Livan

2025 Portfolio Review (Last one to be published) Performance: 44.47% 5 Years TWR CAGR: 15.41% 5 Years MWR CAGR: 17.75% Holdings: 🇳🇿 $TAH.NZ 31% 🇯🇵 $6086.T 22% 🇯🇵 $353A 21% 🇬🇧 $MHA.L 12% 🇺🇸 $FULO 10% 🇺🇸 Cash 4% Comments, mistakes and metrics can be found in the link in bio

Many of you probably don't remember what happened after the South Sea Bubble. They banned publicly traded stock. But England continued to grow. It's a myth that once you got some capital market, that it has to be as fast and efficient as a casino. It doesn't. -Charlie Munger

Just learned about the beautiful personal library of a German mining engineer called Bruno Schröder. His entire house was covered in custom shelves he built himself, housing his life’s work – a 70,000 book collection. Bruno died in 2022 at 88, while in the midst of digitally cataloguing his massive collection. Sadly, he had no relatives and the house, including the books, was handed to an estate manager and put up for sale. That’s when his story and these photos surfaced.

Based on fully diluted shares, $MHA.L now trades at roughly 9x EV/PBT & 11x EV/FCF of the year ending March 26. Given HSD organic growth and the drag from acquisitions, the numbers drop to 8x PBT and 10x FCF on FY27, for an 87% recurring business with very low capital needs.

@JibbyCap That would be interesting, I guess it depends on how they structure it. I rather see $JSEART listed individually as you mentioned. Have you gotten any hint from management on it? They obviously disagree with how things work in SA but not sure if that is enough.

Maybe. And given what they stated in their PR I would not rule out that they do so. I'm not sure Argent would command a much higher multiple under $AIM.TO though, even if they list on the AIM. Listing $JSEART in the UK on a standalone basis makes sense because it fits the story of 'serial acquirer cleaning itself up by pivoting to the UK'. As part of $AIM.TO it will be more convoluted, esp given AIMIA's stated international goals and their poor reputation as a holdco. I also don't really think the incentive for AIMIA is to get Argent valued properly in the first place (at least in the short term), it's just to acquire a cheap source of FCF so they can start their M&A engine. Argent is very cash generative, and if Rhys speeds up the 'cleaning' by divesting the SA assets then you also have a way to unlock some quick cash right at the start. Not sure about the tax implications but it seems possible that those sales could then use the NOLs as well.

$AIM.TO (or $JSEAII I guess) getting a dual listing on the JSE. Strange move for sure. The PR states three reasons: 1. improve liquidity for existing SA investors, 2. qualify for potential investments by SA pension funds, and 3. facilitate their plans to acquire controlling interests in public companies. I don't think there are any big SA shareholders, and seeking SA pension fund investments for a Canadian listed company with no connection to SA whatsoever seems nonsensical to me. So reasons 1 and 2 I don't understand at all. Which leaves the third reason. (I'll be speculating here, so feel free to call me out on anything.) The chairman owns a couple of SA-listed companies through his fund. One of them, Argent Industrial $JSEART he has been involved with for a long time, so he is intimately familiar with the company. It's still trading very cheaply (~20% FCF yield), it has most of its subsidiaries in the UK, and it has some operations in NA. I'm talking my book here, as I also own a big pos in $JSEART (multiples larger than my $AIM.TO position), but is it possible that he will try to take a controlling stake in Argent through AIMIA? It will make sense in that they are acquiring a ton of UK assets at a bargain price, and the NA operations will allow them to start whittling away at the NOLs. They will be buying a cheap, stable, cash-generative business that would help them to get their M&A engine started. It also (kind of) squares with previous comments about wanting to buy something in the UK. It's obv highly speculative to suggest this. But how else can we square this move? If they do start listing on more exchanges (as they indicate they will in their PR), then maybe they really are looking for more liquidity? If that is the case then it is very strange to have the JSE as their first choice. At this point $AIM.TO shareholders have to ask whether they're being taken on another adventure, or whether there is some master plan. (Or both!) I personally think the chairman is too shrewd to pull any stunts, but it's definitely a character judgement one needs to be willing to make here. At this point, being in it just for the NAV discount is probably ill-advised, as who knows what kind of stuff is going to happen in the meantime. Buying Argent might make sense from a business standpoint, but it's possible that the market is going to hate the optics. Not just of buying something in SA ('here we go again') but also of buying something owned through a different vehicle by the chairman. I remain long (small position) because I don't care about short/medium-term price swings and I like Rhys. Whether he will end up buying Argent through AIMIA who knows, but in the end I think he will end up doing something that is good for long-term shareholders. That said, I don't see how anyone can hold this stock without having a similar conviction in his character. NFA DYODD etc

