S&P 500 Signals

I think both sides want a deal, though may take a week or two to get to an agreement.

@Ksidiii @jasongoepfert Agree, even the Iran invasion, when I wrote about it Polymarket and Kalshi odds were low considering all of the tweets pointing to it being imminent.

I think there’s a big misconception when it comes to large market moves. Many people take a theoretical view that “the market prices everything in.” But if you look at history, you’ll see that some of the largest market declines have come well after the catalyst was already widely known. 1.COVID-19: It’s called COVID-19 because it was identified in 2019. Yet markets didn’t fully digest the ramifications until mid-March, when economies were already shutting down. 2.GFC: Before the major collapse in Q3 and Q4 of 2008, it was already known in 2007 that cracks were forming. There were multiple warnings pointing to a potential mortgage crisis. Credit began to slowly reprice, and then it all unraveled at once. 3.Volmageddon: Prior to the February 2018 blowout, it was widely known among derivatives traders that these ETPs could fail. Portfolio managers were openly arguing with issuers at major derivatives conferences. 4.“Liberation Day”: Weeks before Trump announced tariffs, the market was aware he had a plan in place. In fact, markets initially rallied a few percent within seconds of the announcement, then went on to decline 20%. My point is that there’s a cognitive bias that leads people to believe the market is all-knowing, smarter than everyone, and always prices everything in. But during major volatility events, it’s often only at the very end that the market fully accepts the fear. This is likely because humans naturally are optimistic creatures. It’s embedded into our DNA.

🚨IRAN SAYS TRUCE, TALKS NOT VIABLE IN CURRENT CONDITIONS: FARS

@FreightAlley I’ve been hearing the same thing and couldn’t believe it

I haven't seen freight charts this bullish since COVID. Excited that Bloomberg is seeing the same signals in company transcripts and fundamental manufacturing and economic data Bloomberg Chief U.S. Economist 👇

Seems like these talks are going well…

عـــاجل 🚨: شروط وقف إطلاق النار الإيرانية، وهي جادةٌ للغاية: — تسليم نتنياهو للمحكمة الجنائية الدولية — الانسحاب إلى حدود 7 أكتوبر — إلغاء خطة ترامب لغزة — رفع جميع العقوبات، وإعادة الأموال المجمدة — الاعتراف بالحقوق النووية الإيرانية — الانسحاب من لبنان وسوريا واليمن — إخلاء جميع القواعد الأمريكية من الأراضي العربية — يجب على ترامب تقديم اعتذار علني لخامنئي — تعويض إيران عن كل عقوبة فُرضت عليها ثم ختموا كلامهم بالقول: "هذا ليس بالأمر العظيم عند الله". هذه ليست قائمة لوقف إطلاق النار، بل وثيقة استسلام مُقدمة لأقوى جيش في العالم. والأمر المثير للدهشة؟ بعد تعطيل الرادار الأمريكي، وتسليح مضيق هرمز، ورفض جميع دعوات وقف إطلاق النار، قد يكون لديهم بالفعل النفوذ الكافي للوفاء بوعدهم.

🛢️ De-escalation hopes calm markets Our Chief Strategist @Geo_papic told @Bloomberg: ⚠️ No resolution in 7–10 days risks a pandemic-style global shutdown 📉 Trump’s announcement signals concern that the real economy could fall off a cliff bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Israeli Channel 12: A ceasefire for a period of one month will be announced according to a mechanism that Witkoff and Kushner are working on

We are aware of what is happening in the paper oil market, including the firms hired to influence oil futures. We also see the broader jawboning campaign. But let’s see if they can turn that into "actual fuel" at the pump —or maybe even print gas molecules!

@Alpha_Ex_LLC Interesting point, I assume it’s driven by EU’s larger reliance on ME oil supplies

An interesting comparison is realized correlation among stocks in the SPX vs the same in the Eurostoxx50 where stocks have started to move in tandem considerably more. The premium of realized correl there vs the SPX is in the 97th %ile over the past 5 years. Chart below. To me, the lack of significant increase in realized correl among stocks in the SPX is a risk that has not yet, but easily could, materialize for US investors. Let's keep an eye on that. A rule of thumb tells us that 5 correlation points translates to a vol point. The Eurostoxx has realized 25 vol over the last month. The SPX just 14. There's a 35 point gap in 1m realized correlation between the 2 indices. Using our rule of thumb, that translates correlation to volatility, that 35 point gap accounts for 7 of the 11 vols of realized vol premium of Eurostoxx over SPX. Said another way, if the SPX realized the same level of single stock vol that it has, but had a Eurostoxx level of realized correl, it would have realized in the neighborhood of 21. If we then assumed the market embedded the same hefty vol risk premium (around a 12 spread of implied over realized) that it currently has in SPX options, you'd have a VIX well north of 30. So keep a close eye on the degree of co-movement in stocks. Of course, it's in the hands of the gent with the largest following on Truth Social. Good news, that app is free and accessible on your Iphone.

QATARENERGY - DECLARES FORCE MAJEURE ON LNG CONTRACTS WITH ITALY, BELGIUM, SOUTH KOREA, CHINA

📌 Equity Consolidated equity positioning sits in the 30th percentile, still firmly underweight, leaving room for upside if sentiment improves. For now, that shift has yet to materialize 👉 isabelnet.com/?s=equity h/t @DeutscheBank $spx #spx #sp500 #equity #stocks

@Mayhem4Markets Same vibes

Omfg we are sooooo cooked. 💀

Bad timing to have a refinery go down…

JUST IN 🔴 IRGC linked Fars News: U.S. and Israeli strikes targeted energy facilities in Isfahan and Khorramshahr.

@vixologist As a CMT, I believe that is the Abe Lincoln pattern

Name this technical formation. Wrong answers only.

This is notable news from Bloomberg given Apollo's standing in private credit: "Apollo Global Management Inc. is curbing redemptions from one of its largest non-traded private credit funds for retail investors, becoming the latest alternative asset manager to grapple with a surge in such requests. The $25 billion business development company, Apollo Debt Solutions, capped withdrawals at 5% of outstanding shares Monday after clients sought to redeem 11.2%." #economy #markets #privatecredit

BREAKING: Massive blasts heard across Tehran

Fair concern 😂

ISRAELI OFFICIAL TO YEDIOTH AHRONOTH: WASHINGTON HAS SET APRIL 9 AS THE DATE TO END THE WAR ON IRAN