Splendide Mendax

This will be my last $BTC swing short of the cycle. Either I get stopped out, or I hold it all the way down to my target. I’m betting that the cycle timing hasn’t shifted this dramatically. Will I be wrong? Lets see. 🎲

The deal was coming and it was screaming clear to me. This opens the door for lower rates (new fed governor + oil down), new tops in equity (lower rates, war risk eliminated, m2 expanding), bitcoin bull run to begin (reversal in btc/gold ratio, m2 expanding, Stanley ETF, Saylor, Clarity act, short liquidations)

JUST IN: Google DeepMind hires a philosopher as it prepares for machine consciousness.

This is the best single number to evaluate MSTR.

This is the best single number to evaluate MSTR.

Cypherpunk Jameson Lopp and other Bitcoin developers propose BIP-361 to freeze quantum vulnerable wallets. This could lock dormant BTC like Satoshi Nakamoto’s 1.1M coins, now worth $74B, before quantum computers can steal them.

Whales accumulated 270,000 $BTC in 30 days, the largest buying spree since 2013. Exchange reserves are at their lowest since December 2017. The supply to meet new demand is shrinking 🤔

Clear the air My view on $MSTR I own BTC via $IBIT since 69420 At a small allocation of my wealth. I prefer gold I have been bearish MNAV of $MSTR since 11/20/2024. The MNAV has fallen massively and now rests at 1.09. That is NOT ridiculously rich at all. However the company is pursuing a strategy which will likely keep pressure on MNAV going forward. That pressure is offering $STRC at a decent size discount to fair value. By selling STRC at par particularly like today when it is full to the brim with dividends the company is selling this security at a 1-3% discount to fair value. Honestly that's not a bad thing for the company to do given the modest discount to fair value and the high proceeds they are taking in. BUT it does harm the common shareholders in two ways. 1. The discount itself is paid by the common shareholders to the preferred holders and 2. The preferred dividend (given that BTC/the companies asset pays no yield) represents forward issuance or forward BTC sales which are bad for the company's shareholders You may notice I've repeatedly said that the company is selling STRC at a discount. That explicitly means that the investor in STRC is getting to buy something cheap!!!! As an investor you have to like STRC. It's cheap! I am not a bear on STRC. I simply don't like it vs what it does to the common shareholders. My view on STRC is it is highly likely to generate pretty nice returns if BTC doesn't get crushed. Its risk is simple. BTC gets crushed and issuance liquidity for MSTR in all its forms falls and BTC sales become necessary to pay dividends. Fwiw that seems well prepared for given the fiat cash reserves the company has built up. So STRC is pretty sweet as a thing with probably 200bp per year of excess dividends vs fair with a substantial but unlikely left tail risk. BUT it's not good for shareholder MNAV Let's jump into MNAV dynamics. 1.09X is not that interesting as a short AT ALL. As long as the company has access to preferreds issaunce even at this 1-3% discount it can avoid issuing common shares or manage to issue just a bit. There are literally NO arbs short MSTR long BTC today at current prices and no downward pressure likely from new arbs going short. Why would they at 1.09? Could frustrated BTC investors with long equity positions in US equities (NDX) also sell their long MSTR such that it would go to an MNAV discount ? Sure. But with BTC anywhere within 40,000 of current spot the company has infinite flexibility to manage its issuance such that it won't trade at a sizable MNAV discount for much time. For instance let's say it traded at a .9MNAV while STRC traded at par. That would be the best arb of all time. Saylor could sell STRC and buy $MSTR back Basically with BTC doing fine my picture of the company is a slow convergence to MNAV of 1.0 and ongoing STRC chilling at par. The elephant in the room is the true believers in the common shares who still truly believe that the MNAV can massively expand back to its former glory or 2+. That time has past. Saylor will sell infinite shares at 1.5 if he has the ability to. And there is essentially infinite capital to do the short MSTR long BTC arb at levels like that. The MNAV expansion is a delusion built on meme stock experience where "the faithful" can stick it to "the man". STRC and the growing dividend expense makes the arb even more attractive than ever. Anyway that's where I stand.