Michael Testarossa

Mood

@aakashgupta Atleast we’re not AllBirds @jord_ant

Allbirds is a case study in how to kill a DTC darling from the inside out. November 3, 2021. Shares open at $21.21, surge 91% on day one, close at $28.64. Market cap touches $4.1 billion. Time magazine had already called them "the world's most comfortable shoes." Silicon Valley was wearing them like a uniform. Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, Tiger Global, and Franklin Templeton had poured $253 million into the company before it ever went public. The IPO raised another $303 million. Total capital absorbed: over half a billion dollars. Sale price today: $39 million. That's a 99% value destruction from peak to exit. The decline wasn't sudden. Revenue peaked near $305 million in 2022, then started falling. $254 million in 2023. $190 million in 2024. Losses never stopped. $25.9 million loss in 2020. $93 million loss in 2024. In January 2026, they announced they were closing every full-price retail store in the United States. And here's the part that should terrify every DTC founder watching this. The acquirer, American Exchange Group, owns Aerosoles, Ed Hardy, Rampage, and White Mountain. These are brands that live in outlet malls and TJ Maxx. That's where Allbirds is headed. The $95 wool sneaker that Obama wore is about to sit on the same shelf as Ed Hardy. The investors who funded this at a $1.7 billion valuation in 2020 are getting back roughly 2 cents on the dollar. The public market investors who bought at $28.64 on IPO day watched the stock fall to $3.18. Every DTC brand that went public in 2021 told the same story: "We're a tech company that happens to sell physical products." Allbirds, Warby Parker, Rent the Runway, FIGS, Sweetgreen. The market believed it. Then it did the math.

@JonahLupton Be straight with me, how bad is it going to get?

$IREN testing the 50w

Very important level for $HOOD, down -57% from highs, now testing the Feb 2025 highs and the .618 fibs retracement from August 2024 lows

@TalkinJohnnies The Boozer brothers would never @BarstoolBigCat

Zuby got the boys iced up before the Sweet 16 game vs Duke #SJUBB

@jeffborzello @DanaONeilWriter Same, Tom. Same.

Tom Izzo, after being asked by @DanaONeilWriter about why he keeps coming back: "I'm not ready to give into the system, even though I think the system is completely broken."

@johnewing @MSU_Basketball @BetMGM you just LOVE to see it CC: @jord_ant

.@MSU_Basketball (+1.5 vs. UConn) is the least bet team to cover in the Sweet 16 at @BetMGM Tom Izzo:

@Matt_Gajewski CJ Cox on Purdues injury report now…

Texas (+7.5) vs. Purdue (148.5) Injuries Texas - Lassina Traore Purdue - Healthy Notes: #31 Texas is 21-14, beating #36 NC State (68-66), #24 BYU (79-71), & #15 Gonzaga (74-68) to get here after closing the regular season 1-5. Texas has 3 poor losses to #67 Arizona State (87-86 neutral), #102 Mississippi State (101-98 OT home), & #65 Ole Miss (76-66 neutral). They have 4 top 25 wins over #12 Alabama (92-88, w/o Wrightsell), #11 Vanderbilt (80-64), #24 BYU (w/o Saundes), & #15 Gonzaga (w/o Huff). #8 Purdue is 29-8, beating #186 Queens (104-71) & #30 Miami (79-69) to get here. They finished with 2 sub-25 losses to #28 UCLA (69-67) & #43 Indiana (72-67). Purdue has 8 top 25 wins, including #1 Michigan, #13 Nebraska x2, #22 Iowa x2, #23 Wisconsin, #20 Texas Tech, & #12 Alabama. Texas is 75th in height & 18th in rebounding. Purdue is 118th in height & 12th in rebounding. These teams are almost identical in rebounding. Texas is 71st in Effective FG%, 62nd in 2pt%, & 128th in 3pt%. They rank 257th in 3pt rate. Texas will occasionally attack in transition, but they use a lot of pick/rolls, post-ups, & high/lows with Dailyn Swain (35.6%) & Matas Vokietaitis (7-0). Camden Heide (46.1%), Jordan Pope (36.4%), & even sometimes Tramon Mark (31.4%) provide some shooting. They’ve been solid on the offensive glass. Purdue is 35th in total defense, 244th inside, & 172nd on the perimeter. They do not allow transitions & offensive boards. However, they are vulnerable against frontcourt actions, mainly pick/rolls & teams that can space. Oscar Cluff (6-11) has emerged as a decent rim protector, while Braden Smith can handle the ball. Where they put Fletcher Loyer & CJ Cox will be key for Texas. Purdue is 9th in Effective FG%, 18th in 2pt%, & 6th in 3pt%. They rank 153rd in 3pt rate. Purdue uses pick/rolls, post-ups, inside/outs, & high/lows through Cluff and Trey Kaufman-Renn. This sets up shooting from Smith (36.7%), Loyer (43.3%), Cox (38.4%), Jack Benter (41.4%), & Omer Mayer (37.1%). They’re solid on the offensive glass. Texas is 92nd in total defense, 90th inside, & 249th on the perimeter. Swain (6-8) is their best defender by a mile, but Vokietaitis has improved of late. Texas does not have a guard within the top 50 SEC defenders. Neither team forces many turnovers with both teams outside the top 240. Texas is 350th in turnovers forced. Texas is 2nd in fouls drawn, but Purdue never fouls. Purdue is 158th in fouls drawn, while Texas is 271st in fouls committed. Texas is 216th in tempo, while Purdue is 325th. Both teams have slowed slightly over the last six weeks. Model Prediction Texas - 71.5 Purdue - 80.2 Bet: Purdue -7.5 Lean: Over 148.5

