Jibby

@QuipusCapital Shield of the Republic is my go-to podcast. Conservative with an anti-Trump bias, hosted by two very intelligent and experienced gentlemen

What do you listen to or read for discussion of the war? Objective (kinda?): Foreign Affairs, CSIS, Cappy Army US/Israel-biased: Fox, TBN Israel, briefings from CENTCOM, Hegseth, Israeli Cabinet Anti-US/Israel/Trump biased: Carlson, Al Jazeera, Mearsheimer What else?

@SaeschInv Would love to hear about the next steps. I.e. what do you plan to do with your watchlist

In case someone has any questions regarding my A-Z journey on AIM, about AIM itself, the process, ... let me know, I'll answer them in my wrap-up next week.

Sure. With $TVK.TO I generally just assume they can get 10% normalized FCF margins, which put the stock at ~16x run-rate FCF. IMO 16x is cheap ish for a quality compounder with world-class management. The usual pushback you get for paying up for TVK is that the businesses have negative organic growth and terminal value risk. This is losing relevance now, because both the business quality and the outlook for fossil fuels have changed rapidly. For the same reason there could also be some upside to FCF margins. It's not a no-brainer, but if I did not already own it, I would be more tempted than I had been in a while. NFA

@JibbyCap What's your take on the valuation of the company currently (if you're willing to share)

TerraVest $TVK.TO share price has been flat for about a year now. That shouldn't come as a surprise, as the valuation ran up a lot from '23-'25. That said, I've been feeling pretty good about the underlying business lately. There are a lot of drivers pushing in the right direction right now: * LNG production in Canada continues to ramp. This was already positive, but now even more so d/t the Hormuz situation resulting in an LNG supply crunch. This is good for BC nat gas production -> good for TVK's PE segment. * Crude oil is up and might stay there for a while. Good for PE, and especially Services. (Although there is a slightly counter-cyclical effect here for propane, as higher crude oil prices result in higher propane prices, which reduces demand.) * Propane is now in a stronger position domestically as the 'electrify everything' trend has died off. In addition, a harsh winter plus an already existing desire for fleet renewal should provide a positive backdrop for compressed gas. * US trucking rates are increasing -> positive for trailer demand. * C-store buildout, data center buildout -> positive for HT/composites. * The NA chemical sector appears to be inflecting a little bit. This is now being supercharged by the war in Iran, as global competitors are having a rough time sourcing cheap feedstock from the Middle East. Not saying 'the cycle has turned', but at the moment it seems like a hopeful time to be selling chemical containment equipment in North America, where feedstock is cheap and plentiful. TerraVest has operated in a hostile environment for most of its 'modern' history, usually due to low oil/gas prices or political hostility toward fossil fuels. (E.g. cancelled oil pipelines, drilling permit freezes, heat pumps being subsidized to replace propane heating, increasingly stringent gas/oil boiler efficiency requirements, etc etc etc.) Yet even then TVK thrived. And now it appears that many of those factors are inflecting. Execution was wonderful when conditions were poor -- what will it be like when the demand backdrop flips?

@SaeschInv Great work @SaeschInv !

One last time. 25 Tickers. Thanks to everyone who followed along. 646 covered companies in total, 39 parts. Link in bio or below.

I'm not deep in the weeds on the stock, so excuse the lazy question. But isn't it possible that most of the demand is from simple tasks like translation work, data entry, simple graphic design, simple programming tasks? I.e. already 100% replaceable by AI? If that is even 50% of demand, then that ~4x FCF multiple is deceptive. And having used Fiverr many times personally, and thus being familiar with what is advertised there, this 50% figure does not seem excessive. The 'cheap foreign freelancer' business makes sense only for low-cost, low-complexity tasks. Seems to me like you're basically waiting for Fiverr users to find out that Claude can do for $0.01 what their Bangladeshi graphic designer had been doing for $15. And you don't have to deal with the language barriers/back-and-forth with your freelancers anymore. I could be wrong but paying 4x FCF when revenue is liable to drop off a cliff seems neither uncomplicated nor cheap to me.

The thesis on $FVVR needn't be made complicated. -Last year they generated $2.78 free cash flow per share. Stock trades at just above $10 right now. -Business has negative cash conversion cycle and effectively infinite return on capital. Great, simple marketplace model. -AI will make their taskers more efficient; but entrepreneurs still will use it to outsource many tasks. I'm not bullish on the growth, but at these prices, if it's a shrinking ice cube you should still make some good money. - They spent $90M on R&D last year; yet you can buy the company right now for an enterprise value of $110M - $100M buyback authorization. - Heavy insider ownership.

Quipus produces very high quality content. Although this article is free I recommend getting a paid subscription if you can, esp if you are interested in cyclicals. Tons of great stuff behind the paywall.

Does anyone know how to get this book? I know there's a pdf on csinvesting.org but the website doesn't work for me. I tried getting it legitimately but the author won't respond to my emails and it isn't on Amazon.

@evfcfaddict @OtterMarket Your good word seems to have worked, thanks again!

