Simon Staszkiewicz

@PrincessBravato Leaving Iran and letting them toll the strait is a humiliating defeat that would probably also end his career. His only hope is to bomb them until they submit, which doesn’t seem to be happening.

Ground invasion ends trumps political career. There is no coming back from that.

@1Santova @hoomansv More like trying to beat a tied up prisoner until he tells you the code to deactivate the bomb in the room.

@hoomansv This is like me getting in the ring with prime Mike Tayson and people celebrating that I made it to round 2 still alive while I’m sitting there almost dead and he is just chilling in the corner with some scratches I managed to do when I was fighting for my life.

This whole “Iran is winning” narrative hits hard if you’re mentally retarded

Stall tactics while they prepare a ground invasion. Remember, the US considers the regime in Iran a terrorist organization, and the US does not negotiate with terrorists.

@Nishant_Bliss Which is… exactly what it does in a crash?

SPX won’t crash tomorrow. Everyone is bearish when SPX is literally reaching its historic over sold levels.

@FirstSquawk Does China supporting talks… matter at all?

Pakistani Foreign Minister: I held a phone conversation with my Chinese counterpart, and he confirmed his support for the US-Iranian talks

@_The_Prophet__ Ground invasion will commence on day 1 of peace talks.

⚡️They are looking for an exit. That is what this is. Pakistan hosting talks means the regime has already crossed the psychological line from pure defiance to managed survival. You do not route talks through a third country unless you need deniability, face-saving, and a ladder. That is what broken regimes do when they still want to posture like they are choosing the outcome. My real take is that Tehran is now running a survival script. The political layer is trying to secure terms. The security layer is still firing because it wants the exit to look expensive, contested, and earned. That is not contradiction. That is bargaining through violence. They are trying to stop from a position that still feels like power. The regime knows it lost the old game. It is now trying to negotiate the shape of its retreat. The IRGC does not want endless war for its own sake. It wants a stop that does not look like humiliation. Pakistan is one of the ladders because it lets everyone pretend this is diplomacy, not surrender management. The deeper truth is uglier. Once a regime gets hit this hard, it often cannot just “decide” cleanly. Different organs move at different speeds. One part wants relief. Another part wants leverage. Another part wants revenge. So you get this exact pattern: talks opening, missiles still flying, public rhetoric still hot, private channels getting more serious. So what is really going on? They are already in the climbdown phase. They just have not admitted it yet. And every extra strike, threat, and missile now is mostly about improving the terms of stopping, not winning back the old future

Next up is ground invasion and either oil export bans or oil and gas windfall taxes because “oil companies shouldn’t be profiting while our soldiers are dying” as if this was all unavoidable. #oott

@SpecialSitsNews What happens to the petrodollar if they decide not to toll ships that paid in non-USD?

Iran could make more money from tolling than from oil...what a mess

@BRICSinfo Sure, I can offer to host talks that won't happen too.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Pakistan says it will host talks between US and Iran, AP reports.

@HayekAndKeynes This does not equate to a 20% reduction in personal crude oil/oil products consumption.

While this is the most extreme fuel disruption the world has ever experienced, it’s interesting how even cutting fuel consumption by 20% is not a difficult thing to do. It doesn’t make any difference to my personal finances, but I’ve been curious whether I could actually reduce my consumption by 10% or 20% without a lot of sacrifice, so I monitored what I did this week and tried to be intentional. Switching from my diesel to my EV was the easiest change, and I honestly didn’t drive it at all this week and used the golf cart for small trips around town. However, we’re going on a road trip now, and I don’t want to deal with supercharger wait times and range anxiety, so we took the diesel. I was curious how much speed changes would impact fuel economy. At 80 mph we got 18 miles per gallon, and at 60 mph we got 28 mpg—pretty absurd. I’m sure that those who are more constrained financially will just skip trips or carpool and will definitely take a more fuel-efficient option. I feel very confident that the world can make similar changes if nudged a little. Something could even come from the top down, like going back to a hybrid schedule if needed. That’s one of the few things workers would actually cheer for. The other part is the actual magnitude of fuel expenses. Assume someone drives 10,000 miles a year and gets 25 miles per gallon. You’re only talking about 400 gallons a year. That means a $2–3 jump in gasoline prices is not even $75–100 a month. Less for cities, more for rural areas. Likely for 3-9 months in duration. I would expect tourism (esp road trips) to be the natural casualty as this just adds a modest expense to a discretionary purchase that’s on the bubble for most. My other observation is that this seems more likely to be a medium-term deflationary force, as we make modest behavioral shifts that favor fuel economy while rushing to bring new supply to market.

