CryptoAmsterdam@damskotrades
Market Overview
1. Higher Time Frames
2. Medium Time Frames
3. Altcoins
4. Rekt? A few things to start with today
// Higher Time Frames:
Still looking perfectly healthy.
- Bitcoin consolidates after the first leg up into fresh highs.
- Market structure still bullish.
- Still in line with previous cycle metrics.
- Total Altcoin Market Cap consolidating below range highs.
It reminds me of how Bitcoin consolidated below-range highs in 2024—chopping people up and driving them mentally insane.
Even those with a higher time frame bullish bias, right in hindsight, got wrecked trying to predict short-term moves:
- Super bearish at range lows.
- Super bullish at local/macro range highs.
Buying high in euphoria at the range high resistance, selling those buys at range lows weeks later for a loss.
My higher time frame bias for Bitcoin and the Total Altcoin Market Cap is still up.
We always have that first leg into new highs, which gets followed up by a period, or periods, of chop where people start questioning the top is in / PTSD kicks in / waiting for massive pullbacks that usually don't happen.
I think the probability of another leg up into the diminishing returns line is high.
That said, taking some profits here is smart if you entered early. Risk-reward is nothing like late 2023 when Bitcoin reclaimed the range low (yellow).
Personally, I took some profits over the last few months, but this cycle, I’m selling less Bitcoin than in previous years.
Bitcoin sales → Dollars, keeping more than usual.
Altcoin wins → Mix of long-term Bitcoin + Dollars.
This is my plan, not yours—make your own plan and risk strategy. My entry was in 2023; yours might be different, and my exit plan and situation might differ. It's really important to have a personal plan based on your situation, where you and your risk tolerance are okay with.
// Medium Time Frames:
My higher time frame bias is still up, but just like when Bitcoin was ranging below the range high in 2024 for like 8 months I intentionally have no bias here on the medium time frames.
Trying to time, trade, and predict these short/mid-term time frame zones of chop, literally designed to chop you out, will get 99% of the people their ass whooped.
For me, in 2024, it was simple; these zones often form a local range. Bitcoin formed a range below the range high while the total 3 (total altcoin market cap) formed a range at the range low. I slowly accumulated altcoins whenever they spiked in and below the range lows.
Now it's a different ball game as the total 3 is doing the same, but at the range high (different macro risk reward), and tokens like Solana already went from 100 to 300.
That does not change the fact that TA-wise I would, and am, I'm playing it kinda the same.
- Don't overtrade
- Don't try to predict when exactly things will break out or down
- Don't try to put a date to it
- Don't try to predict tomorrow or next weeks price.
- Focus on macro zones.
- Stick to spot
- Don't buy euphoria into the range high, but slowly buy panic into the range lows.
If this local range low of Bitcoin does break down with acceptance below, I'll be cautious again with new positions and wait for a new reclaim or lower prices before making any new trades.
We could chop here longer than most think.
// Altcoins
I mentioned I’m playing it differently now—how?
1. Back in 2024, Total 3 was at the range lows, so we focused on buying. Now, it’s at the range high—the first take profit zone—so my focus is on selling and getting out instead of accumulating.
Now it's a different ball game as the total 3 is doing the same local range, but this time it's at the range, high (different macro risk reward), and tokens like Solana went from $100 to $300 already.
Total 3 = Major Altcoins. It tracks the top 100 tokens minus Bitcoin & Ethereum. The recent run from range lows to range highs was mostly majors running (SOL, XRP, DOGE).
I missed XRP, but Solana has been a major part of my portfolio since 2023, and we added more at the Total 3 range low retest in 2024.
So, for the majors I accumulated:
> Slowly started selling first batch here (slowly/started/first batch aka I still hold most and aim higher)
> But open for new plays that aren't majors from the top 10
Just like we picked Solana because of its early strength, now, even more than before, I'll focus on momentum and the market tipping its hands on where the attention is going.
The money flow:
Bitcoin always goes first, when she hit the range highs the total 3 market cap was still at the range lows.
When she broke above into price discovery, the total 3 (majors) also rallied to the range high.
Medium cap and low cap Altcoins follow up last, and as we can see on the others chart (top 100 altcoins minus the top 10) they are still at the range lows.
So, where I slowly started to take some profit on Bitcoin and majors like Solana, I still have my positions on the Altcoins outside the top 10-20.
SIR ALTSZN?
Read tweet below 👇