biggest supply shock in history with 13 million barrels per day offline. ➡️ To rebalance the market we need roughly 8 million barrels per day of demand destruction after SPR releases. ➡️ This can only come from government rationing like we saw in COVID — or significantly higher oil prices. THE 90-DAY LAG TRAP ➡️ 147 tankers are trapped and must exit, sail 25-30 days, unload, return, and reload — creating a minimum 90-day delay before normal flows resume. ➡️ This means over a billion barrels of production will still be forsaken even with an immediate reopening. THE NEW STRUCTURAL FLOOR ➡️ Global inventories are racing toward historic lows by late May and beyond. ➡️ Over 75 facilities damaged plus reservoir damage will take months to years to repair. ➡️ Add SPR restocking demand, customer diversification, and a permanent $10-20 political risk premium. THE BOTTOM LINE The day after any peace deal will not look like the old normal. Massive short-term supply shortfalls and depleted buffers guarantee higher — not lower — oil prices ahead. A painful price spike is coming sooner than the market expects. HT: YouTube Ninepoint Partners @ericnuttall #OilSpike #OilPrices #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyCrisis #HigherForLonger #OilBullMarket #InventoryCrunch

@paola_rojas @VCElements x.com/robert_ivanhoe…

Chile has been producing more copper than any other country for decades. In 2024, it produced 5.3Mt, with DRC and Peru filling up the rest of the podium. PS: keep an eye on Argentina... 📊 @VCElements $MUX $FOM $ATX

@AndyJay16634390 I dont think people have comprehend the implications of this crazy sh*t. It sits outside of anything they’ve witnessed or even read about historically.

Interesting times ahead…

Here's the war damage Arab oil exports fell 44% overall between February and March. But some got decimated: 🇮🇶 Iraq -82% exports. Nearly gone. 🇰🇼 Kuwait -75%. Force majeure declared. 🇶🇦 Qatar -70%. LNG + oil. Both hit. 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia -34%. Pipeline maxed, still losing. 🇦🇪 UAE -26%. Offshore production disrupted. 🇴🇲 Oman +117%. Ports outside Hormuz. Iraq lost 82% of its exports. A country that depends on oil for 90% of government revenue. Now running on 18% of normal exports. Want to see how my commodity portfolio is performing? Read my latest article here: themerchantsnews.substack.com/p/the-relief-r…

US Officials: Iran can't find all mines they laid in the Strait of Hormuz and so can't open up the waterway further - NYT

Like a slow moving oil tanker, you can easily see what is coming directly at the global economy. The stock market doesn't want to believe it, the paper market for oil doesn't want to believe it, but this is our reality:

@Ruycorto @DeItaone Flag ✅

@DeItaone $OIL Name this Pattern

CHINA HAS INDICATED IT WILL HALT EXPORTS OF SULFURIC ACID FROM MAY

Japan crude inventories are at their lows. Products . . . well they stopped reporting that 3 wks ago, so can't be good. Asia was the first to face the energy void.

Saudi pipeline throughput down 700,000BBl/d and productive capacity down by 600,000Bbl/d due to aggressive recent attacks which will take time to repair. This is sadly not over yet, and the market is far too complacent about the long-term consequences to the global energy market.

@Beta_Beaker Welcome back Beta

Hey #uTwits. Personal life challenges have kept me away from all things #uranium for a while. Happy to come back, properly, feeling very happy indeed. Finally, good news in my private life :) HODDLING.

“The illusion of spare capacity Sarah Kerr’s more provocative argument is that this crisis was “waiting to happen”. A decade of underinvestment, ESG-driven capital restraint and declining reserve replacement has hollowed out the global supply base.” the-pick.com.au/news/energy-sh…

Energy markets just broke. Strait of Hormuz disruption + years of underinvestment = a full-blown supply shock. Argonaut’s Sarah Kerr says oil could hit US$200 - and ASX energy stocks may be next to rerate. This isn’t a cycle. It’s structural. Read more 👇 the-pick.com.au/news/energy-sh… #OilMarket #OILUSD #EnergyMarkets

An incomplete list of what "the day after" will look like and why the US/Iran "excursion" will have a lasting impact on the oil market: 🛢️the process of Strait of Hormuz normalization will be measured in months even when "peace" comes, whatever that may look like. Voyage time to get empty vessels into the Strait and then back to destination points = months. Until then, production losses (now ~11MM Bbl/d) mount, yet safety buffers like unsanctioned oil-on-water and SPR will soon be very inadequate. Physical shortages imminent. 🛢️forecasted Middle Eastern production cumulative losses ~900MM Bbls even with things normalizing in April = death of the Super Glut narrative = baseline reset for balances. Inevitable demand destruction cannot offset 11MM Bbl/d of production losses. 🛢️production coming back online will take months (Kuwait saying 3-4 months, what of Iraq?) + potential for (semi) permanent losses due to reservoir damage 🛢️expected enduring political risk premium of $10/bbl-$20/bbl with new floor price of $70-$80 🛢️what is the value of OPEC spare capacity (all 1.5MM Bbl/of it pre-war) if much of it is vulnerable to a $30,000 drone = increasing strategic value of long-dated reserves in politically stable countries with egress (🇨🇦) 🛢️we already have strategic hoarding and product export bans, expect more countries to build SPRs = future demand 🛢️still TBD damage of many refineries and infrastructure = abnormally high refining margins, plus need to replenish what was already low stock levels

J.P. Morgan + Kpler just showed you the scale of this crisis. In one chart. 🛢️ Global crude exports: -9M b/d ⛽ Global product exports: -4M b/d The red line = 2026 Every other year = normal range 2026 = off the charts. Literally. This has NEVER happened before. Not in 2022. Not in 2020. Not in 2008. Jeff Currie said mid-to-late April is when inventories run out. You’re looking at why. 📊🚨

Bullish oil

@ausstockchick I’ll hold. Might look towards adding depending on how cheap it gets. Owning this is about longbterm bull market divvies

$WDS holders running for the exit?

@macca_qld @SilverDegen How old is that Macca? Is that Greek? Love it 👍👍👍

@SilverDegen Not for sale!

Whoever post an image of the most beautiful silver round in the comments I’ll buy it today. 👇🪙

@finding_finance I like it a lot

Copper to gold ratio, What do you think?

@wakenminds @ChaeYunChong For some context: Antoni Gaudi studied Architecture for 5 years, graduating in 1878. More like 150 years ago champ.

"you need a degree to build a house" Men without degrees 500 years ago: