Windward

Qatar has confirmed a full halt to gas production at Ras Laffan, the world’s largest LNG export hub, following extensive damage from an Iranian strike. As of March 19, 11:34 GMT:  • No LNG/LPG vessels transmitting AIS.  • Only local service vessels active.  • 3 LNG carriers en route holding at sea. Urea prices are already up 35% in days and 60% year-on-year. Monitoring closely.

Hormuz may look empty. But Windward Remote Sensing Intelligence shows 8 large vessels inside the Strait with no AIS. High-capacity vessels moving without visibility. Read the brief: okt.to/SkJwxV

Away from the Gulf, a different maritime pattern is unfolding. Sea Horse has been signaling "not under command" for weeks. But AIS patterns suggest it spoofed its location and likely delivered ~190K barrels of Russian gasoil to Cuba. Distress signal or deception? Get the full story: okt.to/W5DXA3

Port exceptions are migrating to new hubs as carriers bypass primary transit points amid regional volatility. Windward data highlights the latest pressure. Inside the Gulf: • Khalifa Port (UAE): 15 transshipment rollovers (+1400% DoD, +2525% vs. 7D); 8 transshipment delays (+700% DoD). • Jubail (KSA): 12 transshipment rollovers (new spike from 0 cases yesterday). Outside the Gulf: • Salalah (Oman): 69 transshipment delays (+263% DoD, +82% vs. 7D); 11 port-of-loading late departures (+1000% DoD). • Karachi (Pakistan): 5 port-of-loading rollovers (-28% DoD, +288% vs. 7D); 2 transshipment delays (new spike from 0).

Something new in Hormuz. Bulk carriers are exiting the Gulf via Iranian territorial waters, hugging the coastline instead of standard lanes. Windward tracked 5 vessels in 48 hours. With traffic still ~97% below normal, this points to selective access. Full breakdown: okt.to/xMU7nE

Saudi Arabia pivots to the Red Sea with 27 VLCCs sailing for Yanbu at $460k/day. With 46% of the fleet owned by Bahri and 32% by Cosco, this points to securing the supply to Asia. Watch our latest briefing as @Michellewb_ discusses how oil markets are recalibrating: okt.to/yTGVzO

Even as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz drops, Iranian oil continues to move. @CNN features Windward intelligence showing VLCCs operating dark or broadcasting deceptive locations near Kharg Island, enabling exports to continue under disruption. okt.to/9XRDEB

Using SAR imagery, Windward Remote Sensing Intelligence identified a sanctioned tanker operating in the Strait of Hormuz, despite no AIS transmission since March 13. The vessel is moving into the Gulf, consistent with a ballast voyage toward an Iranian terminal and operating under a fraudulent flag. This shows how multi-source intelligence exposes activity that would otherwise remain hidden.

Latest maritime intelligence shows 90% of targeted vessels are cargo ships. 8 bulk carriers, 6 tankers, and 4 container vessels have been hit so far, with no clear pattern by flag. In total, 20 incidents have been recorded across key Gulf shipping zones, reinforcing broad exposure across commercial traffic. Get the full breakdown: okt.to/UztBnf

Regional shipping flows continue to recalibrate as security-driven diversions shift terminal bottlenecks. Windward data highlights the latest developments. Inside the Gulf: • Umm Qasr (Iraq): 2 transshipment delays (from 0 cases yesterday). Outside the Gulf: • Karachi (Pakistan): 7 port-of-loading rollovers (+1125% vs. weekly average) and 2 late departures. • Salalah (Oman): Exception rates eased, with transshipment rollovers and delays both down >50% from yesterday.

