Daniel

KILL THE KILL SWITCH!

@ALadyNamedKatie Are you actually looking for a serious relationship on here, Kate? or just bored…?

Yeah I’m a problem. But I could be YOUR problem.

Feelin bullish on $OWL

Grok’s take on $owl earnings report this morning.. Based on Blue Owl Capital (NYSE: OWL)’s Q1 2026 earnings (released this morning, April 30), I think the fair value per share is in the $12–15 range right now—implying 35–70% upside from yesterday’s close of $8.88 (with early trading already showing a positive reaction around +5% in pre/extended hours).6157 Here’s my step-by-step reasoning from the actual results (pulled from the earnings deck): •AUM hit $314.9 billion (+15% YoY), with Fee-Paying AUM (FPAUM) at $188.4 billion (+8% YoY). This shows continued scale despite private credit redemption noise in the sector.52 •Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) came in at $393.6 million (+14% YoY), with FRE revenues of $699.9 million (+13% YoY). FRE/share was $0.25 (vs. $0.22 last year). Margins held strong at 58.4%. This is the key metric for asset managers like Blue Owl, and the growth was solid.52 •Distributable Earnings (DE) were $292.5 million (+11% YoY), or $0.19 per adjusted share (up from $0.17). They also declared the usual $0.23 quarterly dividend (annualized $0.92, yielding ~10%+ at current levels).52 •GAAP net income was $15.5 million ($0.02/share), better than last year, with total revenues up 10% YoY.52 •Capital raising was robust: $11 billion in new commitments in the quarter alone (part of $56+ billion LTM), with strong activity in Credit and Real Assets. Deployment and performance across platforms also looked healthy.52 Valuation context: At ~$8.88–9.40, the stock is trading at roughly 9x annualized FRE (or ~9x current run-rate on the $1.57 billion LTM FRE). For a scaled alternative asset manager with permanent capital growth, 14%+ FRE growth, and durable platforms (Credit, Real Assets, GP Strategic Capital), that multiple looks cheap. Peers in the space often command 12–20x FRE when growth is visible and redemptions are contained. Analyst consensus price targets pre-earnings hovered around $13–17 (with some recent cuts due to sector fears), which aligns with my range.16 The private credit redemption headlines earlier this year clearly weighed on the stock (it’s down sharply from 2025 highs), but these results demonstrate resilience: FPAUM and FRE still grew, capital raising stayed strong, and the durable/permanent capital base (up 15%) acted as a buffer. The market landscape favoring “patient capital” (per the co-CEOs) plays right into Blue Owl’s strengths.52 Risks to watch: Ongoing macro pressure on private credit outflows, any slowdown in fundraising/deployment, or broader alt-asset sentiment. But the numbers show Blue Owl is executing well through the noise. Bottom line: These are growth-oriented results with stable/high margins and a juicy dividend. The stock is undervalued on the key FRE/DE metrics relative to its scale and trajectory. I’d view $12 as a near-term fair value floor (conservative re-rating) and $14–15 as more realistic if sentiment improves post-earnings call and the market rewards the growth. Not financial advice—always do your own diligence—but the earnings reinforce why Blue Owl has long-term appeal as a leading alternative asset manager.

Good thing I have @Stocktwits to keep me updated on important stock info since @RobinhoodApp does NOT.

