HERE'S THE PICTURE: Leavitt dropped Trump's verdict on NATO in three words"They were tested, and they failed" and added that it was "quite sad that NATO turned their backs on the American people" after years of U.S. funding their defense. She also confirmed that U.S. WITHDRAWAL from NATO was "something the president has discussed" and would be on the table in his meeting with Secretary General Rutte.
MY PREDICTION:
Full withdrawal is unlikely in the near term CONGRESS PASSED A LAW in 2023 requiring two-thirds Senate approval for any president to pull out of NATO, and that THRESHOLD is almost impossible to clear in the current political environment.
But formal MEMBERSHIP isn't really the point. Trump has other levers he can hollow NATO out from within without ever technically leaving. If he signals the U.S. won't HONOR ARTICLE 5, the alliance's entire deterrent collapses, regardless of what's on paper.
The more likely outcome: TRUMP uses the Iran war as leverage to force a major restructuring demanding EUROPEANS dramatically increase defense spending, cede more operational control to WASHINGTON, and fall in line on future U.S. military actions or risk losing the American security UMBRELLA ENTIRELY.
The WSJ reported he's already weighing PULLING U.S. troops out of countries he deemed unhelpful during the Iran conflict that's the real threat MECHANISM.
BOTTOM LINE: NATO survives on paper, but emerges FUNDAMENTALLY weakened and more subordinate to U.S. UNILATERALISM. Europe accelerates its push for strategic autonomy out of NECESSITY, not choice.
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