Private Eye Capital

Some thoughts on 2Q25 Resi #REITs results & cap rates, per door, expected IRRs: privateeyecapital.com/2q25-resi-reit… $AVB $CPT $ESS $EQR $MAA $INVH $AMH $ELS $SUI $NXRT $CSR $BRT $UDR $VNQ $TLT

@BondKingJanusH1 It's just EV/homes owned so ~$279k/home at 25.60

@PrivateEyeCap Do you have a quick way to calculate what this number is at at today's stock price?

4Q19 Invitation Homes traded for $300-314k/home; essentially in-line w/ median US home price 4Q25 (today) $INVH trades for $298k/home v. median US home price $400k+ #SFR #REITs $AMH

@yenoms i'm still holding mine

@PrivateEyeCap $WSr holding up well in this storm.. do i trim to buy some beaten names and risk the pop??

According to the people of Twitter, there's an 85% chance Whitestone $WSR being acquired and most folks think it'll be done north of $17 seekingalpha.com/article/487984…

@ajobst the Grandstanding Liars Bill to Displace Working Families is not to be questioned

So, if (when, IMHO) BTR AND for-sale starts substantially decline (for known/easily predictable 1st and 2nd order effects) after this ROAD to housing act is passed, can we fire every Senator/Congressperson who voted FOR it? Please?

@yenoms With a 9.2% owner who knows the asset well having bid $15.20 fundamental downside is quite limited I think, making for a good r/r

@PrivateEyeCap Free money?! 😬

@RealAssetsValue overall, i think they've been selling the bottom quartile of their properties so even if those deals have been struck in the low 7s, to me that suggests the overall portfolio should go in the 6s

@PrivateEyeCap FWIW I do think management use some fairly aggressive assumptions around their disposition cap rates. Looking at acq & disp since 2024, my estimate for acq cap rates is pretty much inline but ~60 bps higher (so 7% not 6.5%) on dispositions... My est. not perfect of course.

Grabbed some more $WSR AH. IMO mgmt was wise to reject the lowball $15.20 bid. Sunbelt shopping centers (Austin/Dallas/Houston) are hot. I'll say this fetches $17.50-22 (6-7 cap). $BX $TPG $KIM $BRX $KRG $SITC

$CBRE 2H Cap Rate survey Cl A sunbelt retail $WSR

@yenoms I think it is D. I think these are the right assets in the right markets at a time when shopping centers are hot (many of the shopping center reits are near multiyear highs). But idk what the probability of a sale is so I didn't go ballz deep.

@PrivateEyeCap I went w/ c.. although d not out of the question. Also guessing 75% chance a deal gets done.. meaning.. if I’m right.. then the setup is rather attractive I also waited to enter this name.. but paying the 4% tax wasn’t too bad. X

What will Whitestone $WSR fetch?

With $WELL CEO Mitra (he likes accretive deals) taking over as Chair of $PSA coupled w/ historically wide imp cap rate spread (nearly 8 for $SHUR v. low 5s PSA) makes me think there is a good chance $PSA tries to buy the 65% it doesn't own of Shurgard. privateeyecapital.com/does-ps4-0-por…