@jayparsons If I did my math right, you are saying that there were 378K apartment unit starts last year, is that a correct interpretation? Is there any way to track total apartment starts over the last few years?
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Puneesh Chaudhry
974 posts
Puneesh Chaudhry
@puneesh
Angel Investor Launchpad Venture Group. Former CEO of successful Angel/VC backed company. Space Enthusiast.
MA Joined Nisan 2009
108 Following182 Followers
For the first time since 2019, no single apartment developer started 8k+ units last year, according to the newly released NMHC Top 25 developers list.
Greystar still ranked No. 1 with 7.2k units, amounting to 1.9% of all U.S. apartment starts -- reflecting the deep fragmentation of apartment development. Unlike single-family homebuilding, apartment construction is still dominated by smaller, local groups.
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@Rory_Johnston @adamscochran Does the higher price bring on supply which may have been made dormant at $60 WTI? Or, turning on dormant supply is not that responsive, speed wise?
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@adamscochran Correct—this doesn’t create any new supply, just shuffles around the remaining supply to those willing to pay the most for the barrels.
US will aggressively draw down crude and product stocks and prices will spike, just like the rest of the world should this crisis persist.
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Oh... my God.
My first tweet to be stolen by the President of the United States 😅
Rory Johnston@Rory_Johnston
Very cool seeing the wave of empty tankers heading to the US to pick up some desperately needed crude for Hormuz-starved markets. All the tankers on the map below are empty VLCCs (~2 million barrel capacity each) currently heading for the US Gulf Coast.
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@Fightme120 @LukeGromen So, essentially you are saying that other than Iran no other country has the intestinal fortitude for a war? In other words everyone else is “soft”? Possibly… If the outcome of only Iran extracting a toll happens, then you’d be right about the “soft” claim. Let’s see.
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@puneesh @LukeGromen because UAE is a bigger exporter than Iran, richer than Iran in their cities.
Iran is already broke, remembered the US & Israel hit 10,000 targets including civillian infastructure?
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They’ll hold a meeting, realize they can’t open it if the US couldn’t, & then just agree to pay Iran in CNY…
…and the easiest/only way to secure CNY is by buying physical gold in USD and selling that gold to China in CNY.
People selling gold today are likely to be sorry.
Joumanna Nasr Bercetche@JoumannaTV
Strait of Hormuz global re-opening updates 🔹G7 countries and GCC countries will hold a meeting next week to discuss the situation in the Strait of Hormuz per France's Foreign Ministry spokesman 🔹The UK chaired a virtual meeting of around 35 nations to discuss restoring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, initially focusing on diplomatic efforts but potentially considering economic sanctions and military options once the current conflict ends. UK foreign secretary Yvette Cooper said the focus would be on de-mining or reassurance 🔹 French President Emmanuel Macron said it would be “unrealistic” to try to reopen the Strait of Hormuz through military means 🔹 The UAE invoked Chapter 7 at UN and called on the Security Council to authorize a range of measures, including force, to reopen the Strait 🔹 UN’s Guterres emphasised that “freedom of navigation must be upheld” and that they were “sending envoy to the region for freedom of navigation”
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The toll is a trap for Iran. Once the US stops the bombing, if Iran continues to charge a toll, it’ll be a violation of the UN Charter, and it will give a reason to all these countries to go after Iran in a “legal” way.
Speaking of Russia, their foreign Ministry spokesperson yesterday said that all countries that border the strait should control the strait.
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President saying we're causing massive pain against people with a high pain tolerance while U.S. is waging war around market hours isn't confidence inspiring.
Also, why won't countries just pay the toll in RMB to Iran and get on with life?
I get it, gulf states won't like it. But let's be real, if U.S. won't take Hormuz, it isn't reasonable to assume anyone else can, or will try to take it from Iran.
Especially with Russia and China providing support. Plus, I would think paying the toll in RMB ensures China now has a vested interest in this new arrangement continuing.
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@acaseofthegolf1 I thought you need a ride home after the procedure, because of the sedation. Typically that would be your spouse, just something to consider…
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I don’t have a lot of marriage advice.
But our main goal is to keep things as spicy as possible.
Year 15 and we are still holding true to that.
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@biancoresearch A key point is money supply growth. In 2022, the govt caused inflation because they flooded the system with money during a supply shock. If they simply lower interest rates to boost private sector lending and not flood the money supply with govt stimulus, wouldn't that work?
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3/4
That is only half the equation. A supply shock hurts growth, but it also raises inflation, so the real question is which side dominates.
In 2022, inflation rose more than real growth fell: the blue CPI line and arrow moved sharply higher while the green real-GDP bars and arrow moved modestly lower. The bottom panel shows the Fed’s answer: hikes, not cuts, as the federal funds rate moved from near zero in early 2022 to above 4% by year-end 2022.
Why? When inflation rises faster than growth falls, nominal growth (real GDP plus inflation) rises. If today’s oil shock does the same thing as 2022, the correct takeaway is not automatic cuts. It is possible that the Fed may have to stand pat or even consider hiking.
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1/4
Yesterday I posted the thread below arguing that the market is repricing an inflation shock, not a recession scare.
10-year yields are rising, bond volatility is exploding, inflation expectations are jumping, and Fed pricing has swung from cuts toward hikes.