A new pattern is emerging in the Strait of Hormuz. Bulk carriers are rerouting through Iranian territorial waters to exit the Gulf, bypassing standard lanes. Windward tracked at least five vessels in 48 hours, most after calling at Imam Khomeini port in Iran. See what’s happening: okt.to/K0cdGI

Since the start of the war, Windward has tracked 20 maritime security incidents across the Gulf. • 90% targeted cargo vessels. • 45% in the Northern Arabian Gulf. • 30% in the Strait of Hormuz. Attacks aren’t targeting flags. They’re hitting high-density commercial shipping lanes. Get the full report: okt.to/kCmRzD

Recorded maritime traffic remains volatile as the War in the Gulf continues. 📍 Strait of Hormuz: Extreme lows continue (3 transits). Notable: VLCC NORA outbound with 2.01M bbl crude for China after loading at Kharg on Mar 7. 📍 Bab el-Mandeb: Sharp 52% drop in recorded crossings, falling to just 10 recorded crossings. 📍 Suez: Volume surged 69% to 39 transits. 📍 Cape of Good Hope: Steady at 82 transits, remaining the primary security bypass.

Regional hubs continue to manage volatile cargo flows as security diversions alter established shipping rotations. Windward data highlights the latest developments. Inside the Gulf: • Jebel Ali (UAE): 4 transshipment rollovers (+100% from previous day, -32% vs weekly trend) and 6 transshipment delays (+200% from previous day, -34% vs weekly trend). Outside the Gulf: • Salalah (Oman): 72 transshipment delays (+100% from previous day, +168% vs weekly trend) and 26 transshipment rollovers (+19% from previous day, +18% vs weekly trend). • Karachi (Pakistan): 8 transshipment rollovers (+33% from previous day, +300% vs weekly trend).

The Hormuz crisis is reshaping global energy flows, maritime risk, and shipping routes. Watch the on-demand briefing with Pamela Munger (@Vortexa), @Michellewb_, and Ariel Guzman (Windward) on what the data shows across cargo movements, insurance conditions, and shadow fleet activity. okt.to/VmijKr

Hormuz traffic dropped to zero on March 14. But Iran’s Kharg Island export terminal is still active. Satellite intelligence shows 6 VLCCs at the terminal, with 2 sanctioned tankers departing since March 11 carrying ~2.68M barrels. Meanwhile ~400 vessels wait in the Gulf of Oman as rerouting around Africa rises. Get the full report: okt.to/KERpva

GPS jamming is distorting AIS signals across the Gulf. This example shows how multi-source intelligence restores the real picture. AIS heat maps reveal injection and denial zones, while SAR imagery shows where vessels actually are. When signals are manipulated, correlating data sources reveals the ground truth, separating what’s real from what’s false.

Following U.S. airstrikes, oil exports appear to be continuing at Kharg Island. • Strikes targeted military, not oil, facilities. • 2.68M barrels departed since Mar 11 (sanctioned SERENA, ARK III). • SAR imagery today shows 10 tankers (7 VLCC, 3 Suezmax). • 3 vessels confirmed loading now.

Security-driven diversions are shifting bottlenecks as regional hubs absorb redirected cargo flows. Windward data highlights the latest pressure. Inside the Gulf: • Hamad (Qatar): 2 transshipment rollovers (up from 0 yesterday). • Umm al Quwain (UAE): 2 transshipment delays (+900% vs. 7-day avg). Outside the Gulf: • Karachi (Pakistan): 6 transshipment rollovers (+320% vs. weekly trend). • Salalah (Oman): 34 transshipment rollovers (+76% vs. weekly trend). • Sohar (Oman): 3 transshipment delays (+162% vs. 7-day avg).

The U.S. Treasury issued OFAC General License 134, temporarily allowing Russian oil already at sea to be delivered. Impacting ~377 tankers and 215M barrels, the move effectively suspends G7 price caps to stabilize markets following the Strait of Hormuz closure. While 44% of these vessels are already sanctioned, and a further 50% are classified as high risk by Windward, the license authorizes necessary services to complete deliveries to global buyers.  More details in our weekly maritime intelligence report: okt.to/cwdvTH