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Max Tesla
245 posts
Max Tesla
@allsetmax
ceo @blask_research | competitive market intel | machine learning | personal opinions only
Bangkok Katılım Haziran 2022
543 Takip Edilen59 Takipçiler
@FedericoNoemie obsidian + claude code
pkm where the data lives on your machine, and custom ai skills off plain markdown + vector search
compounding daily at blask; every other tool on the list forgets you between sessions
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good coverage from our partners @SiGMAworld_
the detail that reframes the 61%: only 21% of americans have even heard of prediction markets. that's who the poll surveyed
arizona just filed criminal charges against kalshi. the other 79% are still figuring out what a prediction market is 😂
Jenny Ortiz@JennyOrtizB
📊 Are prediction markets really investing or just gambling in disguise? A new @aibm_org-@Ipsos poll reveals that 61% of Americans see #predictionmarkets as closer to #gambling, not investing. #US #iGaming 👉 Read more in my @SiGMAworld_ report: sigma.world/news/predictio…
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@stevebrubaker @CFTC @ChairmanSelig @Kalshi @DraftKings dk sportsbook voids bets on withdrawn players - early exit program, been standard for years
dk prediction markets: +9900 on players who'd left valspar, while kalshi faces 20 misdemeanor charges in arizona for runnin' an "illegal sportsbook"
it handled this cleaner than legal😎
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@cftc @chairmanselig @kalshi has ceased offering markets on players who withdrew from the Valspar. How about you telling @DraftKings to knock this shit off and tell all PMs to stop offering markets when they no that they are impossible to win.
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the letters of marque analogy is sharp - privateers used private resources to serve state interests
"magamyman" placed his first iran bet 71 minutes before news broke publicly, at 17% probability, made $500k
if he had open-source intel - discovery. if he had classified intel - the privateer stole the crown's maps before sailin'
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Prediction markets are more than gambling.
They're modern letters of marque like those used by Congress to seize 🇬🇧 ships during the War of 1812
I spoke to the CFTC's @MichaelSelig and @robinhanson
for this piece in @washingtonpost
wapo.st/4lB9znD
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"wall street investors" is the bullish case actually
draftkings vig on the same MLB game polymarket just became exclusive partner of: 5-7%. kalshi market maker spread on a liquid contract: ~2¢
Joon Lee@joonlee
Prediction Markets claim you’re betting against other users, but you’re really betting against Wall Street investors Prediction markets are sports gambling with a better PR strategy
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the smartest aeo/geo companies are using perplexity’s search api like a super-weapon
they realize you can actually see what is getting ranked and retrieved by LLMs at mass-scale (200m+ daily perplexity queries) vs prompting llms to try to get answers
this is real alpha
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nhl signed official partner deals with polymarket in october. mlb today. leagues are runnin' the post-PASPA playbook: integrity concern, then mou with cftc, then official partner
multiple states are suing polymarket to "protect sports integrity." didn't baseball just gave them the logo and the data rights?
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The idea that some people are pushing that Polymarket is "offshore" is becoming increasingly irrelevant, I think is one of the lessons of today's news.
The MLB deal is as much about establishing legitimacy as it is anything else.
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the real question isn't whether prediction markets can crack europe's wall. it's who has the mandate to say yes.
gambling regulators license existing categories. MiFID owns financial instruments...
1/3
iGB@iGamingBusiness
European regulators continue to block prediction markets like Polymarket, as legal, structural and philosophical differences deepen the divide with the US over how the products should be classified and regulated. Read here: bit.ly/4lIThcq
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@inga1937 buenos aires lottery filed the complaint. casino association co-signed. nationwide block in 48 hours — argentina is now country 34.
that's the mechanism, made visible. in europe it's quieter: ANJ, GGL, UKGC all exist to license products that fit existing categories
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European regulators, who have been captured, are the ones blocking in the face of this threat.
