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MC
@CompoundMC
Learning about the 8th wonder of the world.
Se unió Şubat 2009
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POLITICAL BILLIONAIRES
The clip below is a good encapsulation of what modern China is by Eric X. Li, who’s one of the most thoughtful Chinese nationalists.
I appreciate his description, because the Internet is the exact opposite. Because on the Internet, capital (in the form of Bitcoin, and more generally smart contracts) really does stand above any given state.
The negative way of framing this emerging reality is that Internet capitalists are now above national governments. The positive way of framing it is: anyone can become an Internet capitalist, and there is now truly global rule-of-code that no state can easily abrogate. Moreover, individuals can’t have their digital rights revoked even by powerful states.
As for whether it’s bad if “billionaires” have influence over the government…the reality is that political leaders control many billions in assets. For example, a city like SF with ~$16B in annual budget and 11 supervisors plus a mayor essentially has 12 political billionaires.
Each of these political billionaires allocates $1B+ per year in cash, on average. This is orders of magnitude more than a typical tech billionaire allocates. That’s because tech billionaires might have $1B in net worth but perhaps only $10-50M liquid.
So: market billionaires actually have far less in the way of financial resources than political billionaires. A market billionaire might allocate perhaps $100M over the course of their lifetime, whereas a political billionaire will allocate $1B+ in a single year. This is a >100X differential.
Now, yes, it’s true that political billionaires have less for personal consumption than market billionaires do, but that is (almost by definition) societally unimportant. A political billionaire spending a billion on government worker salaries does a lot more to steer the world than a pair of fancy shoes.
One might also argue that political budgets are less discretionary than market budgets, and I’d agree, but the sheer scale of public budgets makes up for it. Even if only 1% of a $16B city budget is discretionary, that’s $160M in discretionary cash per year.
Anyway, the point is that anyone in control of a giant public budget is already in full billionaire mode. They are allocating billions in capital, so they are political billionaires. You are going to have billionaire-run government in this sense no matter what.
Dragon kingdom.wu🌃@loongkingdom
Chinese philosophy is more profound than western philosophy in light years
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@Brad_Setser @stevehouf @ScottSpacek You disputing that in-country sales by US MNCs isn’t a form of “trade” is “pedantic”, yes.
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"Trade deficits mask a lot of business that US companies do in China. While the US runs a large trade deficit with China, after accounting for subsidiary sales in both countries, the bilateral trade balance is closer to flat. In other words, Chinese companies export a lot TO the US while US companies sell a lot IN China."
source: am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jp…

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@kronbtc @Vlastim22840776 @Innerdevcrypto @PeterLBrandt @BitcoinLive1 @BobLoukas @TechCharts @BigCheds When did he send? I didn’t see a new video.
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BitcoinLive @BitcoinLive1 is a forum where a few traders in whom I have great respect share their outlooks on crypto. I focus on $BTC. I recommend the BitcoinLive service. Here is my April 11 Update. It speaks for itself. bitcoin.live/?aid=106 @BobLoukas @TechCharts @BigCheds

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Real life detailed example of absurd false precision in PE modeling for billion dollar acquisitions
I’m working on a model for a shipyard that generates a percentage of revenue by unloading ships
I model the cost of people unloading to correlate to the amount of tons
ex. If last year 100 tons were unloaded and salaries for unloaders were $100k it’s $1k per additional ton unloaded
VP made me fix it to insert cliffs for hiring new unloaders
ex. We don’t add any salary until we unload 10 more tons, then we hire another guy for $10k
Principle made me fix it to account for the difference in manager salaries
Ex. We add $8k for each 5 non managers and $10k more every 5th guy
Finally we get to the meeting with an MD who plays around with the model and ups volume by 1%
This makes EBITDA go down he says “this model is clearly not working”
Principal looks at VP, VP looks at me
I explain it went down because it’s the unlucky 1% increase that adds a new laborer and a new manager to costs
MD says EBITDA should never go down when volume goes up and tells me to fix
I put it back to the original way and we never speak of it again
But we wasted 2 days working on a completely irrelevant problem and this is the norm
Tanning Salon Don@TheSalonDon
Nobody in finance admits this because there would be nothing for analysts and associates to do all day
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@TrungTPhan Agree except Google. It’s has the 3rd higher distribution besides Apple (iOS) and Meta. Google search, maps, Waze, docs, YouTube, Nest, Home, Gmail -> tremendous number of customer touch points and data.
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Ben Thompson on how DeepSeek will impact Big Tech.
Longer term, "model commoditization and cheaper inference...is great" for the companies but to differring degrees:
◽Microsoft: Win as need to spend less on data centres/GPUs (but customer demand still grows)
◽Amazon: Big winner because it hasn't been able to make its own AI model but now will be very high-quality ones available at very low cost, that get served through AWS.
◽Apple: "Dramatically decreased memory requirements for inference makes edge inference much more viable, and Apple has best hardware for that.”
◽Meta: Biggest winner because it has most consumer touch points for AI and can serve all users even cheaper.
◽Google: "Probably worse off", because specialized TPU hardware less valuable and cheaper inference increases likelihood of more AI alternatives to search.
◽Nvidia: Two main Moats (CUDA, networking multiple GPUs) are challenged. Company "isn't going anywhere...however, [NVDA] is suddenly facing a lot more uncertainty”.
But still three factors in Nvidia’s favour: 1) DeepSeek methods may improve performance of H100 and future chips; 2) greater AI usage overall is positive for Nvidia; and 3) r1/o1 type reasoning models are compute hungry.
***
Much more here: stratechery.com/2025/deepseek-…


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Ross was just granted a FULL AND UNCONDITIONAL PARDON by @realDonaldTrump. Words cannot express how grateful we are.
President Trump is a man of his word and he just saved Ross's life. ROSS IS A FREE MAN!!!!!
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MC retuiteado

@amkhanniazi Who wants to get paid to make an mobile app for me? DM open.
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@AdvisorJohn @GuyDealership Same here! Got the 2021 and same thought process
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@GuyDealership I’ve seen warranties lately that offer years with unlimited mileage…I purchased a ‘22 GLS 450 a couple weeks ago and I think it was only $3,500 to get what would be equivalent to 200k miles for me…kids club sports really racks up mileage!!!
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I struggle with this question:
“Should I buy the extended warranty?”
A friend sent me this message the other day, and it sums up why it’s so tough for me to answer this question:
“We’ve sold vehicle service contracts for over $3,000 that weren’t used once, and others for $1,500 that had $10k+ worth of claims”
Bottom line — It really depends on the car you’re buying, current mileage and how well you plan on maintaining it.
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@GuyDealership When is best time to buy used car? Looking at 2021 GLS 450 model so still 2 years under warranty since it’s a CPO.
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