PNRusty
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$BKSY: 🛰️ Earth Observation is finally coming into focus. AI-driven demand and the conflict in Iran have highlighted the importance of this market. Real world applications have finally materialized causing an inflection in demand where BlackSky's backlog increased to $345M and Planet's backlog increased to $900M. $PL business momentum has prompted me to revisit and take a spec position in $BKSY which I used to own in previously.
Enterprise Value:
$BKSY: $1B
$PL: $12B
BlackSky has demonstrated strong financial performance, however its results have been inconsistent as 97% of its customers are governments and militaries, which leads to results being very lumpy. 2026 should be a stronger year as additional Gen-3 satellites are deployed.
BlackSky primarily serves government/military customers with 49% of its revenue coming from US Government / Agencies / Military, 48% from international Governments and the remaining 3% from commercial customers.
Here's how $BKSY compares to $PL financially:
$BKSY vs. $PL Revenue & YoY Growth:
2026E: $133M 24% | $380M 23%
2027E: $170M 28% | $482M 27%
2028E: $215M 26% | $594M 23%
2029E: $264M 23% | $727M 23%
$BKSY vs. $PL Gross Margins & EBITDA:
2026E: 68% $11M | 51% $13M
2027E: 71% $40M | 55% $58M
2028E: 73% $60M | 63% $135M
2029E: 73% $85M | 67% $189M
$BKSY vs. $PL EBITDA Valuation Multiples
2026E: 92.9x | 920x
2027E: 25.5x | 201x
2028E: 17x | 87x
$BKSY trades massive EBITDA multiple discount to $PL while having comparable topline growth and much better margins. That said, Planet does have the upside of AI Data Center potential in partnership with Google and it has reached a higher level of financial scale.
However given all the interest in enabling military applications for space, $BKSY wins here with its massive exposure to US and Foreign (US friendly) governments. BlackSky should close the valuation gap with Planet in the coming months as it completes its Gen-3 constellation and signs more government contracts.
Short interest is 7.8M shares or 26% of the float. I estimate half of short interest is from convertible arb hedging from the $185M convert raised in July 2025. The rest are fundamental shorts 🔥
Finally, IMHO I think $RKLB should just buy $BKSY if they're looking to expand into attractive space vertical that leverages their capabilities = Earth Observation. $RKLB already launches $BKSY sats and it would be a highly accretive transaction🤷♂️

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PNRusty retuiteado

@elonmusk @SpaceInvestor_D you couldnt have casually thrown a $RKLB in this one? 🤣
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@Gykiwi03 @Forfuture100 I was just going to comment about AZ being the Geost home. I like it.
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@Forfuture100 💯 Filled an important role, one of many AI/machine learning positions RKLB have been hiring throughout 2025/26 for different areas.
Arizona the home of GEOST and Optical Support Inc.
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$RKLB 🚀 She should’ve listened.

Rocket Lab@RocketLab
Our largest launch contract yet: 20x new HASTE launches for @DeptofWar to accelerate hypersonics for America. We're delivering reliable, modern hypersonic capabilities to the nation with speed and affordability - and the first mission in this block of launches is just months away🚀
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@johhnyWalkerAZ My plan was always to save up for @anduriltech IPO but it's going to be too dang expensive when that time finally comes, unfortunately. x.com/PNRusty/status…
PNRusty@PNRusty
My $RKLB position is locked in and staying put (unless a significant dip--then I'm adding) 2025 will be about adding to my $ASTS position 2026 will be about growing my ammo for an @anduriltech IPO
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Me, the granddaddy of $RKLB, watching people who just found out about RKLB yesterday come lecture me on the company and its management.
What was the symbol before it de-SPAC'd? Did you know there was such a thing as warrants? Did you convert warrants into shares and hold through the ups and downs?
Did you believe in the management when the stock was trading in the dumpster and the rocket launch failed? Were you buying shares in the $3 handle? Were you watching every single attempt to catch Electron mid-air?
So spare me your lecture on how great the company is when I'm simply pointing out that there could be better timing for the offering.
Now I want you to be angry .... very angry . Bring all that rage and come at me bro!
🤣
GIF
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Ok, Panicans hear me out…so Europe made weapons-grade dumb energy policy moves by relying on Russian and Qatari gas while shutting down their own. India and China etc rely on Russia and Iran. So everyone else is having a supply shock while the US went the other way on gas and oil. Which economy is structurally having an advantage? And once Iran falls, it’ll be old news in like 10 seconds and people will realize S&P had been sitting on its 200 dma ready to rip faces off.
🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Not selling a share of anything I own.
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@growthrapidly On that list? E) $NBIS
In reality? F) Both $RKLB and $ASTS
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I’m 60 years old and resigned from BlackRock. My annual income is 2 million US dollars.
My March advice:
$ONDS (Ondas) — Strong Buy
$RKLB (Rocket Lab) — Buy
$SNDK (SanDisk) — Strong Buy
$AMZN (Amazon) — Buy
$PLTR (Palanti) — Buy
$NBIS (NEBIUS) — Strong Buy
$BIDU (Baidu) — Don’t buy
$U (Unity) — Don’t buy
$HUM (Humana) — Don’t buy
People ask, “Why don’t you charge?”
I’ve made enough. Sharing is my passion — that’s why I post for free.
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