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I've worked on the Sell Side, Buy Side and Hedge Funds in my career and I can say one thing for certain: everyone thinks everyone else is an idiot. 😂
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R. Patrick Kent (RPK)
5.6K posts
R. Patrick Kent (RPK)
@RPKent
Portfolio Manager, Hedgeye Asset Management | Co-Founder & Pres, Biophysical Economics Inst | 25+ years Investment Experience | CFA, CMT | Bass Player & BJJ
Boston Katılım Nisan 2009
477 Takip Edilen2.4K Takipçiler
R. Patrick Kent (RPK) retweetledi
@dalibali2 He probably asked his HR AI agent to execute the layoff
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Were people still thinking that SWF financing was coming into AI this year?
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@KeithMcCullough Know when to hold them, know when to fold them.
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If only some of the people who "love the process" (when its making them money) loved the learning opportunities short-term losses offer them
Ryan Ricci@HedgeyeAI
@FarmerPhil83 @KeithMcCullough If only there was a company that had a gold position +75% and was building this before all metals crashed to the upside. Creating what would be one of the best starts to a year you could possible have.
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From the peak of 12% in 2014, energy fell to 3.5% of the benchmarks by way of 2%. What were large dedicated energy teams were reduced by 40- 60%. My last shop had gone from three energy analysts to one and his mandate broadened to include all materials. Been thinking about this.
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"The inability to predict outliers implies an inability to predict the course of history." - Nassim Taleb
Does your process continually map volatility to understand the range of possible outcomes? We are 20% of the way into the trading year, how many narratives for 2026 have been upended already?
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Game 53 in the 2026 season. Review the plays and draw up the next ones.
Keith McCullough@KeithMcCullough
Top of the risk mgt morn
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R. Patrick Kent (RPK) retweetledi
Neil Howe's Fourth Turning thesis is simple: institutions rot from the inside before the Crisis forces a reckoning. The Fed is Exhibit A. @HoweGeneration
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R. Patrick Kent (RPK) retweetledi
HAM For Lunch | @HedgeyeAM
Join Hedgeye CEO @KeithMcCullough for a candid conversation with 3 portfolio managers on how they're positioning capital right now.
Watch Live or On-Demand
Thursday, March 19 at 11:00am ET
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"Investors who can read the market's expectations and anticipate changes in those expectations will more likely generate superior investment returns." - Alfred Rappaport & @mjmauboussin
Does your process take into account the changing conditions on the ground? The value of information decays over time. Expectations shift. The machine adjusts. You need to be one step ahead.
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Game 52 in the 2026 season. Crack the notebook and get into it.
Keith McCullough@KeithMcCullough
Top of the risk mgt morn
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"Black-Scholes is so easy to teach and it's so beautiful mathematically, that a lot of people resent the idea of having to put it down and start again with soemthing more messy." - Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
The design in nature is fractal. There is beauty in it's asymmetry and it's recurrence at every level. Is your process in tune with that reality or not?
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Game 51 in the 2026 season. Time to execute.
Keith McCullough@KeithMcCullough
Top of the risk mgt morn
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@CoffeeandaMike @aeberman12 Art is great, you two will have good conversation.
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Tehran is now hitting the Hormuz bypass routes
Fujairah in the UAE has already been attacked.
But the Saudi East-West pipeline and the Red Sea route remain untouched…for now.
#Hormuz #OilWar #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #Shipping #OilMarkets
Javier Blas@JavierBlas
Iran has started a new phase of its oil war: Tehran is clearly going after the Strait of Hormuz bypass route, with Fujairah (UAE) coming under attack. But so far, the Saudi pipeline bypass hasn't been attacked (and neither the Yemeni Houthis have tried to close the Red Sea).
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R. Patrick Kent (RPK) retweetledi
Bingo. This is a fallacy I see and hear expressed over and over again. There is no special set of traders that has different information about the future, that others don't have, trading the long end of the curve. It's not a forecast.
Rory Johnston@Rory_Johnston
<clears throat>
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Global dollar liquidity on a one month annualized basis is contracting in the low single digits. It would be more negative given the dollar's recent strength if China wasn't adding to M2 at a 9% rate. $1T in dollar liquidity added in each of the last two months in China.
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"Stock prices express the collective expectations of investors, and changes in these expectations determine your investment success." - Alfred Rappaport & Michael Mauboussin
Does your process allow you to recalibrate investor expectations quickly? No one has a crystal ball. New information is constantly entering 'the machine' continuously and discretely.
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