@JibbyCap @OtterMarket I put in a good word for you, maybe it helps maybe he never gets to read it because pm‘s on here are very unreliable.

What's a brother got to do to have @OtterMarket accept a follow request

@evfcfaddict @OtterMarket Thanks Andy, appreciate it!

@TrentBlair19 Is management still prioritizing growth over capital returns?

$FORA.TO $VFORF 2x FCF Half of book. Big earnings improvement sequentially.

There's a good chance that tariffs will be swiftly reinstated through other means. Short article explaining Trump's options (paywalled, DM if you want a copy): economist.com/finance-and-ec…

Nope never been able to get hold of mgmt despite repeated attempts. So I have no clue how keen mgmt is for a UK listing. I know Rhys likes the combination of prolonged undervaluation together with buybacks though, so I'm not sure whether the incentives are in place to get a UK listing done any time soon.

@JibbyCap That would be interesting, I guess it depends on how they structure it. I rather see $JSEART listed individually as you mentioned. Have you gotten any hint from management on it? They obviously disagree with how things work in SA but not sure if that is enough.

$AIM.TO (or $JSEAII I guess) getting a dual listing on the JSE. Strange move for sure. The PR states three reasons: 1. improve liquidity for existing SA investors, 2. qualify for potential investments by SA pension funds, and 3. facilitate their plans to acquire controlling interests in public companies. I don't think there are any big SA shareholders, and seeking SA pension fund investments for a Canadian listed company with no connection to SA whatsoever seems nonsensical to me. So reasons 1 and 2 I don't understand at all. Which leaves the third reason. (I'll be speculating here, so feel free to call me out on anything.) The chairman owns a couple of SA-listed companies through his fund. One of them, Argent Industrial $JSEART he has been involved with for a long time, so he is intimately familiar with the company. It's still trading very cheaply (~20% FCF yield), it has most of its subsidiaries in the UK, and it has some operations in NA. I'm talking my book here, as I also own a big pos in $JSEART (multiples larger than my $AIM.TO position), but is it possible that he will try to take a controlling stake in Argent through AIMIA? It will make sense in that they are acquiring a ton of UK assets at a bargain price, and the NA operations will allow them to start whittling away at the NOLs. They will be buying a cheap, stable, cash-generative business that would help them to get their M&A engine started. It also (kind of) squares with previous comments about wanting to buy something in the UK. It's obv highly speculative to suggest this. But how else can we square this move? If they do start listing on more exchanges (as they indicate they will in their PR), then maybe they really are looking for more liquidity? If that is the case then it is very strange to have the JSE as their first choice. At this point $AIM.TO shareholders have to ask whether they're being taken on another adventure, or whether there is some master plan. (Or both!) I personally think the chairman is too shrewd to pull any stunts, but it's definitely a character judgement one needs to be willing to make here. At this point, being in it just for the NAV discount is probably ill-advised, as who knows what kind of stuff is going to happen in the meantime. Buying Argent might make sense from a business standpoint, but it's possible that the market is going to hate the optics. Not just of buying something in SA ('here we go again') but also of buying something owned through a different vehicle by the chairman. I remain long (small position) because I don't care about short/medium-term price swings and I like Rhys. Whether he will end up buying Argent through AIMIA who knows, but in the end I think he will end up doing something that is good for long-term shareholders. That said, I don't see how anyone can hold this stock without having a similar conviction in his character. NFA DYODD etc

@e_pap4 Interested

I am currently writing up one of the cheapest stocks I’ve seen while going through obscure OTC listings: - Profitable with recurring revenues - 2.3x P/E - Net cash 4x market cap The company had windfall years in 2022/23 with a new subsidiary they set up to serve their existing customers. Despite this, the stock price hasn’t moved and today you can buy the company for 25% of its net cash value. This stock has zero mentions online, and is invisible to screeners. The only way you would find it is going through all of the stocks on the OTC. I will post writeup on Thursday. Leave a comment and I’ll DM you the stock.

Maybe. And given what they stated in their PR I would not rule out that they do so. I'm not sure Argent would command a much higher multiple under $AIM.TO though, even if they list on the AIM. Listing $JSEART in the UK on a standalone basis makes sense because it fits the story of 'serial acquirer cleaning itself up by pivoting to the UK'. As part of $AIM.TO it will be more convoluted, esp given AIMIA's stated international goals and their poor reputation as a holdco. I also don't really think the incentive for AIMIA is to get Argent valued properly in the first place (at least in the short term), it's just to acquire a cheap source of FCF so they can start their M&A engine. Argent is very cash generative, and if Rhys speeds up the 'cleaning' by divesting the SA assets then you also have a way to unlock some quick cash right at the start. Not sure about the tax implications but it seems possible that those sales could then use the NOLs as well.

@JibbyCap With the recent sale of Bozzetto he does have the capital to do this. However If the intention is to take control of $JSEART and get it valued properly, perhaps an AIM listing made more sense?

@Blinklebloop Hmm ok, thx

@JibbyCap They have received approval- no communications from IBKR yet on when it will be available.

There's a lot of money to be made in Korea when we finally get access.