Simon Staszkiewicz

@gbrew24 It’s more nonsense to try to calm markets. Why do you think there are currently no US destroyers in the strait? Not hard to figure out what’s going to happen here.

Saudi, Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan are working on a diplomatic solution to Hormuz. Presumably they don't have much confidence the US can open it by force. The proposed solution of a consortium would include the US and Iran.

@FirstSquawk My guess is that the first war ship will be sunk before it even makes it through the strait to the other side, and the rest will turn around.

@FirstSquawk The US won’t bring any destroyers into the strait because they would be sunk pretty quickly, but let these other nations try I guess. It could potentially dampen the oil shock for a day or 2.

Countries met in Pakistan to prevent disruption in oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global crude supply. Proposal: •Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt may form a consortium to manage and secure tanker movement. •Pakistan has been asked to participate. •Objective is coordinated control, security, and smooth flow of oil shipments. Diplomatic angle: •Plan has been informally discussed with both the United States and Iran, indicating a de-escalation attempt rather than conflict. Why this matters: •Strait handles ~20% of global oil → any disruption spikes prices. •This plan aims to remove supply shock risk and stabilize shipping.

@KobeissiLetter What’s also illegal and unacceptable is starting a war without congressional approval.

BREAKING: Iran has drafted legislation to create the "Hormuz Law" which is expected create a formal toll system for the Strait of Hormuz. Preliminary details include: 1. Hormuz Law to introduce fees on navigation and pollution in the Strait of Hormuz 2. Draft legislation also includes creation of a "regional fund" 3. The move is seen as an attempt to formalize long-term tolls on global shipping routes 4. The US has called these tolls on the Strait of Hormuz both "illegal" and "unacceptable" The Strait of Hormuz situation is becoming even more complicated.

@MB_Hogan Not as rare as the largest oil shock the world has ever seen. Hasn't happened in many decades.

How rare is a 5-week S&P 500 losing streak? This is only the 2nd time this has happened in the last decade...

@CarlZha It'll buff out.

U.S officials said this E3 Sentry AWACS plane had been "damaged" The damage:

@ekwufinance Thank you! I've been pounding the table for days about the petrodollar. If they leave now and Iran starts tolling the strait? They could waive the toll for cargo paid in non-USD. This is why they can't leave and are about to be sucked into another disaster war.

Trump: losing world reserve currency would be worse than losing a major war, we wouldn't be the same country anymore And yet, it looks like the US is heading toward both. - It has suffered a humiliating defeat against Iran - Is about to lose the petrodollar The petrodollar system only works as long as the US can enforce it... militarily and politically. That was always the deal. Security in exchange for oil being sold in USD and surpluses being recycled into US assets. The GCC are quickly realizing that they got a target on their back instead of security. This means new alliances emerge, new deals are being made... multipolarity sets in That’s exactly what we are seeing now. - China is already pushing the yuan as an alternative. - yuan foreign bond issuance is surging 3x yoy - Iran demanding yuan for Hormuz transit Step by step, settlement moves away from USD. Less dollar demand -> less recycling into Treasuries -> higher yields -> more pressure on the system

@DarioCpx I would be more concerned with wheat. It's a larger global crop, and I believe the parts of the world where it's grown are the ones where fertilizer is more likely to be in shortage.

Dear followers, if anyone is expert on Corn please lmk in the comments. Currently looking into Corn because is the crop where the use of Nitrogen fertilisers made off Natural Gas is the most intense and there are going to be significant shortages of this soon because of Hormuz

@Nishant_Bliss They have told the world they want regime change. They're not getting it with bombing. They can't leave now or Iran will toll the strait and it will be a humiliating defeat. They will signal that they're talking/negotiating and Iran will deny it. Then they'll invade.

Yesterday, JD Vance signals the U.S. won’t stay in Iran for long. Today, Pentagon reports suggest possible troop deployment for the next 2 months. Tomorrow, don’t be surprised if Donald Trump talks ceasefire. My view is simple: The U.S. cannot afford a prolonged war right now. High debt, shaky markets, and internal protests against Trump are already building. Sustaining a long conflict only makes things worse. This ends sooner than most expect. Come back to this in a few days, you’ll likely see either a ceasefire, negotiations, or a complete de-escalation.

@ImBreckWorsham I have this theory that he has some sort of terminal illness and is now doing whatever he feels like doing that day, without really thinking about the consequences.

Do you think Trump is intentionally trying to destroy America because he’s evil, because he’s being blackmailed by Israel, or is he just senile and incompetent?

@Rory_Johnston I'm sure you've seen the highlights from the leadership convention. The NDP is imploding.

Mr factories full of sunlight [unsurprisingly] just won the contest to become the leader of Canada's New Democratic Party (NDP, the leftmost party in Canada) Wrong guy at the wrong time for Canadian progressivism.

@Jeremybtc I think Trump is turning into Baghdad Bob. His tweets are having less and less impact on the markets because he cried wolf too many times.

We are one Trump tweet away from the market moving 20% in either direction and that is not normal

@Rory_Johnston Markets remain irrational.

Global economy in a Straitjacket

@LukeGromen @nnzp1730 They're not though. They're still only going to know what's going on locally. Gas is more expensive. Food is more expensive. Interest rates are up. They're printing money again. Whatever, I have to get to work.

@nnzp1730 They’re about to find out in the next 2-3 weeks and it’s not going to be pleasant

I hope everyone here knows that …… 90% of people are clueless on what is going on in the world. You talk to people, they have no idea.

“Now tell them, Trump took a Sharpie, and drew a perfect map of the Middle East”

@StealthQE4 Not really. I think for poor and developing nations, their lives are seriously threatened by this war, but not ours. The rest of the world will get poorer than we will, but the US certainly isn't making any friends here. Look at nat gas prices in Europe.

Anyone else feel like our way of life is being threatened? Like things will never be the same after next week?

@Jamesrus42 Honestly maybe not. What if they leave and Iran tolls the strait? What if Iran waives the toll for ships that paid in non-USD? What would that do to the petrodollar?

Will the United States ever recover from the damage the Trump regime has done?

@SantiagoAuFund @LakeTime79 Suggesting that Iran preparing for war for 40 years is some sort of proof that the US has a plan. Also implying that Iran somehow knows the US plan, suggesting that somebody is leaking this imaginary plan to Iran.

@LakeTime79 @Stasmo What have I gotten wrong geopolitically? I’ve said this was coming…and here it is. That makes me wrong?

Curious if there are people who read this and think "Yes, I want this person to manage my money."

@StealthQE4 Sell half my oil stocks if crude gets too expensive. Export bans will come. Hold cash for the crash and wait for boomers to panic sell to protect their retirement. Buy as many gold miners I can as close to the bottom as I can.

The big question now is if we go in what do you do with your portfolio? I have a few ideas.

@aranseann @SantiagoAuFund I appreciate this post!

Ahh shit, and I shouldn’t be telling people to shut up over a social media account. I just think it’s unwise to be too damningly conclusive in our thinking. Life, politics, markets, all so complex it ain’t worth it to comment if you think it’s black and white, which is how your comment came across to me. You of course have your right to opinion and we’re all just trying to navigate it all. Please do carry on, thanks for engaging in discussion