Junayed

On my way to becoming one of the best traders in the world…

@nikitabier Bro a video tab

Every time we do a user survey. What would make X better for you? Normal Person: > Maybe a podcast feature? Guy who reposted 370 videos from TikTok using Scheduled Posts, has never opened the app, and has a bot writing replies: > *Foaming from mouth* > Gib…more…money….

@atensnut Did Alaska lawmakers just raise taxes on oil companies because they actually need the money or are they sabotaging the economy?

While American forces are engaged in Iran and oil prices surge, Alaska Senate Democrats pushed through a new tax on oil producers. This isn’t leadership—it’s economic sabotage at the worst possible moment. Thankfully, Gov. Dunleavy is holding the line with President Trump for pro-energy policies that actually strengthen America.

@Geiger_Capital Would Theodore Roosevelt get canceled if he ran today?

Teddy Roosevelt was much more of a "King" than Trump, both domestic and foreign… Almost every President that is regarded as "great" historically, would be called a far-right extremist if they were actually President today.

@jakebrowatzke What if you got liquidated... all that hard work and time wasted for nothing?

The first year I ever lost $1M was 2022. In fact I lost 90% of my net worth in 2022 after 20xing my portfolio the year prior by going all-in on margin into $TSLA. My peak before that ~90% drawdown was $1.6M in 2021, built from $20k I had saved up since age 14 and first put to work in 2019. Last year, I 10x'd my portfolio to nearly $10M, again leveraged all-in — this time in $LMND. As of now, I'm down -84% YTD from that new peak. From this crash point, I see the most opportunity in the stocks that have been hit the hardest despite AI being a massive tailwind for their businesses. Namely: $PATH (currently 178% of net liquidity), $KLAR (currently 121% of net liquidity), and $DUOL (currently 38% of net liquidity). $PATH is still my highest conviction pick, but it's also in the center of the tornado — new competitor headlines drop daily, and that could keep the fear narrative alive longer than I originally expected. Not to mention the real likelihood of market share losses over time, offset (I believe) by the rapidly expanding automation market size. That's why I've added two other AI beneficiaries that are more AI-adjacent and less likely to face direct new competition from AI itself — similar to how the AI first insurance player $LMND benefits from AI without being threatened by it. I still believe my original $PATH thesis is correct. But I now think the public market may feel more comfortable bidding up these "safer" adjacent winners first — the ones that don't have major competitor announcements dominating the news cycle every week. Obviously, I hope I'm wrong. Whichever of these three starts showing momentum first, my current plan is to margin into relentlessly until my 5-year expected annualized return for it drops below 30%, or until the other two start looking far more attractive on a relative valuation basis. Here's how I think about it: I want a rocket out of this mess, so I've booked three tickets instead of one. I'll hop on the first one that's fueled and ready. Once I'm off-planet, I'll be in a position to buy seats on the ships still grounded. If all three take off at once, great. The scenario I want to avoid is holding a ticket to the only one still sitting on the launchpad as the market recovers. My current weighting reflects which stock I think is most likely to see real, fundamental AI-driven momentum in the biggest way over the next 5 years — that's $PATH. But I'll be the first to admit that predicting the ebbs and flows of public sentiment in the near term is far from a science. Both $KLAR and $DUOL are growing faster today than UiPath, and $KLAR is trading at a roughly 50% discount on an EV/look-through earnings basis compared to even $PATH, which itself is dirt cheap at 6.6x EV/look-through earnings. All three are founder-led, which is a requirement for every investment I make. Looking ahead through the prism of my short history: after December 2022, it took a few years to fully recover and hit a new all-time high. As several have observed it will take a ~500% gain to break even again on the year from my current drawdown, but with as volatile as the market has been lately, I wouldn't be surprised to see a new ATH this year or next. That said, because I'm still >300% invested with leverage, I also wouldn't be surprised if my portfolio gets cut in half again before a recovery begins. If it hasn't come across yet — I don't mind volatility. Volatility and real losses are not the same thing. A stock swinging 50% while the underlying business compounds at 40%+ annually is not a loss; it's an opportunity. If the drawdown continues, there is no point where I stop leveraging into the market. When I see people selling into cash I laugh in sadness for them as the market actually looks more and more attractive the lower it moves, not less! In a continued drawdown the next few weeks would likely take out personal and business loans to load up further as I'm admittedly out of fresh personal capital, and at these valuations the deals would be too compelling not to take equally drastic action. This is my personal risk tolerance — not a recommendation — but it's how I've played the game since day one, and it's how I became a millionaire. Still being a millionaire after an 84% YTD drawdown is a pretty wild reality for a 30 year old who grew up as a poor missionary kid who's family lived on donations. I have a plan for making my strategy more conservative as certain thresholds are hit, but now is the time to go big. My dream is donating the most amount of money possible to the poor in the name of Christ Jesus over a 1,000 year period - something I think becomes possible for the first time with trusted AI agents that can be imbedded with missions, upkeep their own infrastructure, and outlive any human, and potentially any company or government. Even if I got completely zeroed out a dozen times, I would not give up on my gracious life calling to help Jesus "wake up my church" - which is even more fundamental and valuable than my personal desires to shrink world governments, feed the poor and fund the end times church. For what good would even a trillion dollars do for a Christian church that is lukewarm? In Revelation 3 Jesus rebukes the lukewarm church of Laodicea saying "I know your deeds, that you are neither cold nor hot". This spiritual state is described as nauseating to Christ, leading to the warning, "I am about to vomit you out of my mouth". Lukewarm faith represents complacency and a lack of true love for neighbors or God, replaced by a feeling of self-reliance. "You say, 'I am rich, and have become wealthy, and have no need of anything,' and you do not know that you are wretched, miserable, poor, blind, and naked." I believe this largely describes the Western church today, and even much of my own day to day life. We MUST listen to what the creator of our simulation warns us to do! "I advise you to buy from Me gold refined by fire so that you may become rich... and eye salve to apply to your eyes so that you may see. Those whom I love, I rebuke and discipline; therefore be zealous and repent. Behold, I stand at the door and knock; if anyone hears My voice and opens the door, I will come in and will dine with him, and he with Me. The one who overcomes, I will grant to him to sit with Me on My throne, as I also overcame and sat with My Father on His throne." Perhaps volatility in worldly wealth does not bother me because even a trillion dollars looks colorless and worthless compared to that promise from my savior to share the throne with my creator. Jesus showed his love for me first by visiting earth and being crucified for my sins so that I can now stand blameless before him in a white robe, despite being naked and wretched without his cleansing grace.