Here's a few notes on the Sweet 16 Thursday matchups🧵 🏀Texas vs. Purdue 🏀Illinois vs. Houston 🏀Iowa vs. Nebraska 🏀Arkansas vs. Arizona

@mattmurley19 FACTS

Michigan State

@AdamSchein You know what to do here as well gents @tradingaddicts @Jfears5 - Get the word out to Tom

I like UCONN over MSU. And I'll say it... UCONN has the COACHING advantage.

@TimelessTrvlr Couldn’t agree more. One of the most slept on cities in America.

Chattanooga, Tennessee feels like the rare city where you can bike along a river at sunset, ride a rail car up a mountain for perspective, and still afford to live within reach of it all.

@Sheehan_Sports Feed it to me. INCREDIBLE. Love the doubting us. Send to the whole squad! @tradingaddicts @Jfears5 You know what happens next 😤

Oh yeah THAT’S the stuff

@barstoolsports Bad omen. Texas to the elite 8 now.

Fletcher Loyer threw down the U after beating Miami today

@ChrisVannini Mind blowing

Tom Izzo is now 26-9 in the second game of an NCAA Tournament weekend. Seven of those nine losses have come to a No. 1 seed or the eventual national champion.

@Clapped_Dre Couldn’t agree more. Love what I saw today!

Trey Fort will have a Kenny Goins type shot in this tournament

@SahilBloom Same exact thing for me…except it’s a one mile run with a lift…you’re a sicko my friend 🏃‍♂️

Actual Saturday in the life of this mid-30s guy in the suburbs: 4:30am - wake up 5am - 12 mile run 6:30am - lift 8am - cook breakfast for family 9-5pm - activities w/ family 5pm - cook dinner for family 6pm - sauna 6:30pm - movie w/ family 8pm - sleep Wouldn’t change a thing.

@mikealfred @jord_ant PAYYYYYYtience

Most can't see it yet but I am watching up close as IREN positions itself to make a run at being one of the largest companies on the planet. There are no guarantees of anything in life but IREN has all the right ingredients. Let's freaking go.

@CBBonFOX The best to ever do it. My GOAT

“The way you can do it now, maybe I can petition or get a judge or something and get him back—who knows… just kidding.” 😂 Michigan State HC Tom Izzo discusses the growth he’s seen from Carson Cooper and believes his best basketball is still ahead of him.

@msucontent @JayBilas @PFTCommenter @SethOnHoops @TheHerd @RaphealDavis3 Please add Michael Testa, Co-Founder @wunderfan to this 🙏🏽

Notable people who have Michigan State in the Final Four👀 • Jay Bilas • Colin Cowherd • PFT Commenter • Seth Greenberg • Rapheal Davis

@IREN_Ltd @NVIDIAGTC @theallinpod @Jason @danroberts0101 @nvidia Something

Attending @NVIDIAGTC? Don't miss @theallinpod @Jason's interview with $IREN Co-Founder and Co-CEO @danroberts0101. 🗓️When: Today, 1:15pm PDT 📍Where: Expo Hall (between the @nvidia Booth and Automotive area)

@JBRBracketology @TylerSmith_ISL The multiplier by seed is a good way to reward the risk takers though.

@TylerSmith_ISL I like Fibonacci 2-3-5-8-13-21 Better than the traditional, still highly values the Championship teams/ title winner, but gives a little more (relative) weight to first two rounds

The correct way to score March Madness brackets (or something similar to it). The default scoring is trash lol

@SmallCapSnipa See you in Valhalla

$IREN is GREEN back to $45 📈 IREN +8.08% today 🟢 • Exponential compute demand • Nebius x Meta (Vera Rubin) • Nvidia GTC Deals are on the horizon