Neil Howe

The single question readers have asked me most since my book “The Fourth Turning Is Here” came out is: “What can we do to prepare for the coming climax?” $HEFT is my answer on the wealth-management side. As an ETF, it’s available to everyone. I’m excited to co-manage it with veteran PM @RPKent—I’ll focus on strategy, RPK will focus on tactics. To my readers: avoid chasing indexes. If you're worried about your inflation-adjusted wealth over the next decade--and wish to do more than hide out in T bills--please give HEFT your serious consideration. For important investor information, including prospectus and risk considerations, visit: hedgeyeam.com/HEFT

Two big drivers here: natural gas and fertilizer.

Institutions slowly rot from the inside. The Fed is Exhibit A. In this article we break down: 1. Why the Fed was created 2. How it has failed The People 3. What comes next & how to prepare Full story below.

“Each turning produces the next by destroying what the last one built.” -Neil Howe @HoweGeneration

Neil Howe's Fourth Turning thesis is simple: institutions rot from the inside before the Crisis forces a reckoning. The Fed is Exhibit A. @HoweGeneration

Movie ticket sales are now -51% below their 2002 peak, when blockbuster franchises like Harry Potter, Spider-Man, The Lord of the Rings, and Star Wars dominated the big screen. demographyunplugged.com/p/hollywoods-b…

Can Trump simply declare victory and go home? I doubt it. Iran now holds a powerful lever: the Strait of Hormuz. With 20% of global oil flowing through it, Tehran can blackmail the world economy. Don't miss this week's podcast. demographyunplugged.com/p/episode-90-t…

This week was another reminder: The Fourth Turning is full of risk, and preparation matters. On today’s podcast, we break down the Iran conflict, from the Tanker War of the 1980s to the rise of drone warfare. Don't miss this episode! demographyunplugged.com/p/episode-89-a…

In Neil Howe's @HoweGeneration framework, every cycle ends in a Crisis, a climactic event that rebuilds legitimacy and restores civic cohesion. The American Revolution. The Civil War. The Great Depression and World War II. What we are watching today is ugly. But the exposures may be the precursor to renewal. A clearing event that makes a reset possible. A forest fire that burns the deadwood so something sturdier can grow back.

After Trump’s State of the Union address, blue-zone critics rushed to fact-check the numbers. But they’re missing the point: Trump isn’t selling statistics, he’s selling a narrative. I explain why in my latest podcast episode. demographyunplugged.com/p/episode-88-s…

Republicans are pushing stricter voter ID laws ahead of the midterms. But it’s unclear which party benefits. Trump won by mobilizing disengaged voters, and new rules could just as easily keep them home. demographyunplugged.com/p/episode-87-b…

The world is a mess right now — and investors can feel it. We are in the Fourth Turning: a period of deep structural change marked by economic instability, political polarization, geopolitical tension, and rising social unrest. This is not theoretical. It is happening in real time, and it is reshaping markets, leadership, and the global order. These environments can create uncertainty — but may offer opportunity for investors who are prepared. $HEFT is Hedgeye’s Fourth Turning ETF, built specifically to help investors navigate regime shifts with a disciplined, research-driven approach. Rather than relying on static allocations or backward-looking assumptions, HEFT is designed for a world where the rules are changing. Co-led by Neil Howe @HoweGeneration, author of The Fourth Turning, and portfolio manager R. Patrick Kent @RPKent, HEFT seeks to identify the sectors, themes, and equity opportunities most likely to benefit from long-cycle disruption, generational change, and the transition to a new market era. If you’re looking for a forward-looking equity strategy built for volatility, transition, and the next chapter of global change, we encourage you to learn more. @Hedgeye @KeithMcCullough Watch the short video overview here:

Many Silicon Valley CEOs believe this is the last great wealth grab before AI reshapes everything: an upper AI class with infinite leverage, and a permanent lower class shut out of work. But is AI truly revolutionary… or overhyped like the Metaverse? We tackle it in my latest podcast episode. demographyunplugged.com/p/episode-86-w…

The world is bat sh*t crazy right now. You haven’t lost your mind. We are living in a perilous and traumatic period which our analyst Neil Howe @HoweGeneration calls the “Fourth Turning.” Neil and the late Bill Strauss predicted this storm back in 1997. If you want to learn more about what’s going on and what comes next: simonandschuster.com/books/The-Four…

40% of Americans did not read a single book in 2025. Even more striking is how unequal the distribution of readers has become: Just 19% of US adults account for 82% of all books read, and the top 4% alone account for nearly half (46%). demographyunplugged.com/p/a-generation…

Just 38% of adults ages 18–29 say it is very important to their future that “America has power and influence around the globe,” compared with 60% of those ages 65+. That’s a striking 22-percentage-point gap. demographyunplugged.com/p/young-adults…

U.S. population growth slowed sharply in 2025: +1.8M people, or +0.5% — the weakest pace since the pandemic. That’s down from +3.2M (+1.0%) in 2024, driven almost entirely by a collapse in net immigration, from 2.7M to 1.3M. demographyunplugged.com/p/episode-85-u…

Just crossed 11,000 subscribers on my Substack. In a chaotic moment, I’m grateful for readers who want historical perspective, not just headlines. The Fourth Turning is here, and it’s rewriting culture, politics, and markets. demographyunplugged.com

A defining trait of the 4th Turning era, before real adversity hits, is rising pessimism. Now, these negative emotions are spilling into pop culture. Today, 45% of Billboard Top 100 songs contain themes of “angst,” up +13 points since the early 2000s. demographyunplugged.com/p/the-fourth-t…

Two of our ETFs — $HECA and $HEFT — have been nominated for the 2026 ETF .com Awards, recognizing best-in-class strategies from a field of more than 1,100 ETF launches in 2025. A strong validation of our research-driven, risk-managed approach. 👉 If you’d like to cast your vote, click here: etf.com/sections/featu… For important investor information, including prospectus and risk considerations, visit: hedgeyeam.com @Hedgeye @RPKent @HoweGeneration @dsaleminvestor @KeithMcCullough