@TheRealJChubby @4_lugas @plainsman_32 I come from Cuba where they did this back in 1959. The part that this utopia misses is that the wealth concentration will just transfer to politicians and their families due to monopolistic power. Those in turn create 0 jobs, 0 economic output, and a huge drag on society.

@4_lugas @plainsman_32 I also don't think this. I appreciate a lot of it isn't liquid. We should nationalize the corporations "they built" and socialize the profits. We should also take what's liquid and hidden offshore. There are lots of ways to get the candy out of the pinata.

This is why we just have to take it from them.

I never thought that three of my most admired/followed companies would ever trade under 15x FCF. $CSU $BRO $VITEC Really interesting times we are living in.

@AbrilQuim La calidad funciona y seguirá funcionando siempre que 1)se compre a un múltiplo bajo, 2) no se esté equivocado en el valor terminal. Nadie ha cometido un error comprando CSU, Danaher, Meta, Moody o todas las demás a 10x beneficios. Los ciclos importan poco cuando logras eso.

REFLEXIÓN PARA LA COMUNIDAD🎁 ❌ El estilo calidad no funciona desde hace años (y no es una opinión, es ciclo). Uno de los mayores errores de los últimos años ha sido tratar el estilo calidad como si fuera atemporal. Como si bastara con comprar buenos negocios y esperar. 👉 Desde el post COVID, eso no funciona. Y sigue sin funcionar hoy No porque las empresas hayan empeorado, sino porque los ciclos cambiaron. 🧭 Qué es “calidad” en la práctica (especialmente en small caps) Negocio resiliente Márgenes altos Balance fuerte Empresas con: ROIC elevado, ingresos recurrentes y posición de net cash. ✔ Riesgo operativo bajo ✔ Riesgo financiero bajo Nada de esto está roto. 🧠 Qué hace funcionar al estilo calidad La calidad funciona cuando el mercado: Busca protección de capital Paga visibilidad futura Acepta múltiplos altos Eso era el mundo pre-COVID. Desde entonces, el régimen es otro. ⚠️ El riesgo dominante no es el beneficio, es el múltiplo Desde el COVID convivimos con: Inflación estructural más alta Tipos reales positivos Mayor coste de capital Retirada de liquidez Resultado: Compresión de múltiplos Castigo a la duración El mercado no paga estabilidad futura, paga flujo cercano La calidad es larga duración por definición. Y la duración no funciona en este ciclo. 🔄 Ciclo económico: ayuda parcial, pero insuficiente La calidad encaja mejor en: Desaceleración Incertidumbre Pero hay una trampa clave: 👉 Desaceleración con política monetaria restrictiva NO es un buen entorno para la calidad. El ciclo monetario domina y anula el encaje económico. 📊 Ciclo de mercado: estilo saturado Desde el COVID: la calidad se convirtió en refugio consensuado flujos ya dentro expectativas altas Cuando un estilo está caro y el ciclo monetario va en contra: poco upside ylargos periodos de underperformance 🚦 Semáforo de los 3 ciclos (Post COVID) 🔴 Ciclo monetario → en contra 🟡 Ciclo económico → neutral / insuficiente 🟢 Ciclo de mercado → concurrido, sin catalizadores 👉 Por eso no funciona como estilo, aunque las empresas sigan siendo buenas. 📐 La regla que no se puede esquivar Aquí no hay debate: O inviertes con un horizonte real superior a 7 años, o incorporas el análisis de ciclo económico, monetario y de mercado. No hay otra. Si no miras ciclos: Asumes riesgo de múltiplo sin cobrarlo, confundes calidad con protección y te sorprende la underperformance 🎯 Conclusión ✔ La calidad sigue siendo buen negocio ❌ Desde post COVID, es mal estilo en este régimen Invertir bien no es solo elegir empresas. Es entender cuándo ese tipo de empresa encaja con el ciclo. 👉 Apúntate GRATIS al Club y aprende a integrar análisis fundamental con análisis de ciclo económico, monetario y de mercado, para no depender solo de “buenas empresas”. 🎟 Código descuento: Descuento100 🔗 dracoglobal.es/cuenta-de-memb… Si no entiendes los ciclos, el mercado te los enseña a base de tiempo perdido.

