Overlooked Alpha

Big news for our $PRFT call

@celispj @dotdigital Not sure you can compare the two. Dotdigital is not an acquirer per se, its a profitable marketing company that's been around almost 30 years. Not sure if their Alio acq is a good one. Tiny is a collection of disparate, underperforming businesses and now has too much debt

.@dotdigital $DOTD is such a weird company. Been floundering on London AIM since forever, then somehow turns around and become a major acquirer of Shopify apps. First $TINY now Dotdigital, freaky how underperforming microcap acquirers are attracted to our space.

When you fuck up so bad you have to pause the sanctions on the country you started a war with.

interesting thread

If the US is asking European and Asian allies to send their navies to the Strait of Hormuz, they should consider demanding an immediate cessation of all US tariffs on them in return. I don't think Trump would hesitate to make that demand, if the situations were reversed.

wtf?

@Floebertus I don’t think Adyen margins are down 50% are they? Thanks for the reply

I don't invest in payment providers because I don't understand the value they provide and the competitive advantages they have to protect their margins So I don't understand why in 2 years Adyen's margins are down 50% because Revolut decided to drop fees. Don't know the company very well!

Sadly, Duolingo reported before the publishing of my February update letter. $DUOL

Surprised this isn't getting more attention: Zhipu AI trained GLM-5 entirely on Huawei chips. 744B params, 77.8% on SWE-bench Verified vs 80.9% for Opus 4.5. It's the first open source frontier LLM built entirely on non-Western hardware.

@ReneSellmann Thanks for the colour

@OverlookedAlpha Lost one major client in Q1 which obviously affects subsequent quarters. Acquisitions are fully showing in results (so no inorganic growth contribution anymore). Management cited industry sentiment. Probably also losing other business to competition too to some extent.

Computer Modelling Group is down 17% today. It's also down significantly over the past twelve months. So, of course, any coverage on FinX & co. completely died. $CMG.TO So let me give you an update: The results were bad. REAL bad. And the stock is probably rightfully down despite already being A LOT. The screenshot below says it all. Of course, there are attempts to explain them – read the accompanying letter if you need some copium, which, to be fair, straightforwardly acknowledges the lackluster results. But it still feels like management is sugarcoating things, and the numbers are just not that good and speak a very clear language. I’ll probably still wait and see (read: baghold) and give management more time, though. Valuation seems rather depressed, but could of course fall further if we're witnessing a dying business vs. a turbulent transition of the business (at this point it has become more of a turnaround). My cost base isn't crazy high, but I'm still down quite a lot here now that we dropped under C$4/share.

$POWL out with another earnings beat. The stock is now +227% since our post in March 2025.

@Floebertus @BerkelKip @atelicinvest you don't want to know trust me

@BerkelKip @atelicinvest I don't understand what this is about lol

Me: Surely the software sellers are exhausted and finished. The software sellers:

A dumb bear case can be dangerous for bulls by distracting from the real bear case.

If SpaceX lists at the rumoured $1,5 trillion valuation, the combined value of Elon Musk's companies would be $3,3 Trillion. Guess how much combined Free Cash Flow all the companies have cumulatively produced ever? Yep, less than 0. #but #bro #NEXT #YEAR 🙈🙉🙊

@PythiaR @akramsrazor @Benioff Long $WIX

@akramsrazor @Benioff 😂

@inglouriouscap 100%

Hot take: if I were an allocator I’d be annoyed that the people I’m paying 2/20 to are having to spend time writing me 25 page investment memos every quarter instead of investing. Personally think the whole letter writing thing in funds has to get axed. Do a two-pager.

now you see why some investors are nervous about software

@malinvested DPZ, Jubilant Foodworks, DOM, DMP, DPP are all down over the last 6 months. I think there is some concern over fast food in general w/ rollout of GLP-1s

@OverlookedAlpha yup as far as I can tell they are as well just always curious to hear any new bear cases floating around. short interest up too, so there’s some bear case out there.

$1405 HK (DPC Dash) appears to still be setting records with new store openings (some recent ones attached) … yet stock getting crushed anyone have a view why or a bear case that isn’t “they’re so crazy popular their new store openings create tough comps”?

@leevalueroach respect