The Trump family turned the US presidency into a revenue stream. Here is exactly how they did it. In the first half of 2025 Reuters found Trump Organization income jumped from $51 million to $864 million. Over 90% came from crypto ventures launched after the election. Here’s the model: Step 1: Win the election. Step 2: Launch financial products that only have value because you are president. TRUMP memecoin launched 3 days before inauguration. Market cap hit $14.5 billion in 24 hours. The coin has no utility. Its value is entirely dependent on Trump being president. The family controls 80% of the total supply. Reuters calculated $336 million in family revenue from it in H1 2025. Step 3: Use your presidency to make crypto regulation friendly, then profit from crypto. Trump signed an executive order making crypto a national priority within days of taking office. His administration reversed SEC enforcement policies that were targeting the exact type of products his family was selling. World Liberty Financial raised $550 million from global investors. 75% of net token sale proceeds go directly to the Trump family. The family cashed out $1.2 billion in real dollars in 16 months. Step 4: Sell access. World Liberty Financial quietly offered “Super Nodes”, a tier giving investors “guaranteed direct access to the WLFI team” for $5 million. Justin Sun, a Chinese-born crypto billionaire facing SEC fraud charges, invested $75 million into WLFI. His charges were quietly dropped after Trump took office. Step 5: Keep launching products while in office. USD1 stablecoin, backed by US Treasuries, now at $4.7 billion market cap. American Bitcoin mining company, Eric Trump and Don Jr. listed on Nasdaq. Trump Mobile: $499 gold phone, $47.45/month “47 Plan.” Trump Watches. Trump Sneakers. Trump Bibles. Trump NFTs. Every product benefits from presidential attention. Every policy decision that touches crypto, finance or tech can move the value of something the family owns. The White House became a marketing platform. The presidency became a distribution channel. If you want to know where I’m deploying capital next, all you have to do is turn on notifications and pay close attention. Many people will regret not following me sooner, trust me.

@Spamfromk Candy Crush

Ok guys, as a girl with ZERO gaming experience, can you recommend one game I should start with?? 😭

World of Statistics shared this so it must be important.

@CNN I better hurry up and renew mine before these hit.

The US will soon begin issuing passports featuring an image of President Donald Trump inside, a State Department official said. cnn.it/49hAT58

February 5, 2025. Trump announces he is going to build a new ballroom at the WH and pay for it with his own money: “It’s going to cost nothing. I will spend the whole thing myself.”

Lindsey Graham says he will force Americans to pay for the new White House ballroom by introducing a bill that would authorize $400 million in U.S. taxpayer money. He says that underneath the ballroom there will be a lot of “military stuff.” “The sooner we get the ballroom built, the better it is for the country.”

@lunarfq Hi

IF YOU ARE STILL UNDER 5K FOLLOWERS Say hi Let’s follow you 🙋‍♀️

The President is using his war on Iran and last night’s WHCD shooting as excuses to give up your rights so that Congress just passes a clean extension of FISA 702. It’s ridiculous and absurd that any President who has sworn an oath to uphold the constitution would ever tell Americans to give up your rights so the government has the ability to spy on you, especially a government that has already done it to not only him, but to hundreds of thousands of Americans. And what’s even more ridiculous is that Congress can easily re-authorize FISA 702 with warrant requirements to protect American citizens rights and still be able to go after terrorist. The questions you should be asking is why is this so hard for them and why would the President of the United States demand a clean re-authorization of FISA 702 without warrant requirements???

Desidero esprimere la mia piena solidarietà e più sincera vicinanza al Presidente Trump, alla First Lady Melania, al Vice Presidente Vance e a tutti i presenti per quanto accaduto alla cena dei Corrispondenti della Casa Bianca di ieri sera. Nessun odio politico può trovare spazio nelle nostre democrazie. Non permetteremo al fanatismo di avvelenare i luoghi del libero dibattito e dell'informazione. La difesa della civiltà del confronto deve restare l'argine invalicabile contro ogni deriva intollerante, a tutela dei valori che fondano le nostre Nazioni.

@cryptorover Or maybe Trump is no longer the old Trump.

UNREAL: 🇺🇸 Donald Trump: “Meloni is no longer the old Meloni. I was shocked by that. I thought she was a brave person, but I was wrong.” 🇮🇹 Meloni: “Italy does not care about what Donald Trump said.” The US is picking fights with Italy, Britain & Spain. NATO is falling apart, right before our eyes.

Call Deborah. The caterer? Tell her not to open the cavier.

@JosephFordCotto The future of MAGA is bleak.

Mark Levin is the future of MAGA. Not Tucker Carlson.

All peace talks canceled until Monday!

@I_amMukhtar Why is the part where he reads Isaiah 12 and talks about it cut out?

Piers Morgan asked Russell Brand which passages were relevant to him when he brought a Bible into court.