@OldWell17 I am glad you found it helpful.

@SimplerInvestor Appreciate you sharing your thoughts - you’ve found some cool off the beaten the path businesses!

New Write Up on: 🇯🇵 $353A Elevator Communications Co, Ltd EV/MC - 3,000B ¥ EBIT FY 26 (May 26) 300M ¥-350M ¥ EBIT/FCF Conversion- 101% (3 Year Average) EV/EBIT-10x EV/FCF-10x ROIC-31% -Founder Led -Insiders own 75% -Revenue has grown every year since 2006 Link in bio

@OldWell17 The tax rate situation there is a bit special. I would rather look at the OP income. The lift in the margins has been between 250bps and 400bps from 23' to 25'

@SimplerInvestor Got it, thanks. It’ll be interesting to see if they can maintain these margins. It looks like they only earned 1% net margin for the 4 years up to FY5/24, with a loss on pretax profit in 2022.

@OldWell17 They mention it in their IPO prospectus.

@SimplerInvestor Out of curiosity, where do you see that revenue has grown every year since 2006? I only see financials back to FY5/22 on Bloomberg

🇯🇵 $6086.T Shin Maint Holdings continues to deliver great performance like clockwork. Q3 YTD Revenues: ¥23,245 up 17% Q3 YTD OP Income: ¥1,743 up 23% Q3 YTD Net Income ¥1,140 up 25% Guidance for the full year in Operating Income is once again achieved by Q3.

@Jave_t23 Yes, price was starting to get uncomfortable, it is back to low double digit FCF territory.

@SimplerInvestor There has been an interesting pullback from $TAH.NZ over the last few weeks

2025 Portfolio Review (Last one to be published) Performance: 44.47% 5 Years TWR CAGR: 15.41% 5 Years MWR CAGR: 17.75% Holdings: 🇳🇿 $TAH.NZ 31% 🇯🇵 $6086.T 22% 🇯🇵 $353A 21% 🇬🇧 $MHA.L 12% 🇺🇸 $FULO 10% 🇺🇸 Cash 4% Comments, mistakes and metrics can be found in the link in bio

Warren Buffett retires today, most likely in his mind at the closing bell, just minutes from now. Congratulations to the greatest investor the world will ever know. The returns speak for themselves - Berkshire earned 6,118,651% or 19.9% annually over his 60 years running the company. The S&P 500 returned 46,491%, or 10.4%. Berkshire’s shares could decline by 99.2% and still have outperformed the market. The record is even greater when including the partnerships he ran through 1969. However, it is not the returns but the way Warren did it that matters most; with integrity and morality - and with humility and humor. He didn’t have to teach, but he did. On behalf of so many of us, thank you, sir.

This year's write-ups on Asian Century Stocks. If you're interested in any of them, join! asiancenturystocks.com/library/

@OverlookedAlpha @finphysnerd Apparently not

@finphysnerd @SimplerInvestor not on IBKR?

@longwalkcapital Not sure, I use Fidelity and it was a bit of a challenge to get the name included.

@SimplerInvestor Numbers look good but is this buyable on IBKR?