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Max Tesla
255 posts
Max Tesla
@allsetmax
ceo @blask_research | competitive market intel | machine learning | personal opinions only
Bangkok Se unió Haziran 2022
549 Siguiendo62 Seguidores
@dreamsandcode curve flattens at week 3: tourists out, core users in.
after that it's a standing tab. CFO doesn't remember signing up - just checks it on mondays.
tiggtened onboarding last month. january cohorts hit 71% in week 1
the floor's moving up
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@allsetmax 💯 Sign-ups are dopamine, return visits are proof. Those blask numbers at week 12 with zero spend? That's the product selling itself.
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@DustinGouker look, truist surveyed this last week: when bettors can pick between kalshi and draftkings, most pick draftkings
kalshi wins in states where sports betting isn't legal, everywhere else it's #2
the market heeps voting for the predatory house
gamblingnews.com/news/draftking…
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@jesswelman @DustinGouker I'll cite the herald here (@matthew_medsger)
last september the mass gaming commission put it on record: licensed sportsbooks stake-factor winners without telling them
losers get flagged for VIP treatment and parlay upsells
bostonherald.com/2025/09/30/win…
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@DustinGouker "fun consumption good" is a great euphemism I will be using again in the future.
"Why would you call it gambling? It's a fun consumption good."
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We are to the stage of prediction markets where it’s like going to the movies! DraftKings CEO said this 10 years ago about daily fantasy!
Time is a flat circle.
Also gambling is not the same as going to the movies.
Benn Eifert 🥷🏴☠️@bennpeifert
This is all getting so much hate. idk, take your moralizing elsewhere. Betting a little money on March Madness is a fun consumption good, it's literally no different than going out and spending money on movies or vodka tonics. Literally no one thinks they're going to get rich.
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@jesswelman @DustinGouker technically accurate tbh - "fun consumption good" also describes the top 5% of bettors generating 86% of sportsbook revenue; DraftKings has entire teams dedicated to keeping those particular consumers consuming
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@DustinGouker what i see - every state lobbying deck calls it entertainment first; same operators brief investors on "whale identification" and "hi-value player retention" two slides later
5% of bettors, 86% of sportsbook revenue - not quite the march madness casual crowd benn's talkin about
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@Pete_yes_please @kasentuner @FedericoNoemie file scope is layer one
below it: which tools each skills can call, which hooks fire, what context pre-loads before the agent sees anything. /tweet hits the web while /summarize-meeting is sandbox-only. 19 skills, 19 defferent permission sets
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@allsetmax @kasentuner @FedericoNoemie "Which files each agent can actually touch" — that's the right abstraction.
Most people optimize prompts. You've hit the authorization layer.
That's where real leverage lives. File scope is just the beginning.
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@FedericoNoemie @supermemory @FedericoNoemie didn't know supermemory existed when i build this - forked smart-connections, rewrote it from scratch, pgvector underneath and gemini embeddings 2
supermemory is a saas product; mine is middleware i modified line by line
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@kasentuner @FedericoNoemie ironically i build ai - found zero actual usecases for the while-true *-claw loop in pkn
pkm only works if you're tinkering with it: autonomous agents remove exactly that
spent 2 years on chatpt, came back when i started caring about which files each agent can actually touch
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@allsetmax @FedericoNoemie came here to say this.
are u using multiple agents with it?
for instance im using Claude code with it but im tempted to give zeroclaw access to that vault as well
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@kasentuner @FedericoNoemie yeah, 19 custom skills, each specialized
tweet research, meeting summaries, market briefings - all reading same local files, claude code is just the runtime
zeroclaw should work fine: vault's plain markdown, so any agent reads it, structure is what compounds, same either way
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good coverage from our partners @SiGMAworld_
the detail that reframes the 61%: only 21% of americans have even heard of prediction markets. that's who the poll surveyed
arizona just filed criminal charges against kalshi. the other 79% are still figuring out what a prediction market is 😂
Jenny Ortiz@JennyOrtizB
📊 Are prediction markets really investing or just gambling in disguise? A new @aibm_org-@Ipsos poll reveals that 61% of Americans see #predictionmarkets as closer to #gambling, not investing. #US #iGaming 👉 Read more in my @SiGMAworld_ report: sigma.world/news/predictio…
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@stevebrubaker @CFTC @ChairmanSelig @Kalshi @DraftKings dk sportsbook voids bets on withdrawn players - early exit program, been standard for years
dk prediction markets: +9900 on players who'd left valspar, while kalshi faces 20 misdemeanor charges in arizona for runnin' an "illegal sportsbook"
it handled this cleaner than legal😎
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@cftc @chairmanselig @kalshi has ceased offering markets on players who withdrew from the Valspar. How about you telling @DraftKings to knock this shit off and tell all PMs to stop offering markets when they no that they are impossible to win.
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the letters of marque analogy is sharp - privateers used private resources to serve state interests
"magamyman" placed his first iran bet 71 minutes before news broke publicly, at 17% probability, made $500k
if he had open-source intel - discovery. if he had classified intel - the privateer stole the crown's maps before sailin'
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Prediction markets are more than gambling.
They're modern letters of marque like those used by Congress to seize 🇬🇧 ships during the War of 1812
I spoke to the CFTC's @MichaelSelig and @robinhanson
for this piece in @washingtonpost
wapo.st/4lB9znD
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"wall street investors" is the bullish case actually
draftkings vig on the same MLB game polymarket just became exclusive partner of: 5-7%. kalshi market maker spread on a liquid contract: ~2¢
Joon Lee@joonlee
Prediction Markets claim you’re betting against other users, but you’re really betting against Wall Street investors Prediction markets are sports gambling with a better PR strategy
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the smartest aeo/geo companies are using perplexity’s search api like a super-weapon
they realize you can actually see what is getting ranked and retrieved by LLMs at mass-scale (200m+ daily perplexity queries) vs prompting llms to try to get answers
this is real alpha
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nhl signed official partner deals with polymarket in october. mlb today. leagues are runnin' the post-PASPA playbook: integrity concern, then mou with cftc, then official partner
multiple states are suing polymarket to "protect sports integrity." didn't baseball just gave them the logo and the data rights?
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The idea that some people are pushing that Polymarket is "offshore" is becoming increasingly irrelevant, I think is one of the lessons of today's news.
The MLB deal is as much about establishing legitimacy as it is anything else.
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the real question isn't whether prediction markets can crack europe's wall. it's who has the mandate to say yes.
gambling regulators license existing categories. MiFID owns financial instruments...
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iGB@iGamingBusiness
European regulators continue to block prediction markets like Polymarket, as legal, structural and philosophical differences deepen the divide with the US over how the products should be classified and regulated. Read here: bit.ly/4lIThcq
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