@Polymarket What possible experience or legal framework allows a 14-year-old to run for governor, and how does this “party” have any legitimate mechanism to get on the ballot?

JUST IN: High school freshman Dean Roy, 14, will appear on the ballot for Vermont governor under his self-created “Freedom and Unity Party.”

@zerohedge If building a vestable nuclear device is technically implausible, why present it as a credible threat?

Vance Claims Iran Could Make Nuclear Suicide Vest zerohedge.com/political/vanc…

@deedydas We are in bubble

What are VCs investing in right now? We classified >1000 Y Combinator startups from the last 3 years into subclusters to figure out.

@BRICSinfo Striking a university and calling it “precision”? How many more civilian sites before the world stops pretending this is war, not terror?

JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Iranian state media says US-Israeli strikes targeted a university in Tehran.

@sentdefender Not strategy, just escalation, more wounded soldiers, more damage, and no clear end in sight.

Ten U.S. servicemembers were wounded in the drone and missile strike, with two considered seriously wounded, according to the Wall Street Journal. A building on the base was struck in the previously reported attack, leading to the injuries.

@KobeissiLetter Expanding targets mid-crisis signals drift, not control. Is this strategy, or just escalation dressed up as strength?

PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST NOW ON THE IRAN SITUATION: "Cuba is next."

@BRICSinfo Freudian or not, it reveals how central control over Hormuz is to the strategy.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 President Trump says "they have to open up the Strait of Trump." "I mean the Strait of Hormuz…Sorry."

@Polymarket Rebranding policy as a platform won’t fix broken incentives. Calling it “OnlyFarms” doesn’t change the underlying economics farmers face.

JUST IN: White House officially launches OnlyFarms — a government policy platform for farmers.

@TouchlineX @Pablo_Gallego__ Talent means nothing if discipline isn’t there. At clubs like Real Madrid, lifestyle slips get punished fast. Do you back raw talent or strict professionalism?

🚨 𝗕𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗚: Raúl Asencio is going through a delicate period at Real Madrid. His absence from the squad is not solely due to a physical issue. It's because of his lifestyle. He is out of sync with the club's demands. — @Pablo_Gallego__

@zerohedge This isn’t “slow progress,” it’s controlled escalation. Every delay is paired with more troops, more pressure, more positioning. Are we heading toward negotiation, or just staging the next phase of war?

