Spaxter

Well done! 👏 Good start. Keep building!

Game plan 2026: 1. Scale out of crypto in the coming months 2. Rotate into a bottoming Dubai property market Building tracking tools right now to monitor price shifts and spot the dip. Very curious how next week’s ready apartment data prints.

JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are now offering hedge funds ways to short the $1.8 trillion private credit market. They've assembled baskets of companies with exposure, alt managers, BDCs, and lenders tied to private credit. This isn't speculation. These are structured products designed to bet against an entire sector. Private credit defaults hit a record 9.2% in late 2025. Blackstone's $82 billion flagship credit fund saw $6.5 billion in redemption requests in Q1. BlackRock had to cap withdrawals after requests hit 9.3% of its HPS fund. Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater are also gating redemptions. JPMorgan already started marking down software-related loans in private credit portfolios. When the banks that lend to these funds start cutting the value of the collateral, it forces deleveraging at the worst possible time. US banks have lent nearly $300 billion to private credit providers. The exposure is not contained. Goldman's own data shows hedge funds are "aggressively shorting" financial stocks, the most-sold sector of the year. Financials are down 11% on the S&P. The same banks that helped build the private credit boom are now building the tools to bet against it. If that sounds familiar, it should.

If $BTC has bottomed, the current structure mirrors the 2019 and 2022 bottoms remarkably well. The same pivot point sequences have played out (with one exception: the second red dot in 2022). We are seeing identical reactions at range highs, rejection followed by a move back into the Value Area to test POC and VAL. Historically, this marked the bottom. From here, we grinded up through POC and VAH in a choppy move before the breakout.

NEW - South-east Asian nations are telling citizens to work from home, encouraging carpooling or cycling, implementing four-day weeks and promising increased spending on energy subsidies in an effort to cut oil use — FT

UPDATE: "Dubai property market is crashing." --- Cool story. Here's the data: 🏗️ Active supply: 39'183 listings, and falling since the Iran war started. 📉 Downtown -1.58% · Marina -0.78% · Palm -0.85% · Burj Khalifa -2.91%. 80 price cuts out of 20'000+ listings triggered a crash narrative. That's 0.4%. Lol. Pro tip: If someone sells you a developer stock chart as a "Dubai price index", that's not analysis. That's a trap. Facts don't care about your engagement bait🎯

UPDATE: Dubai property listings actually declining during the conflict. --> No panic selling so far, sellers pulling back, not dumping.

UPDATE: "Dubai property market is crashing." --- Cool story. Here's the data: 🏗️ Active supply: 39'183 listings, and falling since the Iran war started. 📉 Downtown -1.58% · Marina -0.78% · Palm -0.85% · Burj Khalifa -2.91%. 80 price cuts out of 20'000+ listings triggered a crash narrative. That's 0.4%. Lol. Pro tip: If someone sells you a developer stock chart as a "Dubai price index", that's not analysis. That's a trap. Facts don't care about your engagement bait🎯

UPDATE: "Dubai property market is crashing." --- Cool story. Here's the data: 🏗️ Active supply: 39'183 listings, and falling since the Iran war started. 📉 Downtown -1.58% · Marina -0.78% · Palm -0.85% · Burj Khalifa -2.91%. 80 price cuts out of 20'000+ listings triggered a crash narrative. That's 0.4%. Lol. Pro tip: If someone sells you a developer stock chart as a "Dubai price index", that's not analysis. That's a trap. Facts don't care about your engagement bait🎯