But Europe needs this debate just as much as the U.S. does.
iGB@iGamingBusiness
European regulators continue to block prediction markets like Polymarket, as legal, structural and philosophical differences deepen the divide with the US over how the products should be classified and regulated. Read here: bit.ly/4lIThcq
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@OPReport @roundrobin42 has it right on the mechanism
but the cftc mou is different in kind; it's the regulator co-writing the oversight framework, not just endorsing from the sideline
arizona ag filed 20 counts against kalshi last week. cftc now has an active mlb agreement on record
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Obviously partnerships like this don’t carry direct legal weight per se’, but they do contribute to a sense of legitimacy and cultural permanence, which does end up having an impact on the legal process.
Mike Selig@ChairmanSelig
Today the @CFTC and @MLB made history by signing the first-ever MOU between a sports league and federal agency. We’ve committed to work together to protect the integrity and resilience of prediction markets relating to professional baseball. Through this partnership, the @CFTC is well-positioned to add additional tools to protect our markets from fraud, manipulation, and other abuses. Thanks to @MLB and Commissioner Manfred for working with us to protect the integrity of these growing markets. Read the full MOU⬇️ cftc.gov/PressRoom/Pres…
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@SteveRuddock @BenHorney @FOS mlb was warning players not to use prediction markets last summer
today: cftc co-regulator + $150-300M from polymarket for exclusive logo rights
the clase-ortiz pitch-rigging case was the best salesperson prediction markets ever had
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Ben Horney@BenHorney
SCOOP: MLB is getting into the prediction-market business through a multi-year deal with Polymarket. Polymarket will be the exclusive prediction-market partner of MLB and will be the only platform allowed to use team logos and marks, sources tell @FOS. frontofficesports.com/mlb-makes-mult…
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This seems important.
Coupled with the announcement that MLB has inked a deal with Polymarket, I guess I know what we'll be talking about today. Can't wait to see what tomorrow brings.
Mike Selig@ChairmanSelig
Today the @CFTC and @MLB made history by signing the first-ever MOU between a sports league and federal agency. We’ve committed to work together to protect the integrity and resilience of prediction markets relating to professional baseball. Through this partnership, the @CFTC is well-positioned to add additional tools to protect our markets from fraud, manipulation, and other abuses. Thanks to @MLB and Commissioner Manfred for working with us to protect the integrity of these growing markets. Read the full MOU⬇️ cftc.gov/PressRoom/Pres…
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wisconsin just passed a tribal monopoly bill for online sports betting, the governor says he won't sign until he talks to tribal leaders who haven't backed the deal
the irony: the entire bill was designed as a gift to tribes - exclusive monopoly, 60%+ revshare - and even they can't agree they want it
meanwhile, bovada has been running 24% of wisconsin's gambling market for years, unlicensed, with zero meetings required
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Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) has yet to make a decision on the state's approved online sports betting bill.
He has noted no timeline for a decision.
First reported by @WBAY.
sportsbettingdime.com/news/betting/w…
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we tried to examine the same thing, audited one /tweet session: 1,206,434 tokens, ~$0.77
the model wasn't the main variable. cursor-ide-browser MCP injects ~8,663 tokens of tool definitions into every single request - can't be disabled, it's not even in mcp.json
plus anthropic caches the system prompt cross-session (5min TTL) - new chat doesn't escape the cache read
the IDE scaffolding was eating more than the actual task
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I am hearing tons of complaints from Cursor customers at enterprise companies:
A silent change put almost all models Cursor uses behind Max mode. Devs who used to manage to “spread out” monthly credits over a month see all of it used up in 1-2 days. Are furious + switching.
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good explainer geoff
blask data adds a layer: wisconsin's maturity index is 85.4 - it already behaves like a developed market despite having zero licensed online operators
Geoff Zochodne@GeoffZochodne
Get ready to learn “hub-and-spoke,” Badger State: Here’s How Wisconsin Will Launch Online Sports Betting covers.com/industry/wisco… @Covers
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