Follow up 🧵
Jim Bianco@biancoresearch
1/6 The 10-year yield was up 13 bps yesterday, closing at 4.38%, the highest level since late July The bond market's view changed in the last few days. 🧵
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Love your analysis, but you’re veering towards stating that the US admin is so clueless that they didn’t know about the strait. I wish you’d be a bit more balanced in stating that the control of the Strait is the end game, and it needs to be played out. You are sounding like the game is over, not sure if that’s what you’re going for.
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Every US policymaker & investor we see talks about "tactics": How many Iranian ships we've sunk, how many launchers we've destroyed....
...while ignoring what keeping Hormuz closed will do to global "logistics", even as Iran openly admits "logistics" is their whole strategy:
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@LukeGromen One tanker can carry 2-3 millions of barrels, so do we know if we’re simply talking about a few tankers, or is it more? Everyone understands that the strait is closed, and that a few Iran friendly tankers have passed, but this headline feels like clickbait
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I’m afraid if the Fed uses the one time price increase to guide their monetary policy, it’s no longer an academic distinction. The incoming Fed chair has talked about using the money supply increase as a key factor to guide interest rates, and not just rely on the CPI/PCE numbers, I believe.
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@puneesh it's an academic debate that belongs on in-depth policy panels // podcasts (such as mine!) but not at all relevant to prices going up for Americans.
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WSJ Editorial Board dismissing odds that Iran War would spike inflation...
Very short-sighted. By far energy is the most volatile component of the CPI
wsj.com/opinion/oil-pr…
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Love your work, but you’re both right and wrong on this one. You’re right that a temporary price increase still feels like inflation to the average person, but the reason it should not be labeled inflation is because the Fed’s tools to control inflation, i.e., higher interest rates won’t be helpful, might even make things worse. Those tools are only useful to control Money supply expansion, not temporary price increases. I know famous last words: transitory inflation 😃
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The point that "inflation" isn't technically a temporary rise in price level but a sustained high rate of change of prices is an academic one and irrelevant.
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@LukeGromen Charlotte has had a very large wave of new supply over the past few years, which has kept rents flat to negative for the last 12+months. This particular building could be doing a refi or exit. I have the actual number of deliveries and absorption somewhere, if that will help.
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Corporate-owned apartments in a major SE US city are sending emails to existing tenants offering to hold rent flat for the next 12 months IF they renew their lease within 24 hrs. Rents in recent years had been rising 7-9%.
Rental market must have turned down notably & quickly.
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Bitcoin thesis is different, related to USD debasement. Time will tell if it’ll come true. I’m a believer, but belief has been shaken a bit.
Tech service providers are facing existential threats from AI. Again, time will tell, but the AI coding driven productivity is real, I tend to lean towards PE multiple compression for SW type companies.
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Amazing JP Morgan.
Feels stocks can fall sharply with low growth even with cash but at 120,000 $ felt Bitcoin with zero growth and zero cash was a great investment. Amazing truly.
Ankit Chaudhary@entrepreneur987
JPMorgan warns that if 2-3% growth becomes the new normal, TCS could fall another 22%, Infosys 10%, and HCL 9%. Zero growth could mean a 30% downside
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@jayparsons Since most private market apartment deals are structured as LLCs, which offer a range of favorable tax treatments, could that explain the spread?
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Apartment REIT stocks are trading at implied cap rates in the 6s, according to BofA's Jana Galan.
Meanwhile, REIT-quality apartments in the private market are trading at cap rates ranging from mid-4s to low 5s.
The Rent Roll with Jay Parsons@RentRollPodcast
Why are apartment REIT stocks trading at prices well below the value of the apartment properties they own (net asset value)? Bank of America's Jana Galan says: "REITs are equities, and investors want to see growth." That growth hasn't been there, largely due to the massive wave of supply still working through lease-up.
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@jayparsons Great summary! Thanks for doing it. I always enjoy reading your posts. Quick question: any grade to the Miami and surrounding market?
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As always, this is NOT investment advice of any sort. Just 15 things I found interesting from Camden's Q4 2025 earnings call.
For an ongoing "thread of threads" of other apartment and SFR REIT call recaps, here you go:
x.com/jayparsons/sta…
Jay Parsons@jayparsons
Here's a running thread recapping Q4 2025 earnings call highlights for the apartment and SFR REITs. Will be adding to this as I get to them. 🧵
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Camden (apartment REIT with 59k units in Sun Belt, SoCal, DC) had earnings call recently. Some good color as always. Highlights:
1) Uncertainty remained the theme, but Camden is banking on Sun Belt outperforming again as supply pressures drop from record peaks to below-average.
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While I agree that commercial banks would need to offset any balance sheet reduction, I don’t know why you say that they are the same thing. Perhaps from a liquidity perspective sure, but in terms of Fed’s ability to influence long end of the curve, a smaller balance sheet is critical, no? Remember that Bessent said 3-3-3, one of which is 10-yr at 3%. What odds do you place on that with Warsh’s nomination?
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Just a day back #Silver uses were Semiconductor, Chip , Industrial and what not.
After this crash people realised it has been only used in Kaju Katli 😜
WA Fwd
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Bill Belichick doesn’t need the Hall of Fame, the Hall of Fame needs Bill Belichick.
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@jayparsons Jay - is it your understanding that the administration only plans to bar institutions from owning standalone houses, but will exempt a community of standalone homes that are purpose-built for renting, aka, BTR?
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Click bait headline but some very simple truth behind it: To meet growing demand from families wanting a single-family home, capital will likely shift to build-to-rent.
Why do headlines have to spin these things to sound sinister?
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