Market Analyzer

The "Buy Now, Pay Later" crisis: 47% of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) users were late in paying their BNPL loans over the last year. This percentage has risen +6 points from 2025 levels and +13 points over the last 2 years. High-income borrowers, young adults, men, and parents of young kids are among the most likely to miss payments. This comes as 25% of borrowers now hold three or more active BNPL loans at once, driven by Gen Z and Millennials. Furthermore, 29% of users are now turning to these loans for groceries, and 20% for restaurant delivery or takeout. Transactions using BNPL loans are expected to surge to a record $687 billion in volume by 2028, from $334 billion in 2024. Americans are increasingly “fighting” inflation with more debt.

🚨BREAKING: Two researchers from UPenn and Boston University just published a paper that should be uncomfortable reading for every CEO automating their workforce right now. The argument is straightforward. Every company replacing workers with AI is also eliminating its own future customers. Laid off workers stop spending. Enough of them stop spending and nobody can afford to buy anything. The companies that fired everyone end up selling into an economy with no purchasing power left. Every executive can see this. The math is not complicated. But here is why nobody stops. If you do not automate, your competitor does. They cut costs, lower prices, take your market share, and you collapse anyway. So every company automates knowing it is collectively destructive because the alternative is dying alone while everyone else survives. The researchers proved this is a Prisoner's Dilemma playing out in real time. The numbers are already moving. Block cut nearly half its 10,000 employees this year. Jack Dorsey said AI made those roles unnecessary and that within the next year the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion. Salesforce replaced 4,000 customer support agents with AI. Goldman Sachs deployed a coding tool that lets one engineer do the work of five. Over 100,000 tech workers were laid off in 2025 and AI was cited as the primary driver in more than half those cases. 80% of US workers hold jobs with tasks susceptible to AI automation. The researchers tested every proposed solution. Universal basic income does not change a single company's incentive to automate. Capital income taxes adjust profit levels but not the per-task decision to replace a human. Collective bargaining cannot hold because automating is always the dominant strategy. They also identified what they call a Red Queen effect. Better AI does not solve the problem, it accelerates it. Every company chases faster automation to gain market share over rivals but at the end everyone has automated equally, the gains cancel out, and the only thing left is more destroyed demand. The one thing the math says could work is a Pigouvian automation tax. A per-task charge that forces companies to account for the demand they destroy each time they replace a worker. The conclusion is that this is not a transfer of wealth from workers to owners. Both sides lose. Workers lose income. Companies lose customers. It is a deadweight loss with no market mechanism to stop it on its own.

Quick update here. High value information or like X Plebs like to say “Alpha”… 🤣🤦‍♂️🤨🤔

1/ I said it yesterday I’ll say it again… S&P price floating higher as VIX holds 18 support that is showing that institutions are selling and or hedging. If VIX can hold 18 which it did yesterday and today rally could be topping out setting up for a pullback. Continued

Allbirds, the shoe brand, now says it's an AI compute company.

BREAKING: Allbirds stock, $BIRD, surges over +200% after announcing they are pivoting from shoes to AI.