Two weeks to secure the Da Nang airbase. “The U.S. Marine Force will not, repeat not, engage in day-to-day actions against the Viet Cong.”

@FirstSquawk Sounds like the kind of involvement that the Houthis warned against.

SAUDI ARABIA, TURKEY & EGYPT COULD FORM CONSORTIUM TO MANAGE OIL FLOWS THROUGH STRAIT OF HORMUZ, HAVE ASKED PAKISTAN TO PARTICIPATE - SOURCES

@LukeGromen Judge us not by our war crimes, but by the 10y UST yield.

Sec. Bessent, February 2025: "Judge us by the 10y UST yield." 10y UST yield (blue, RS) v. oil, since Bessent said that 👇 "3 Arrows" about to turn into "0-for-3 Arrows":

@luckynumb3r27 @FirstSquawk Are drone sites a thing? They can be deployed from basically anywhere. Iran also has a small fleet of minisubs but I don't think those will be very useful for combat, mostly just mining. We'll see!

@Stasmo @FirstSquawk Destroyers don't go in alone. The US won't even start a transit until they’ve used carrier-based air power to clear out those shore batteries and drone sites. The conversation ends once them Tomahawks start flying.

Countries met in Pakistan to prevent disruption in oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global crude supply. Proposal: •Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt may form a consortium to manage and secure tanker movement. •Pakistan has been asked to participate. •Objective is coordinated control, security, and smooth flow of oil shipments. Diplomatic angle: •Plan has been informally discussed with both the United States and Iran, indicating a de-escalation attempt rather than conflict. Why this matters: •Strait handles ~20% of global oil → any disruption spikes prices. •This plan aims to remove supply shock risk and stabilize shipping.

@JasonL_Capital @KobeissiLetter Probably easier to switch up the portfolio than to achieve world peace.

@KobeissiLetter Can we all just get along. For the sake of my portfolio.

IRAN’S SPEAKER OF THE PARLIAMENT: “The US speaks of negotiations in public, but plans a ground attack on secret… Iran’s armed forces are waiting for the US’ arrival.”

@gbrew24 It’s more nonsense to try to calm markets. Why do you think there are currently no US destroyers in the strait? Not hard to figure out what’s going to happen here.

Saudi, Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan are working on a diplomatic solution to Hormuz. Presumably they don't have much confidence the US can open it by force. The proposed solution of a consortium would include the US and Iran.

@FirstSquawk My guess is that the first war ship will be sunk before it even makes it through the strait to the other side, and the rest will turn around.

@FirstSquawk The US won’t bring any destroyers into the strait because they would be sunk pretty quickly, but let these other nations try I guess. It could potentially dampen the oil shock for a day or 2.

@KobeissiLetter What’s also illegal and unacceptable is starting a war without congressional approval.

BREAKING: Iran has drafted legislation to create the "Hormuz Law" which is expected create a formal toll system for the Strait of Hormuz. Preliminary details include: 1. Hormuz Law to introduce fees on navigation and pollution in the Strait of Hormuz 2. Draft legislation also includes creation of a "regional fund" 3. The move is seen as an attempt to formalize long-term tolls on global shipping routes 4. The US has called these tolls on the Strait of Hormuz both "illegal" and "unacceptable" The Strait of Hormuz situation is becoming even more complicated.

@MB_Hogan Not as rare as the largest oil shock the world has ever seen. Hasn't happened in many decades.

How rare is a 5-week S&P 500 losing streak? This is only the 2nd time this has happened in the last decade...