Top Overnight News Trump said that Iran asked him to extend the pause and in a certain sense, we've already won, while he added that Iran made a request to him through his people and had asked for seven days, but he gave 10 days because of Hormuz 'gift'. Iran was very thankful. Mediators said Iran hasn’t requested a 10-day pause on strikes on its energy plants and is yet to deliver a final response to a 15-point plan to end the war: WSJ. US is considering sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East: WSJ. Iran and Israel Keep Up Attacks After Trump Extends Deadline: BBG Iranian officials are interested in negotiations despite the announcement of their rejection of the US proposal, while mediators are pressuring Tehran to agree to a meeting with Washington in the coming days: Axios. "Things are progressing very slowly" in terms of negotiations between the US and Iran, as it stands, no meeting has been scheduled between senior officials: i24's Stein reports; Iran's IRGC Navy announced that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and any traffic in this strait will be severely dealt with; traffic of any ship "to and from" the ports of origin of the allies of the enemies is prohibited from any corridor. Iran Blocks Two Chinese Ships From Hormuz in Rare Move: WSJ U.S. and Israel Have Pounded—but Not Eliminated—Iran’s Missile Threat: WSJ US deploys uncrewed drone boats in conflict with Iran: Reuters Trump is weighing several options for dramatically escalating the war against Iran should his latest push for diplomacy fail: CNN. Senate Passes Homeland Security Deal After Airport Delays; the vote comes hours after Trump said that he signed an Emergency Order directing the homeland security secretary to pay Transportation Security Administration agents: Reuters. China Starts Trade Probes Against US Before Xi-Trump Summit: BBG Trump is scheduled to deliver remarks at Future Investment Initiative at 17:30EST on Friday and will participate in MAGA Inc meeting at 18:30EST on Saturday, while he will deliver remarks to farmers at 12:30EST on Sunday. Oaktree to Meet 8.5% Private Credit Fund Redemptions in Full: BBG Wall Street Says Stocks Are Too Cheap to Ignore Despite War: BBG BofA's weekly flow report noted USD 2.7bln into bonds, USD 35bln out of cash, USD 29bln out of stocks, USD 6.3bln out of gold, USD 0.5bln out of crypto.

@StockSavvyShay Let’s be honest, this is a power play disguised as safety. Expensive + restricted access just concentrates control in fewer hands. Would you rather have open chaos or closed dominance?

Anthropic is testing Claude Mythos which is a new early-access model described as a step above Opus and its most capable system yet. Anthropic is rolling it out cautiously taking a cautious because the model may carry meaningful cybersecurity risk and is expensive to run.

@zerohedge From Nvidia. Yesterday, I talked with Huang. Soon everyone will find out

SoftBank Secures Record $40 Billion Bridge Loan for OpenAI Stake Is it from... OpenAI?

@sentdefender Another “deterrence” buildup that somehow always edges closer to war. If Donald Trump is serious about escalation with Iran, let’s stop pretending this is defensive, it’s a calculated gamble with massive consequences.

The White House and the Pentagon are considering sending at least 10,000 additional combat troops to the Middle East in the coming days, significantly increasing the number of ground forces the United Stated has in the region as another signal that a major ground operation in Iran is being seriously prepared, a senior U.S. defense official confirmed to Axios. Defense official expects the decision to be made next week and said the troops will be from different combat units than the ones which have already been sent to the region, while more reinforcements, including several fighter jet squadrons and thousands of troops, are expected to arrive in the Middle East in the coming days and weeks, as President Trump continues to consider escalation against Iran.

@WatcherGuru Politicians ignored crypto for years, now they suddenly care when it threatens traditional finance.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Senator Elizabeth Warren says she has "questions for MrBeast" over his cryptocurrency plans following banking app acquisition.

@BRICSinfo We built systems that can’t survive conflict, then act surprised when they don’t.

JUST IN: 🇺🇳 International Atomic Energy Agency warns of "major radiological accident" risk if strikes near nuclear plants continue.

@unusual_whales $1.8 million sounds huge until you realize it’s basically pocket change spread across thousands of exploited workers. NYC officials love press releases more than actually fixing systemic wage theft.

NYC's Mamdani administration secures $1.8 million in restitution for fast food, retail workers, per CBS