Jake Browatzke 🚀@jakebrowatzke
The first year I ever lost $1M was 2022. In fact I lost 90% of my net worth in 2022 after 20xing my portfolio the year prior by going all-in on margin into $TSLA.
My peak before that ~90% drawdown was $1.6M in 2021, built from $20k I had saved up since age 14 and first put to work in 2019. Last year, I 10x'd my portfolio to nearly $10M, again leveraged all-in — this time in $LMND. As of now, I'm down -84% YTD from that new peak.
From this crash point, I see the most opportunity in the stocks that have been hit the hardest despite AI being a massive tailwind for their businesses. Namely: $PATH (currently 178% of net liquidity), $KLAR (currently 121% of net liquidity), and $DUOL (currently 38% of net liquidity).
$PATH is still my highest conviction pick, but it's also in the center of the tornado — new competitor headlines drop daily, and that could keep the fear narrative alive longer than I originally expected. Not to mention the real likelihood of market share losses over time, offset (I believe) by the rapidly expanding automation market size. That's why I've added two other AI beneficiaries that are more AI-adjacent and less likely to face direct new competition from AI itself — similar to how the AI first insurance player $LMND benefits from AI without being threatened by it.
I still believe my original $PATH thesis is correct. But I now think the public market may feel more comfortable bidding up these "safer" adjacent winners first — the ones that don't have major competitor announcements dominating the news cycle every week. Obviously, I hope I'm wrong.
Whichever of these three starts showing momentum first, my current plan is to margin into relentlessly until my 5-year expected annualized return for it drops below 30%, or until the other two start looking far more attractive on a relative valuation basis.
Here's how I think about it: I want a rocket out of this mess, so I've booked three tickets instead of one. I'll hop on the first one that's fueled and ready. Once I'm off-planet, I'll be in a position to buy seats on the ships still grounded. If all three take off at once, great. The scenario I want to avoid is holding a ticket to the only one still sitting on the launchpad as the market recovers.
My current weighting reflects which stock I think is most likely to see real, fundamental AI-driven momentum in the biggest way over the next 5 years — that's $PATH. But I'll be the first to admit that predicting the ebbs and flows of public sentiment in the near term is far from a science. Both $KLAR and $DUOL are growing faster today than UiPath, and $KLAR is trading at a roughly 50% discount on an EV/look-through earnings basis compared to even $PATH, which itself is dirt cheap at 6.6x EV/look-through earnings. All three are founder-led, which is a requirement for every investment I make.
Looking ahead through the prism of my short history: after December 2022, it took a few years to fully recover and hit a new all-time high. As several have observed it will take a ~500% gain to break even again on the year from my current drawdown, but with as volatile as the market has been lately, I wouldn't be surprised to see a new ATH this year or next. That said, because I'm still >300% invested with leverage, I also wouldn't be surprised if my portfolio gets cut in half again before a recovery begins.
If it hasn't come across yet — I don't mind volatility. Volatility and real losses are not the same thing. A stock swinging 50% while the underlying business compounds at 40%+ annually is not a loss; it's an opportunity.
If the drawdown continues, there is no point where I stop leveraging into the market. When I see people selling into cash I laugh in sadness for them as the market actually looks more and more attractive the lower it moves, not less! In a continued drawdown the next few weeks would likely take out personal and business loans to load up further as I'm admittedly out of fresh personal capital, and at these valuations the deals would be too compelling not to take equally drastic action. This is my personal risk tolerance — not a recommendation — but it's how I've played the game since day one, and it's how I became a millionaire. Still being a millionaire after an 84% YTD drawdown is a pretty wild reality for a 30 year old who grew up as a poor missionary kid who's family lived on donations.
I have a plan for making my strategy more conservative as certain thresholds are hit, but now is the time to go big. My dream is donating the most amount of money possible to the poor in the name of Christ Jesus over a 1,000 year period - something I think becomes possible for the first time with trusted AI agents that can be imbedded with missions, upkeep their own infrastructure, and outlive any human, and potentially any company or government.
Even if I got completely zeroed out a dozen times, I would not give up on my gracious life calling to help Jesus "wake up my church" - which is even more fundamental and valuable than my personal desires to shrink world governments, feed the poor and fund the end times church. For what good would even a trillion dollars do for a Christian church that is lukewarm?
In Revelation 3 Jesus rebukes the lukewarm church of Laodicea saying "I know your deeds, that you are neither cold nor hot". This spiritual state is described as nauseating to Christ, leading to the warning, "I am about to vomit you out of my mouth". Lukewarm faith represents complacency and a lack of true love for neighbors or God, replaced by a feeling of self-reliance. "You say, 'I am rich, and have become wealthy, and have no need of anything,' and you do not know that you are wretched, miserable, poor, blind, and naked." I believe this largely describes the Western church today, and even much of my own day to day life.
We MUST listen to what the creator of our simulation warns us to do! "I advise you to buy from Me gold refined by fire so that you may become rich... and eye salve to apply to your eyes so that you may see. Those whom I love, I rebuke and discipline; therefore be zealous and repent. Behold, I stand at the door and knock; if anyone hears My voice and opens the door, I will come in and will dine with him, and he with Me. The one who overcomes, I will grant to him to sit with Me on My throne, as I also overcame and sat with My Father on His throne."
Perhaps volatility in worldly wealth does not bother me because even a trillion dollars looks colorless and worthless compared to that promise from my savior to share the throne with my creator. Jesus showed his love for me first by visiting earth and being crucified for my sins so that I can now stand blameless before him in a white robe, despite being naked and wretched without his cleansing grace.
