Paul D Nelson

214 posts

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Paul D Nelson

Paul D Nelson

@ColdCapital

Joined Ekim 2012
93 Following69 Followers
Paul D Nelson
Paul D Nelson@ColdCapital·
@_danielle_carr I don't follow this market closely, but would offer that: These markets are enormous and large number of users are trading based real uses. It's not clear, in advance, which way the rug will be pulled, so hard to completely offset, though more illiquid than "usual".
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vanessa ogle
vanessa ogle@vanessahistory·
while I wait until my library reinstates its subscription, might I ask @abenanav to send me his response to @DylanRiley6216 and Brenner's long downturn/seven theses pieces?
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Paul D Nelson
Paul D Nelson@ColdCapital·
@MorganRicks1 Swap lines to foreign CBs start out limited, then move to uncapped. COVID "proved" that it worked. "Wait, what?!" Feels like we're on the other side of Bernanke et al Friedman-esque "don't let the money supply shrink and you'll be ok".
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Paul D Nelson
Paul D Nelson@ColdCapital·
@MorganRicks1 Luv me some Lev! Repeating myself, but the GFC seems to be the main trigger of this move. Paulson saying something like "unlimited spending without record or recourse", "bazooka". LEH and BSC fail. AIG (an its dependents) don't, etc.
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Paul D Nelson
Paul D Nelson@ColdCapital·
@MorganRicks1 It still kinda surprises me -- the degree to which "safety" is an active choice. No to Lehman and Bear; yes to Argentina and crypto...
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Morgan Ricks
Morgan Ricks@MorganRicks1·
Questions of monetary system design occasionally masquerade as questions of accounting.
Morgan Ricks tweet media
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Morgan Ricks
Morgan Ricks@MorganRicks1·
Future bailout candidates.
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Paul D Nelson
Paul D Nelson@ColdCapital·
@BldrInvstTech Oh wow, I "read" that feed! On 11/18, UVXY closed at $61.10; user predicting it hits $60 on 11/19. It closes at $59.30 (high was $62.40). Not clear what the bet was. Adversarial trader? Platform not suited for detailed analysis! 😂
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joshwa
joshwa@BldrInvstTech·
@ColdCapital i sense sarcasm ex ante calling for 60 but then ex post it is at 65... was i misreading or is it a pie in face?
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Paul D Nelson
Paul D Nelson@ColdCapital·
@JZ281C It seems the one thing that protects the US from EM treatment is the lack of a place of safety to run to. Who sells to who and what do they trade? It's not EM govys for bills... How will this one work?
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Paul D Nelson
Paul D Nelson@ColdCapital·
@JZ281C recession in year 1? blame it on biden and all's good by year 4???
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Paul D Nelson
Paul D Nelson@ColdCapital·
@karpmj The stock market roughly doubled over that timeframe?
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Paul D Nelson
Paul D Nelson@ColdCapital·
@omshanti08 Gold looking interesting into election. That's my focus...
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O.W. Root
O.W. Root@owroot·
Going to start referring to the 90s as the late 1900s
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Parallax Financial Research
Parallax Financial Research@ParallaxFR·
Here are some updated charts to share from the weekly scale tops in April. These have expired or will soon, but it's instructive to see that they mostly stayed in their trading boxes and ended up about where they started (Bitcoin, Russell 1000, Gold, Financials):
Parallax Financial Research tweet mediaParallax Financial Research tweet mediaParallax Financial Research tweet mediaParallax Financial Research tweet media
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Paul D Nelson
Paul D Nelson@ColdCapital·
@Akston_Capital I agree. Waiting for the end of August as these (silly) feedback models I run say it's gonna get frisky...
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Dr. Hugh Akston
Dr. Hugh Akston@Akston_Capital·
$NVDA may have great product that is in demand right now, but Street estimates for future EPS are incredibly unrealistic. Here is Stifel today assuming operating margins of 66% in FY 2027. The very best companies in the world earn op margins of 30-45%. Disclosure: short NVDA
Dr. Hugh Akston tweet mediaDr. Hugh Akston tweet media
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